Archive for Injuries

Why We Missed: Disappointing Hitters

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October 30, 2019

It’s time for the final installment of “Why We Missed”. The breakout pitchers and hitters are done along with the disappointing pitchers so it’s time to dive into hitting busts.

To determine who disappointed, I collected the information on any hitters who saw more than a $10 decline in value from their draft-day price. I didn’t want to just use the difference in ranks because the gap from #1 to #15 could be over $10 but the difference between #250 to #300 might just be $1. I only analyzed the hitters who had a positive draft day value.
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Why We Missed: Disappointing Pitchers

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October 28, 2019

After looking at the pitchers and hitters who exceeded expectations, it was time to examine the players who didn’t live up to their ADP. I had a good idea this list would be loaded with pitchers who missed a ton of time and I was correct. Of the 48 pitchers featured, 39 spent time on the IL at some point last season.

To determine who disappointed, I collected the information on any pitcher who saw more than a $10 decline in value from their draft-day price. I didn’t want to just use the difference in ranks because the gap from #1 to #15 could be over $10 but the difference between #250 to #300 might just be $1. I just analyzed the pitchers who had a positive draft day value.

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My Final 2019 Results: It Could Have Been Worse …

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October 4, 2019

… but not by much for teams I just owned …

My 2019 fantasy season did not live up to my standards with most of the struggles being self-inflicted. Here are some overarching themes I spotted with each league plus some additional points at the end.

Horrible FAAB management

I ran out of money in almost every league and spent too much FAAB on worthless assets. Looking back over the leagues, the root cause was chasing week-only plays. From my work writing “The Process”, I found out how valuable it is to grind out each week. Additionally, I ran the weekly FAAB projections here so I knew around what it would take to get each. Initially, I got the players and but dropped them a week or two later for better options with little to show for the FAAB spent

I need to set a FAAB limit for chasing week-only plays and just accept it’s fine to miss out on a few players. A week’s advantage is worth the same in week 1 or the final week. The rest of my FAAB can be used for chasing long term improvements. Some players may straddle the long-term and weekly play so the FAAB may come from both the weekly and long term pools. I need to have a plan and stick to it.
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Help Needed: Hitters Who Played Through a 2019 Injury

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October 1, 2019

While the 2019 season is still semi-fresh in everyone’s mind, I have one simple request. Which hitters played through an injury instead of going on the Injured List this past season?

I’ve collected the players for the past couple of seasons (2017 and 2018). It’s time to compile the 2019 list even though the effects on a projection may be limited. Here are the players I have so far.

Name: Injury (link)

Late adds

Marwin Gonzalez (link)

If anyone knows of anyone I missed, please say so in the comments with a link to the source. I not looking for guess but the player or his team saying he’s hurt. Thanks for the help.


Expectation for Hitters Returning from Tommy John

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June 12, 2019

Last season at BaseballHQ ($$), I found the expected results for hitters returning from Tommy John surgery (TJS). The research was completed with traditional stats and no StatCast information was utilized. The reason was that only one regular, Christian Vazquez, had Tommy John surgery since there was publicly available StatCast data. That changed when five hitters had the surgery last year. With the return of Didi Gregorius, all have made it to the majors. Sadly the early returns are unspectacular with Corey Seager and Shohei Ohtani struggling.

In his first three seasons, Seager posted a .876 OPS but past two seasons it has only been a .793 OPS. I included last season because he struggled while trying to play through the injury. For Ohtani, he posted a .925 OPS last year and just a .742 OPS this season. These values line up with the original TJS article.

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Changing Fastballs (4/18/19)

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April 18, 2019

After going over the pitchers who changed their velocity from 2018 to 2019, the pitchers who have seen changes this year get highlighted today. For the first week or so, pitchers who saw major adjustments were in the crosshairs of the fantasy community. But who from that list kept the changes? A pitcher’s talent shouldn’t get anchored to one early-season report. It’s time to dive in.

About the data

  • I use the fastball’s average spin rate and velocity along with the pitcher’s overall Zone% to come up in the Injury metric. With spin rate, I’ve seen pitchers try to keep up their velocity while dealing with an injury and the pitch’s spin changes. As for Zone%, if a pitcher is having issues finding the plate, they may have something mechanically wrong.
  • The Injury value ranges from a -100 (several negative forces are at work) to +100 (major improvements).
  • A pitcher can have more than one fastball in the table
  • When examining the 2019 data, I’m comparing velocities from the past week to fastballs thrown before this past week.
  • All the numbers are available in this overall spreadsheet.

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Changing Fastballs

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April 12, 2019

Most analysts listened when I made this pre-season request.

Almost too good. Every time I thought about writing about today’s topic, another writer stepped up. I’m done waiting and it is time to see which fastballs have changed, for the better or worse, since last year.

Instead of focusing just on velocity, I add in the fastball’s spin rate and the pitcher’s overall Zone%. With spin rate, I’ve seen pitchers try to keep up their velocity while dealing with an injury and the pitch’s spin changes. As for Zone%, if a pitcher is having issues finding the plate, they may have something mechanically wrong. By combining the three factors together, I’ve come up with an overall ‘Injury’ value where a -100 score means several negative forces are at work.

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Who is Being Dropped & Why (Week 2)

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April 1, 2019

Another week into the season and another week of drops. I’ve categorized all the drops in 10 or more NFBC Main Event Leagues and some other names I find interesting.

Hurt

Demoted

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Injury Outlook: Carlos Martinez and Luis Severino

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March 15, 2019

A tale of two Shoulders, how Carlos Martinez and Luis Severino differ for 2019.

Let’s begin with Carlos Martinez.  In ’18 he missed time in June due to an oblique injury. After returning, he left a game vs. Colorado on July 30th with a shoulder strain. Martinez returned just three weeks later in a relief role. He excelled as a closer the rest of the season. This season took a negative turn in February when the shoulder started acting up again. Instead of a traditional cortisone shot Martinez received A PRP (platelet-rich plasma) injection a few weeks ago.

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Injury Outlook – Kyle Seager, Mallex Smith

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March 15, 2019

A few sidelined Seattle Marines may not return as most expect. Here’s the inside information to factor in on draft day.

Mallex Smith

Despite an elbow injury that has kept Mallex Smith out for the entire spring, not many people seem to be worried. Well, I for one, am quite concerned. Mallex Smith was approved to begin throwing on March 8th. Throwing programs for outfielders entail ramping up in throwing distance & volume. Read the rest of this entry »


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