Beat the Shift Podcast – Injury Episode w/ Stephania Bell

The Injury Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Stephania Bell of ESPN

Tommy John Surgery

COVID & 2020 Short Season

  • Can pitchers effectively ramp up their innings in 2021?
    • Can pitchers reach 200 innings?
    • Which types of players have the greatest chance to succeed?
  • Updates on players out with COVID in 2020
  • Updates on players who opted out of the 2020 season

Spring Training Injury Issues

  • When should you be concerned about injuries in spring training?
  • How to seperate the signal from the noise from spring training injury information.

Mailbag / Other Injured Player Updates


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Ariel is the 2019 FSWA Baseball Writer of the Year. Ariel is also the winner of the 2020 FSWA Baseball Article of the Year award. He is the creator of the ATC (Average Total Cost) Projection System. Ariel was ranked by FantasyPros as the #1 fantasy baseball expert in 2019. His ATC Projections were ranked as the #1 most accurate projection system in 2019. Ariel also writes for CBS Sports, SportsLine, RotoBaller, and is the host of the Beat the Shift Podcast (@Beat_Shift_Pod). Ariel is a member of the inaugural Tout Wars Draft & Hold league, a member of the inaugural Mixed LABR Auction league and plays high stakes contests in the NFBC. Ariel is the 2020 Tout Wars Head to Head League Champion. Ariel Cohen is a fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SOA). He is a Vice President of Risk Management for a large international insurance and reinsurance company. Follow Ariel on Twitter at @ATCNY.

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Skin Blues
Skin Blues

Hi Ariel, I have an ATC question here. I love that InterSK / InterSD are now being included in your projections, because it gives an idea of what goes on inside the black box. One thing I’m thinking about though is how to consider the skew from projections that are not really incorporated into ATC.

For example, Dylan Moore’s InterSK went from 1.61 on Feb 24 down to -0.42 today, even though his ATC projection didn’t change. Same with Trevor Story who went from 0.28 skew, down to -1.51 skew. Similar thing with Yelich, too. So, whatever projection system had big changes for them, it wasn’t considered to be accurate enough to be incorporated into the ATC projections. Since we effectively ignore whatever system that is with respect to the projection, should we also ignore it wrt the skew? Or maybe do some kind of a weighted skew that more heavily considers the projection systems that are proven to be most accurate?