Archive for Hitters

Tommy John surgery week continues with the hitter edition. With both Riley Greene and Jasson Domínguez (Shohei Ohtani got the brace procedure) getting a Tommy John surgery, I wanted to know how their performance changed from when they were healthy, to hurt, to fixed.

Note: I’m pushing my limits on what I’d like with a sample was 26 hitters. Sometime the matched seasons doesn’t lineup thereby pushing the number even further down. I understand if someone feels the sample is too small and blows off the results.

I found the change by using a weighted change from season to season. The hitters who had the most matched plate appearance got the most weight. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I reviewed the hitters that THE BAT X was most bullish on for RBI compared to Steamer. Let’s now flip over to Steamer’s RBI favorites.

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Today, we transition our 2023 projection showdown review to runs batted in. This is a fun one to look at because lineup spot (and obviously the strength of the hitters ahead of the player in question) dramatically influences RBI projections. So I’m always curious how a system forecasts a player’s lineup spot and whether that forecasted spot changes as we head into opening day. A system can’t always assume a hitter will hit in the same spot as the previous year, so there has to be some sort of awareness of where the hitter is hitting during spring training and adjustments made if necessary. Sometimes we see a speedy guy with a mediocre OBP flip-flop between leading off and hitting ninth and where he ultimately ends up will influence all his counting stats. As a result, it is imperative that a computer projection system knows where a hitter is expected to hit in the lineup.

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Yesterday, I reviewed THE BAT X batting average favorites, as part of my recap of the 2023 projection showdown, pitting the system against Steamer in various fantasy categories. THE BAT X was closer for five of six players in which it was most bullish on. Let’s now check in on the hitters Steamer was most optimistic on for batting average compared to THE BAT X.

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Let’s continue on reviewing the 2023 projection showdown series, pitting THE BAT X projections against the Steamer forecast in various statistical categories. Today, we’ll move on to batting average. Batting average projections are tough as they rely heavily on BABIP, which is driven a great deal by the whims of lady luck. So over a small sample of players, the system that proved closer here isn’t necessarily better at projecting batting average. So that’s the caveat. With that out of the way, let’s get to the players that THE BAT X was projecting for a significantly higher batting average than Steamer and find out which system ended up closer.

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To qualify for this totally made-up award, a player must have earned positive value by the season’s end (2023) and show the largest difference in projected value versus end-of-season value. Simply put, I subtracted earned value from projected value, called it ‘Diff’, and sorted descending. It should be noted ahead of time that these three players were negatively valued due to very low plate appearance projections.

2022 Finalists: Jon Berti, Brendan Donovan, Brandon Drury

2023 Finalists: Josh Lowe, Jake Burger, Nolan Jones

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Yesterday, I reviewed the five hitters THE BAT X was most bullish on for stolen bases compared to Steamer projections. Now let’s flip over to Steamer’s favorites. As a reminder, this exercise isn’t as enlightening as the exercises in the various other categories I hosted a showdown for. That’s because leaguewide stolen bases were up 41% compared to the 2022 season, so the typical stolen base forecast is going to be lower than the actual total. Let’s see if that means that Steamer forecasts proved closer here more often, just as THE BAT X took four of five wins yesterday.

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Let’s continue reviewing the results of the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT X projections against Steamer forecasts. Today we move on to stolen bases. The various rule changes implemented for this season helped increase leaguewide stolen bases by a whopping 41%. So, whichever system was more bullish on any particular player’s stolen bases is far more likely to have been proven closer as a result. Let’s see if that’s the case here. We start with THE BAT X’s stolen base favorites. Did their projections for these players prove closer in a clean sweep and will Steamer show the same results tomorrow? Let’s find out!

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Last week, I began reviewing my 2023 Projection Showdown series, which pitted THE BAT X against Steamer in various hitting categories. I started by reviewing home run forecasts that THE BAT X was most bullish on compared to Steamer. Let’s now review the hitters that Steamer was most bullish on compared to THE BAT X in home runs over a 600 at-bat constant projection.

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Now that the regular season has ended, it’s recap time! Over the next couple of weeks (months?), I’ll be reviewing all my preseason articles. I want to always be held accountable for the advice I provide, but also it’s fun to find out what actually happened and if I was right. We’ll start with the first in my new series this year, the 2023 Projection Showdown, which pitted THE BAT X against Steamer in various hitting categories. We begin with the first category of home runs. In part 1, I identified the hitters who THE BAT X projected for a higher 600 at-bat home run pace than Steamer. Let’s find out which projection system proved closer.

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