2021 Pod vs Steamer — SB Downside

Yesterday, I compared my Pod Projections in the stolen base category to Steamer and identified five hitters I am forecasting for a meaningfully higher stolen base total. Today, let’s now look at the hitters I’m projecting for fewer stolen bases than Steamer. I’ll only highlight the fantasy relevant names as there are a number projected for limited playing time that aren’t worth discussing.

After spending years as a strong OBP guy and little else, Robbie Grossman turned up the power last year, and combined with a breakout stolen base rate, suddenly became fantasy relevant. His stolen base spike came out of nowhere and was weird to see from a 30-year-old. Part of the driver of the gap in projected steals between Pod and Steamer is the latter’s higher OBP projection, which is highest among projection systems…by a meaningful margin. I’m also just not buying the stolen bases at all, as he was slower in 2020 than ever before, and that usually results in fewer steal attempts, not more. At age 31, he could just as easily drop back to his 2016-2018 stolen base rates.

Although he hasn’t played a game above High-A, Andrew Vaughn is expected to make his debut with the White Sox early on in the season, if he fails to break camp with the team. The top prospect owns 30 grade speed and has only attempted one steal over his short minor league career, in which he was caught. So I’m surprised to see Steamer so optimistic here. I’m projecting 0 steals, as I don’t see anything that would suggest he would, other than in an absolutely ideal situation or by accident.

You never know how moving to a new team is going to influence a hitter’s willingness to run, so we’re all somewhat speculating on Amed Rosario. Comparing projections, the difference here is clearly from OBP, as Steamer is once again the highest, and I’m well below the rest of the systems at just above his career average. The projection systems seem to be projecting nice growth based solely on age, whereas I put more weight on his expected numbers over his first four seasons.

For once, my OBP projection is higher than Steamer’s, this time as it relates to Rougned Odor, who I will never give up on! It’s only a small difference between the two forecasts, but clearly that’s not the driver of the stolen base gap. Odor’s stolen base attempt rate plummeted last year to about a third of previous seasons. Obviously, Steamer is projecting more than a rebound than I am. The reason I’m not as bullish is because Odor’s success rate has been brutal. Why let him run when he has rarely had a season where he succeeded at a breakeven clip? His career success rate is just 56%, which is awful. That should immediately bring a red light, or you’re just giving up potential runs. So I’m betting on team smarts winning out here and keeping Odor from stealing more often.

Suddenly, Cedric Mullins II is back in the fold for the Orioles and has been leading off, despite his historical shortcomings at actually getting on base. Yet again, Steamer is the highest projected OBP, while more falls more in line with the rest of the systems, so that explains some of the gap. Combine that with a higher projected success rate, and there’s your stolen base projection difference. Obviously, Mullins will need to hit the more optimistic of stolen base projections to produce any fantasy value, but it won’t matter if he doesn’t hit enough to keep a starting job.

Moving along to Bo Bichette, Pod and Steamer project almost identical OBP marks, so that’s not the driver of the discrepancy. Either is stolen base success rate, which are similar forecasts. Instead, it must be stolen base attempt rate, with Steamer likely weighing Bichette’s minor league rates more heavily than I am. The thing is, Bichette’s speed, as measured by HP to 1B, took a big hit last year, and declined relative to the league. Combine that with the expectation he’s now a middle of the order hitter, I actually see more home run upside than stolen base upside.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Steamer is the high man on the OBP totem pole for Isiah Kiner-Falefa as well, while I’m more in line with the rest of the systems. I am also projecting his stolen base attempt rate to more than half from 2020, as that just seems like a fluke given his history. You’ll need the steals though, as his power isn’t enough to earn value without catcher eligibility.

Would you look at that, it’s actually me this time just above the others on Wil Myers’ OBP, while Steamer is actually the lowest. It’s always strange to see that when the stolen base difference is in the opposite direction of the OBPs. It’s pretty clear what’s happening here, as Steamer is projecting a stronger stolen base attempt rate rebound than I am based on Myers’ history. His rate tumbled to just a third of previous seasons, but at age 30 now and speed that was just marginally better than the league average in 2020, I can’t forecast a bigger bounceback. Power hitters that also steal bases are always riskier to bank on stolen bases from, because they seemingly disappear one year without warning and it’s anyone’s guess if they return.