Does Everybody Own Kyle Schwarber?

I’d like to thank everybody who participated in Monday’s Your Keeper Questions, Answered. As of now, the post has received 422 comments, about 150 of which are me responding to questions. After a jet lag fueled marathon session from 1 to 7 am on Tuesday morning, I’m about tapped out on keeper advice. Feel free to ping me on Twitter (@BaseballATeam) if I didn’t get to your keeper conundrum.

Today, let’s chat about a common keeper option. On the whole, FanGraphs readers appear to have been very likely to acquire certain fresh breakout stars like Mookie Betts, Kris Bryant, Jacob deGrom, and Jake Arrieta. One player who seemed to appear in every question was Kyle Schwarber.

When you have your options narrowed down to one of Betts or Schwarber, you know you’re in a fantastic position. In a perfect year, Betts could produce 50 HR+SB, over 200 R+RBI, and a .300 average. You almost have to keep a five category monstrosity like that, even if the end result is likely to be closer to 90/15/70/20/.290.

Schwarber by comparison profiles as a power and RBI guy. I picture the top of the Cubs lineup as some combination of Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist with Anthony Rizzo third and Bryant fourth. That means Schwarber gets Bryant’s leavings in the fifth spot.

Only two factors favor Schwarber over a player of Betts’ ilk – position and cost. Schwarber is a catcher in most formats, and I’m fairly confident he’ll hang onto the eligibility for at least one more season. We’ll see.

Catcher isn’t actually thin this year. I’m comfortable with between 20 and 25 of the names at the position. However, Schwarber has one tangible quality that he shares with only Buster Posey – an every day role. Nearly all catchers will max out around 550 plate appearances. Only Posey (623 PA), Derek Norris (557 PA), and Salvador Perez (553 PA) crossed that threshold last season.

Managing games played for catchers can be a challenge, even in leagues with plenty of bench space. Most starting catchers get Sundays off (and any day game after a night game) which means you can’t just roster Brian McCann and Wilson Ramos to get to 162 games played. They’ll often share off days.

Schwarber will allow his owners to hack around this catching issue. Since he’s young and will mostly be an everyday outfielder, he should reach over 150 games played. If you platoon him between catcher and outfield with another actual catcher, you shouldn’t have a hard time maxing out catcher games. When is the last time you’ve done that (ottoneu excluded)?

For many of his owners, Schwarber’s keeper cost is more attractive than the alternatives. Bryant might take a third round pick, but Schwarber rarely costs more than a 12th rounder. In leagues with costs, one of the most difficult decision parameters revolves around the opportunity cost of taking the better player near cost or the lesser player at a big bargain. Few would argue that Schwarber merits a higher pick than Bryant, but the nine round differential in this hypothetical example may flip the analysis. I think it does.

And so, in most of my keeper responses, I recommended Schwarber. You’re all lucky to be in a situation where you’re deciding between two players of Schwarber’s ilk. There almost isn’t a wrong decision when the choice is a cheap Schwarber or a slightly less cheap Betts.

My only advice is to analyze your own strengths and weaknesses. If you’re constantly leaving games on the table with your catchers, then Schwarber is a great option. If you can usually manage more ordinary catchers successfully, then go ahead with the alternatives. If you’re considering an outfielder over Schwarber, how good are you at digging up value? If you routinely roster a Lorenzo Cain or David Peralta, then the opportunity cost may shift back in favor of Schwarber.