2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer RBI Forecasts, Part 2

Last Thursday, I listed and discussed the hitters who THE BAT X was more optimistic on for RBI than Steamer. Now let’s switch over to the batters Steamer is more bullish on for RBI than THE BAT X.

Vinnie Pasquantino was also one of Steamer’s home run favorites, so it’s pretty clear what’s driving the discrepancy here. Steamer’s .198 ISO projection is far higher than THE BAT X’s .162 mark, which is lowest among all forecasting systems. That’s quite pessimistic, and only really makes sense if you’re overweighting his pedestrian .155 mark during his half season debut in 2022. We project Pasquantino to serve as the Royals cleanup hitter, and although the projected OBP marks of the hitters expected to slot ahead of him are underwhelming, it would still be difficult for Pasquantino to finish with the low RBI total THE BAT X is forecasting over that many PAs, even if his power was disappointing. I’m a pretty big Pasquantino fan, so I think Steamer will prove closer here.

Jake McCarthy enjoyed quite the half season fantasy splash last year, showing a bit of pop, and also stealing 23 bases. Steamer is more optimistic about McCarthy’s power than THE BAT X is, with the latter system projecting the lowest ISO marks among all forecasts. We expect McCarthy to slot in as the Diamondbacks number three hitter, though I’m guessing there will be a lot of shuffling going on given the lackluster lineup. Hitting third, or anywhere in the middle of the order, all season over 650 PAs simply cannot possibly result in just 59 RBI, unless there’s like zero power associated with the performance. There isn’t here, so I find it hard to believe he would finish on a pace lower than 70 RBI, which means I’m siding with Steamer here.

Eloy Jiménez is a surprising name to find on this list. The former top prospect simply can’t fend off the injury bug and is coming off a half season’s worth of PAs. Here yet again, Steamer’s ISO marks matches the majority of the other systems, while THE BAT X is significantly lower. More power expected from Steamer will obviously result in more RBI. We have Jiménez slotted at cleanup in the White Sox lineup, behind a trio of mediocre OBPs, but all with good to real good speed and without a massive amount of power. That should leave plenty of hitters on base for Jiménez to knock. Only 85 RBI batting cleanup with the power Jiménez possesses seems quite low over 650 PAs, so I’ll continue to side with Steamer here. The biggest question mark is if he’ll ever make it through a full season! He might end up yielding a profit for his owners if he ever does, but since he doesn’t steal any bases, his perceived fantasy value, and draft day cost, typically exceeded his actual worth based on projections.

Wow, Jose Siri is an interesting name to find here. Acquired by the Rays at the trade deadline, we’re projecting him to hit ninth in the lineup, which is obviously a weak spot to accumulate RBI. In fact, it would seem near impossible to pace for 80 RBI from down there unless the lineup was strong throughout and the hitter possessed lots of power. Neither apply here, so on first glance, it would seem THE BAT X would be a closer forecast. Some of what’s driving this difference is the two systems’ disagreement on Siri’s strikeout rate, with Steamer by far the most optimistic, and THE BAT X on par with ZiPS as the lead optimistic. Steamer is also far more bullish on his ISO than THE BAT X, as it is far and away the highest mark among systems. Tropicana Field is one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball and suppresses all hit types, so I think Steamer’s forecast will prove too optimistic. I do think THE BAT X is too pessimistic, but expect Siri to finish closer to that system than Steamer.

Again here with Nolan Arenado, we’re finding Steamer far more bullish on his ISO than THE BAT X. Actually, he’s a fascinating example of the difference between THE BAT X and THE BAT, as the lowest ISO forecast is from THE BAT X, while the highest is from THE BAT! Arenado massively outperformed his xSLG last year, and did so in 2021 as well, so it’s likely that the data THE BAT X incorporates suggest Arenado’s power is actually worse than his results would have you believe. It therefore projects declines, and a massive one at that. That said, all systems are projecting an ISO decline, which I agree with, but sitting in the cleanup spot behind a decent trio of OBP and even a solid source projected to hit ninth makes it a strong RBI slot. I can’t see Arenado finishing as low as THE BAT X projects on a 650 PA pace. While I think Steamer might end up being too bullish, I think a low-to-mid 90 forecast sounds better, and is closer to Steamer’s projection.

It’s possible that Seiya Suzuki, in his first year in the Majors after a career in Japan, was a bit of a disappointment offensively, posting just a .334 wOBA and .171 ISO. There was some good stuff splashed in though, from a single digit SwStk%, to a healthy walk rate and maxEV, along with a willingness to steal bases. Suzuki is yet another on this list expected to hit cleanup, though the OBP marks are projected to be a bit worse than what Arenado has ahead of him. The discrepancy here stems from his strikeout rate, as Steamer is most bullish as the only system below 22%, which represents a significant improvement from his 24.7% debut mark. Steamer is also projecting a higher ISO mark, though not the highest, while THE BAT X is lowest among all systems. I would think given his age and first season, THE BAT X’s ISO forecast looks too low.

I’ve noted several times the correlation between lineup spot and RBI total, I think THE BAT X’s 75 RBI forecast would be difficult to achieve batting fourth all season. Only a disappointing offensive performance, which would likely drop him in the lineup, would push his RBI total down that low. However, he did record just 46 RBI last year, for a 67 RBI pace over 650 PA, so THE BAT X is forecasting better. But that came with a third of his PAs in the two-hole, and significant time spent batting third, both spots that result in fewer RBI opportunities on average. Obviously, it’s possible he spends time in multiple spots in the batting order again, but with a better surrounding cast than last year and expected better offense, I think an RBI total closer to Steamer should be in the cards.