The Is It Too Early Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ian Kahn

Strategy Section

• Is it too early?
  • Is it too early for individual scoring categories to matter?
  • Is it too early to play the matchups based on category standings?
  • Is it too early to punt categories or to alter your pre-season strategy?
  • Is it too early to evaluate how you did at the draft table?
  • Is it too early to cut a player that you spent meaningful draft capital on?

Hot / Cold Starts

• Cold Players
  • Patrick Corbin
  • Luis Castillo
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
  • Francisco Lindor
• Hot Players
  • Cedric Mullins
  • Byron Buxton
  • Jazz Chisholm
  • Matthew Boyd
  • Danny Duffy

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NEW FEATURE ALERT! We have added an upgraded version of RosterResource’s Closer Depth Chart to FanGraphs. Read more about it here.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

The 2021 version of Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News 
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save.)
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The First Week Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Glenn Colton

Intro

• Biggest regret of the draft season

Strategy Section

• How long into the season should you still use pre-season projections?
• Trading early in the season
• Fernando Tatis Jr.
  • Injury Update
  • What discount would you be willing to take in order to trade him away?
  • The Tatis trading market
• Setting fantasy lineups in April
• Setting waiver claims in April
• Closer volatility

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The Bold Predictions Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Scott Pianowski

Strategy Section

• 2021 Draft Trends
  • Starters pushed up
  • Reliever pricing
  • Prospects
• Adalberto Mondesi
  • Injury Update
  • The case for drafting him
  • The case against drafting him
    • Discussion of Risk and Risk-Adjusted Pricing
  • Comparison to Byron Buxton
  • Comparison to Carlos Gomez

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The Spring Training Injury Update Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Spring Training Injury Updates

Batters

• Alex Bregman
• Xander Bogaerts
• J.T. Realmuto
• Trent Grisham
• Rhys Hoskins
• Nick Madrigal
• Brandon Belt
• Ji-Man Choi
• Adam Haseley
• Lorenzo Cain
• Kole Calhoun
• Evan Longoria
• Miguel Andujar
• Brendan Rodgers
• Jarred Kelenic

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The Injury Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Stephania Bell of ESPN

Tommy John Surgery

• Timelines
• ** New TJS Procedure: Internal Brace
• Updates on returning TJS pitchers
  • Noah Syndergaard
  • Chris Sale
  • Luis Severino
• Updates on players with prior TJS
  • Jordan Hicks
  • Michael Kopech
• How to manage pitchers with elbow concerns in fantasy.

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I started diving into the dividing out the effects of injuries limited ramp time for the short season and didn’t get far. Some league-wide rates didn’t add up. Hitters who head to the IL are outperforming the healthy population.

Note: This analysis is math-heavy. I summarized my findings and questions at the end.

To start with, here are the league-wide OPS values for all nonpitchers as I compare the first month as players might have been ramping up.
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And the 2021 draft prep data dumps continue. Today, the injury chances for hitters and starters take center stage. I’ve been trying to wrap my head around injuries since I’ve started writing about baseball. The reason it’s a difficult subject to nail down is that the information is spotty.

Also, if a player checks all the factors to head to the IL (Injured List), he could have that one magical season (i.e Stephen Strasburg in 2019) when he never gets hurt. Adding to the mess is that the league moved from the 15-day IL to the 10-day IL, back to the 15-day IL (for only pitchers), and then just started making up rules for 2020. Through it all, the following risk assessments cut through a lot of the narratives and are solid going into next season.

Starting Pitchers

During the extended offseason, started reinvestigating my analysis of pitcher injury chances with a literature review, injury chances, and how injuries lead to increase aging. While age and fastball velocity are still factors, career IL days and arm injuries are most likely to point to future injuries and degraded performance. The simple thresholds were 120 career IL days and three or more arm injuries. Here is a list of the starters (min 10 IPin 2020) who meet both criteria (full list).
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10/12/20: Note: First, thanks to everyone for the help. Second, the comments are closed so if any player needs to be added, reach me at @jeffwzimmerman on Twitter. -Jeff

With the season just over, I’d like some help collecting the hitters who played through an injury in 2020. First, I’m not looking for those who may have struggled because of COVID-19 complications (e.g. Austin Meadows, Scott Kingery, Yoan Moncada). That’s another study for a later date.

The information can help fantasy managers help point to why a hitter may have struggled when their 2021 prep begins. Also, my research has shown that these hitters see a production decline. It’s one offseason data point to get out of the way.

Please let me know if I’m missing any in the comments. All I ask is that as much information as possible be provided like the location (e.g. hip), when (e.g. summer camp), or an article link. Just a name doesn’t help. From my own notes and begging on Twitter, here are the hitters I have so far (list from 2017, 2018, 2019). Thanks.
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Note: About 95% of this article was finished before the news that MLB is going forward with a 60 game season.  I finished it knowing that more imporant work needs to be done. This series now comes to an abrupt end and I will return to the series once the season is over one way or the other.

I’m continuing my quest to predict pitcher injuries and their effects as best as possible. I started grinding through the process last week and found through some additional work that injuries from just the past two seasons drag down production. Today, I’m going to go over some other possible other injury causes and provide updated injury ranks.

While I’ve done quite a bit of my own work on pitcher injuries, I decided to scour the web come up with some new ideas. Here are some possible ideas ranked by how I’d like to investigate them.
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