I’ve spent the last few articles releasing new projections. Today is no different and piggybacks off Monday’s article on single-season based pitcher projections or the GM’s. Today, it’s the hitters’ turn.

While the inspiration for these projections started with Giolito, I found I wanted the same dataset available for hitters. I took the players’ 2019 stats and regressed them to the league’s average rates and added in an aging factor. Finally, I prorated everyone to 600 PA.
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Today I continue the Prospect Scouting & Stats series, sticking with hitter power, but moving to raw power grades. We’ll start with raw power in the present (RPP) and then tomorrow will look at raw power in the future. Let’s discuss the 17 hitters that earned an RPP grade of at least 70. As a reminder, the table is sorted by RPP and then FV.

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Yesterday, I listed and discussed the 20 prospects who earned a Game Power – Present (GPP) grade of at least 50. Today, I shift the future and will list and discuss 19 prospects who earned a Game Power – Future (GPF) grade of at least 60 and earned an FV of at least 50. Since the number of 60+ GPF players was 39, I wanted to narrow down the least to make it a similar size as the GPP list.

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This week I continue my series on prospect scouting and stats. Today, let’s look at present hitter game power grades. While my High bucket encompassed present game power grades of at least 40, that was nearly a quarter of THE BOARD. So let’s only discuss the top of the top in the power department.

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With the season delayed, I’ve had time to dive into some shelved projects including creating some unique projections. Today, I’m going to introduce my StatCast hitter projections.

I created the projections with inspiration from “The Model Thinker” by Scott Page.* The author states, “do not put too much faith in one model”. To further explain this stance, he states:

“The lesson should be clear: if we can construct multiple diverse, accurate models, then we can make very acurate predictions and valuations and choose good actions.

…

Keep in mind, these second and third models need not be better than the first model. They could be worse. If they are a little less accurate, but categorically (in the literal sense) different, they should be added to the mix. “

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No.

As we continue to maintain hope that there will be a baseball season this year, last week I decided to have a bit of fun and build a $9 pitching staff using NFBC average auction values calculated from March 15. While that was a joy, commenter runningfrog demanded that I share what a $251 offense would look like. If I were to save all those auction dollars by buying such cheap pitching, how incredible might my offense look?! I decided to find out.

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Last week, I built a $14 offense using only $1 players from the NFBC average auction values starting March 15. The following day, I shared my $9 pitching staff. One commenter asked my thoughts on Taijuan Walker, who I realized wasn’t even rostered in any of the 8 leagues, even for a buck. So I completely forgot about him and hadn’t even considered those not purchased in any leagues. Commenter Johnnie T suggested I perform the same exercise, but this time only select from players not rostered in any of the auctions. Another fake draft?! Sure! There are now nine auctions run since March 15, so this 14-player offense will be solely composed of hitters who failed to be bought in any of them.

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Yesterday, I discussed six 2019 fantasy breakouts and concluded with a verdict as to whether I believed each was for real or would be a 2020 bust. Today, let’s flip to the 2019 busts.

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Two years ago during Fantasy Baseball Week at The Hardball Times, I researched whether last season’s breakouts were solid investments the following year. Spoiler alert: they are actually terrible investments. Of course, that’s as a group. That means that not every breakout from the previous season is going to fall flat the following year. So let’s discuss some of the big breakouts from 2019 and decide whether each turns out to be a poor investment bust or ends up holding onto their gains.

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