Archive for Keeper Strategy

I’d like to thank everybody who participated in Monday’s Your Keeper Questions, Answered. As of now, the post has received 422 comments, about 150 of which are me responding to questions. After a jet lag fueled marathon session from 1 to 7 am on Tuesday morning, I’m about tapped out on keeper advice. Feel free to ping me on Twitter (@BaseballATeam) if I didn’t get to your keeper conundrum.

Today, let’s chat about a common keeper option. On the whole, FanGraphs readers appear to have been very likely to acquire certain fresh breakout stars like Mookie Betts, Kris Bryant, Jacob deGrom, and Jake Arrieta. One player who seemed to appear in every question was Kyle Schwarber.

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Not long ago, I wrote about Carlos Carrasco as a potential (but probably not) top five pitcher. The comments section of that article unexpectedly turned into a keepers quiz. Should I keep Luis Severino or Steven Matz? Which two of Carrasco, Danny Salazar, and Cole Hamels should I hang onto? If an article about Carrasco bubbled over into keeper questions, then surely there is demand for third party input.

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My ottoneu rivals are conspiring against me. Not really, it just feels that way because several have reached a conclusion that is not beneficial to me. Luckily, I have some options. And if those don’t work, I have one final spiteful course of action available.

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Before agreeing to join Chad Young in the management of his dynasty franchise, I had never really co-managed a team. There were a few situations in which I drafted a team and handed it over (and vice versa) but never a true collaborative process. In a properly deep league (like dynasty), having an associate is an enjoyable experience.

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A couple weeks ago, I lamented the state of trading in my dynasty league, The Devil’s Rejects. I run a team with Chad Young in this 20-owner, 45-player roster, keep-28 league. At the time of my last piece, Chad and I had run into a snag. When we tried to trade good veterans for prospects we were told to take a hike. When we tried to trade prospects for good veterans, we were told to take a hike. Frustrating…

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Tell me if this sounds familiar. You try to acquire a top prospect using a high quality established veteran – say J.D. Martinez or Charlie Blackmon. You’re quickly rebuffed. Sensing the possibility of market distortion, you try to sell your top prospects – like Nomar Mazara. You’re offered piles of dross.

Or how about this? You try to sell an over-30 core player. Crickets. You try to buy an over-30 core player. You’re told, and I quote “there’s no one on your roster that would get Robinson Cano.” Said roster still includes Martinez, Blackmon, Mazara, and many other quality keepers.

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We’ve had our first big offseason trade in the ottoneu league FanGraphs Staff Two. Chad Young and prospect guy Marc Hulet combined for a doozy. In the aftermath of the trade, Chad and I discussed the relative value of his players versus similar guys I had available. While I’ll refer to our ottoneu league, today’s topic has implications for most keeper leagues.

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On the ottoneu Slack community, this week featured an interesting debate on the merits of spending on Mike Trout at an ottoneu auction. There were two things posited about Trout:

1. Keeping/buying Trout and leaving the auction with him ties up too much money in one player, thereby hurting your chances to field a competitive team, and
2. Because of this, the team that does buy Trout is almost always looking to sell him, so you can get him later (with loans) anyway.

I disagreed, arguing that unless the market was messed up, paying fair value for any player should not hurt you unless that player underperforms. Agreement was not to be found, so data needed to be found instead.
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There is just over a week left in ottoneu arbitration (11/14 deadline!) and rather than rehash what Brad Johnson and I have stated in the past, I thought I’d look at arbitration from the point of view of the allocation target.

I’ve gone ad nauseum about what I try to do when I make my allocations, but it can be valuable to relfect on my reactions to what my teams are getting hit with. If something causes me angst, it’s probably a good way to go after my opposition, too.
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First base prospects are probably the easiest to analyze for fantasy and dynasty purposes. At other positions, particularly up the middle, we’re left to guess future production. Some guys grow, some just adjust well to major league pitcher (Joe Panik), and others linger for years before flashing upside (Zack Cozart). Unlike those skilled positions, a player does not become a first base prospect if he’s not already demonstrating serious talent at the plate.

With that in mind, let’s talk about my four favorite first base prospects. Three of these guys are adjacent to the majors which means they’re owned in any self-respecting dynasty league. This article isn’t about guys you can find for free, it’s meant to highlight the biggest up-and-coming names at the position.

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