Blah, blah, some intro stuff on some guy that goes on too long. And here are the hitters who might be changing their launch angle (i.e. groundball rate).

Using Spring Training Ground Outs divided by Airball Outs (GO/AO), some possible swing plane changes might already be detectable. To find possible change, I found the hitters who had a combined 50% GB% and at least 300 PA from 2019 to 2020. Then, I removed those with fewer than 30 spring plate appearances and got the GO/AO values for the rest. Next, I converted the GO/AO to groundball rate (GB%) using the formula in this article. Finally, I just calculated the greatest differences and here are the results.

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Maximum Exit velocity is starting to get noticed more and more as the best single stat to measure a hitter’s raw power. While quite a bit has been written on it, the subject’s money quote is from Rob Arthur:

For every mile per hour above 108, a hitter is projected to gain about 6 points of OPS relative to their predicted number.

With several new Florida Spring Training ballparks getting publicly available Trackman, I sifted through all the games and found any players who set a new over 108 mph Exit Velocity high compared to the previous two seasons. Twenty-two players have seen improvement. Most of them had a limited number of plate appearances, so setting a new high should be expected. There are a few regulars who could see an improvement in 2021.

Alejandro Kirk
Combined PA: 25
2019 Max EV: NA
2020 Max EV: 107.4
Combined Max: 107.4
2021 Max EV: 110.3

Kirk has displayed power in the past and this jump is probably setting a baseline versus an actual power increase.

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Yesterday, I compared my Pod Projections in the stolen base category to Steamer and identified five hitters I am forecasting for a meaningfully higher stolen base total. Today, let’s now look at the hitters I’m projecting for fewer stolen bases than Steamer. I’ll only highlight the fantasy relevant names as there are a number projected for limited playing time that aren’t worth discussing.

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Today, I continue my Pod Projections vs Steamer battle, this time moving along to stolen bases. Similarly to the way I compared our home run forecasts, I’m going to calculate a PA/SB rate first and then extrapolate that projection over 650 plate appearances so we’re only comparing stolen base projections and playing time forecasts don’t factor in.

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Yesterday, I compared my Pod Projections to the Steamer projections to identify the hitters with home run upside. I calculated each hitter’s AB/HR rate and then extrapolated it over 600 at-bats. At that point, I compared how many home runs each system is forecasting, given a 600 at-bat projection. Today, I’ll share the names of hitters Pod is projecting for significantly fewer home runs than Steamer.

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The Spring Training Injury Update Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Spring Training Injury Updates

Batters

• Alex Bregman
• Xander Bogaerts
• J.T. Realmuto
• Trent Grisham
• Rhys Hoskins
• Nick Madrigal
• Brandon Belt
• Ji-Man Choi
• Adam Haseley
• Lorenzo Cain
• Kole Calhoun
• Evan Longoria
• Miguel Andujar
• Brendan Rodgers
• Jarred Kelenic

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Every year, I pit my Pod Projections against the Steamer projections in various categories. Today I’m going to continue the annual smackdowns by calculating AB/HR rates and then extrapolating them over 600 at-bats. At that point, I’ll compare how many home runs each system is forecasting, given a 600 at-bat projection. I’ll start by sharing the names of hitters Pod is projecting for significantly more home runs than Steamer. Many of these players figure to be part-timers, so consider them sleepers in deeper leagues.

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Playing time rules the day in fantasy baseball. The more of it your players have, the better you will do. It should go without saying that you want quality players logging that playing time, but in case anyone was unclear, I obviously believe that to be the case. It can be difficult to take a platoon player (under 130 gms) – even a good one – over someone playing at a slightly lesser clip but doing so 85%+ (~140+ gms) of the time.

Brett Gardner isn’t as good as Jesse Winker on a per plate appearance basis (103 to 125 in wRC+ since 2018), but he has 416 more PA giving him massive counting category edges. Finding the guys who can increase their playing time load in season is often a key separator in the winners and the losers. Here are five players who could fantasy stars if they find regular reps.

Yesterday I ran what ended up inadvertently being an NL edition of this so I didn’t want to leave the AL-Only folks hanging. I’m giving a couple extras because so many of the AL candidates are outfielders and I didn’t want to leave the infield empty handed.

Victor Reyes | DET | OF

Reyes fans had to be bummed by the Robbie Grossman and Nomar Mazara signings for the Tigers as they seem to have pushed Reyes to the bench with JaCoby Jones fulfilling the other role. The speedy 4th OF has been an avenue for cheap fantasy upside in the past and Reyes could absolutely be a draft day bargain because of his uncertain role. The switch-hitting 26-year-old has a career .271 AVG in 724 PA and that’s a bit depressed by his .222 AVG debut after being a Rule 5 pickup in 2018. Since then he is hitting .293/.327/.414 with 7 HR and 17 SB in 505 PA.

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Playing time rules the day in fantasy baseball. The more of it your players have, the better you will do. It should go without saying that you want quality players logging that playing time, but in case anyone was unclear, I obviously believe that to be the case. It can be difficult to take a platoon player (under 130 gms) – even a good one – over someone playing at a slightly lesser clip but doing so 85%+ (~140+ gms) of the time.

Brett Gardner isn’t as good as Jesse Winker on a per plate appearance basis (103 to 125 in wRC+ since 2018), but he has 416 more PA giving him massive counting category edges. Finding the guys who can increase their playing time load in season is often a key separator in the winners and the losers. Here are five players who could fantasy stars if they find regular reps.

Edwin Ríos | LAD | 4C (1B-3B-LF-RF)

Rios would start and bat in the top half of the lineup for at least half the league right now. While he is hardly a standout defender, his flexibility would help so many clubs fit his strong bat somewhere. Unfortunately, the Dodgers are definitely not one of those teams. All four positions he can play are blocked off by All Stars, but that same flexibility paired with the overall flexibility of this entire roster will give him a chance to be LA’s first man up should virtually any injury occur. The pieces can move to make Rios the man to cover any injury except catcher.

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Only two months after publishing the first one of this year, it’s time to get forecasting again with another 2021 Pod Projection! The 2021 forecasts are now available and include nearly 600 player lines. As usual, I’ll dive into my projection methodology (detailed in Projecting X 2.0) by sharing my process on several hitters and pitchers.

2021 Pod Projection Index
Ha-seong Kim

Today, I’ll analyze 2020 fantasy breakout, Padres outfielder Trent Grisham. A 2019 minor league performance spike between Double-A and Triple-A put him on fantasy owners’ radars, but his MLB debut that year was a mixed bag. Still, he entered the 2020 season as a trendy sleeper, and he certainly delivered on those hopes by going 10/10 over the short season and easily outearning his cost. Now, fantasy owners aren’t entirely sure how to value him. His NFBC ADP since Feb 1 sits around 71, but he’s gone as early as pick 46 and as late as 119. Clearly, there’s little agreement on his 2021 value, which isn’t too surprising given the limited MLB sample we have to evaluate. So let’s go metric by metric, discussing and projecting each, and ultimately calculating a full projection line, which will be compared to the rest of the forecasts shared on his player page.

Plate Appearances: 631

Grisham spent the majority of his time batting leadoff last season. When he didn’t hit leadoff, he typically batted second. So unless he endures an extended slump, expect him to hit at or near the top of the order. My projected PAs assume he hits leadoff, but I didn’t give him full credit considering the slight risk he takes a seat against some left-handers.

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