Archive for Injuries

Last season at BaseballHQ ($$), I found the expected results for hitters returning from Tommy John surgery (TJS). The research was completed with traditional stats and no StatCast information was utilized. The reason was that only one regular, Christian Vazquez, had Tommy John surgery since there was publicly available StatCast data. That changed when five hitters had the surgery last year. With the return of Didi Gregorius, all have made it to the majors. Sadly the early returns are unspectacular with Corey Seager and Shohei Ohtani struggling.

In his first three seasons, Seager posted a .876 OPS but past two seasons it has only been a .793 OPS. I included last season because he struggled while trying to play through the injury. For Ohtani, he posted a .925 OPS last year and just a .742 OPS this season. These values line up with the original TJS article.

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After going over the pitchers who changed their velocity from 2018 to 2019, the pitchers who have seen changes this year get highlighted today. For the first week or so, pitchers who saw major adjustments were in the crosshairs of the fantasy community. But who from that list kept the changes? A pitcher’s talent shouldn’t get anchored to one early-season report. It’s time to dive in.

About the data

• I use the fastball’s average spin rate and velocity along with the pitcher’s overall Zone% to come up in the Injury metric. With spin rate, I’ve seen pitchers try to keep up their velocity while dealing with an injury and the pitch’s spin changes. As for Zone%, if a pitcher is having issues finding the plate, they may have something mechanically wrong.
• The Injury value ranges from a -100 (several negative forces are at work) to +100 (major improvements).
• A pitcher can have more than one fastball in the table
• When examining the 2019 data, I’m comparing velocities from the past week to fastballs thrown before this past week.
• All the numbers are available in this overall spreadsheet.

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Most analysts listened when I made this pre-season request.

The only useful fantasy baseball analysis over the next two weeks should be:

1. Pitcher velo and repertoire
2. Lineups
3. Bullpen usage

Anything else is just useless fluff.

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) March 28, 2019

Almost too good. Every time I thought about writing about today’s topic, another writer stepped up. I’m done waiting and it is time to see which fastballs have changed, for the better or worse, since last year.

Instead of focusing just on velocity, I add in the fastball’s spin rate and the pitcher’s overall Zone%. With spin rate, I’ve seen pitchers try to keep up their velocity while dealing with an injury and the pitch’s spin changes. As for Zone%, if a pitcher is having issues finding the plate, they may have something mechanically wrong. By combining the three factors together, I’ve come up with an overall ‘Injury’ value where a -100 score means several negative forces are at work.

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Another week into the season and another week of drops. I’ve categorized all the drops in 10 or more NFBC Main Event Leagues and some other names I find interesting.

Hurt

• Steven Souza Jr. (27)
• Hunter Strickland (21)
• Andrew Heaney (14)
• Mark Trumbo (12): The 33-year-old is out at least two months and his owners are likely dealing with a roster crunch. On one team, I dropped Justin Upton.
• Corey Knebel (11)
• Elias Diaz (11)

Demoted

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A tale of two Shoulders, how Carlos Martinez and Luis Severino differ for 2019.

Let’s begin with Carlos Martinez.  In ’18 he missed time in June due to an oblique injury. After returning, he left a game vs. Colorado on July 30th with a shoulder strain. Martinez returned just three weeks later in a relief role. He excelled as a closer the rest of the season. This season took a negative turn in February when the shoulder started acting up again. Instead of a traditional cortisone shot Martinez received A PRP (platelet-rich plasma) injection a few weeks ago.

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A few sidelined Seattle Marines may not return as most expect. Here’s the inside information to factor in on draft day.

Mallex Smith

Despite an elbow injury that has kept Mallex Smith out for the entire spring, not many people seem to be worried. Well, I for one, am quite concerned. Mallex Smith was approved to begin throwing on March 8th. Throwing programs for outfielders entail ramping up in throwing distance & volume. Read the rest of this entry »

A few years ago I posted an article about designing fantasy league incentives.  While the popularity of customized, add-on incentives is hard to measure across the fantasy community, it’s clear that leagues conceptually understand the potential value of features and rewards that attempt to keep owners engaged over the course of a long baseball season.  In the standard winner-takes-all format of many points leagues, commissioners are often left to mitigate the wreckage of AWOL owners that sell off and check out early, so carrots, even small ones, can help in cross-checking drastic, standings-shaking transactions if designed thoughtfully. But designing the right league incentives is easier said than done because owners are motivated by different values.

The purpose of this article is for you, the reader, to help me design the right incentive structure for the very first 20 team Ottoneu league (more on this soon), an exciting experiment that will dramatically alter the traditional economic model that serves as the foundation of standard 12 team Ottoneu leagues. Your feedback will be critical to building a league that lasts, but the discussion will hopefully be a helpful reference for others attempting to structure leagues that are as engaging as possible.

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The spring training fastball velocities are live and available in this spreadsheet with other spring training tidbits.

Note: I’m not sure not detailed and often I’ll be able to go with future notes. MLB.com had a nice free RSS feed with all of their stories and I could quickly find needed information. They ended the feed with no explanation. So now, I’m forced to go to each website to get information. I’m working on a solution but I haven’t found one I’ve liked.

Injuries

● I’m not tracking every injury unless it’s going to cost a position player some regular season time. For pitchers, I never assume they are healthy so they may see more notes. For example, Odubel Herrera has a hamstring strain but should be back in a week. I don’t care … for now.

Odubel Herrera has a Grade 1 hamstring strain and is "coming along," #Phillies manager Gabe Kapler said. Herrera has missed the first four games of spring training and the team is not sure when his first game will be.

— Matt Breen (@matt_breen) February 25, 2019

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A few days back, I determined the replacement levels for hitters who will miss some time this upcoming season. Today, the pitchers take center stage.

It’s tough to give any pitcher a full season of innings with almost half of them heading to the IL. Today’s focus is to find those pitchers who won’t see a full workload for one reason or another. Workload limits. Injuries. Time in minors. Since the missed time is known, an owner can the fill in the rest of the season with a replacement pitcher. It’s time to dive in.

Injured or coming off Tommy Surgery

Note: The standard minimum return time from Tommy John surgery is now 14 months. No one in years has come back in 12. I’m skipping any pitcher who had a mid-season or later surgery since they may just be back for a few September starts. I’m not going to worry about September starts in Spring Training.

Brandon Morrow
Out until: ~May 1st

While it may be a mistake, I’m fading Morrow hard. He’s an injury-prone pitcher who is starting the season hurt. And for a closer, he’s good (~2.00 ERA the past three seasons) but not great (9.1 K/9 in 2018). I could see Pedro Stroop take the job and run with it over the first month. When Morrow returns, he may never get another Save. He’s a late round DL stash for now.

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News broke on Friday that Francisco Lindor would be out seven to nine weeks with a strained calf. The reaction to the injury was swift. In NFBC’s Online Championship before the injury news, he had a 4.8 ADP in ten contests. In the two contests over the weekend, his ADP dropped to 16.5 after Jose Altuve, Javier Baez, Alex Bregman, and Trevor Story. So, is the drop deserved or did they drop him too far or not far enough? I’m going to fully breakdown how much I would change his value in a sample league.

With so many league variations, I need to pick a lane with his value adjustment. I going to take a 15-team roto league using AVG. For this league, I’ll use the Standing Gains Points (formulas in my book) as a shortcut to help determine his value and use couple tools to help speed along the process.

Add in replacement level

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