Hitter Auction Calculator Awards: Nobody Saw You Comin’ Award

To qualify for this totally made-up award, a player must have earned positive value by the season’s end (2022) and show the largest difference in projected value versus end-of-season value. Simply put, I subtracted earned value from projected value, called it ‘Diff’, and sorted descending. It should be noted ahead of time that these three players were negatively valued due to very low plate appearance projections.

Finalists: Jon Berti, Brendan Donovan, Brandon Drury

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Finalist #1: Jon Berti, Projected: $-27, Earned: $6

PA projection average: 183, 2022 PA: 404

In his age-32 season, Jon Berti stole 41 bases. He did it in 404 plate appearances. The next four hitters with the most stolen bases in at least 400 plate appearances (Jorge Mateo, Cedric Mullins, Tommy Edman, and Randy Arozarena) averaged 620 plate appearances. Berti swiped the most bags in the majors this season and did it in significantly fewer PA’s than his competition. He was only caught stealing five times. Unfortunately, Berti’s value was driven solely by base-stealing production. Though he finished the year with a .240 average (MLB: .243) and a .324 OBP (MLB: .312), his four home runs squashed his run production. He finished the year with only 47 runs and 28 RBI. If you go to the Auction Calculator and sort by mSB, you’ll find that Jon Berti is the first on the list, but that the next 16 players all returned more overall value. Regardless, a $33 difference in what was projected and what was earned means that if you paid $1 for Berti, you made a profit and that’s really what it’s all about, isn’t it?

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Finalist #2: Brendan Donovan, Projected: $-32, Earned: $3

PA projection average: 19, 2022 PA: 468

Check Donovan’s FanGraphs blogroll and you’ll see that he’s been written about thoroughly in the past few months. Eric Longenhagen’s July 1st ranking of Donovan placed him 7th in the organization and he really nailed this bit:

“Donovan grinds out great at-bats, he is tough to make chase and even more difficult to beat within the strike zone”

Donovan’s profile and prospect write-ups may eliminate him from the “Nobody Saw Him Comin'” qualifications, but I certainly did not see/hear anyone touting him prior to the 2022 season. Like Berti, Donovan was limited to one single category when it comes to returning a positive value, but he certainly helped fantasy managers playing in OBP leagues who rostered him. Among hitters with at least 450 PA’s in 2022, Donovan placed 7th in OBP with .394, finishing right behind Juan Soto who finished the year at .401. He did so with an excellent 12.8% BB%, well above the league average 8.2%. One more great quality of Donovan’s in 2022 was his ability to play all over the field. Here’s a count of his games played at each position from his player page:

2022 Games Played:

2B: 38    3B: 31    RF: 20    LF: 19    1B: 16    DH: 16    SS: 7

While Donovan’s year was a success from a player standpoint, it would be hard to consider him a full roto fantasy asset in 2023.

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…and the award goes to…

Finalist #3: Brandon Drury, Projected: $-31, Earned: $17

PA projection average: 56, 2022 PA: 568

Drury cooled off some between the first half (133 wRC+) and the second half (107 wRC+), but stayed above average to end the season (123 wRC+). During the trade deadline, Luke Hooper detailed Drury’s improved batted ball skills, including an increased barrel rate coupled with a career-low swinging strike rate. But realistically, Drury finally found consistent playing time. His 568 plate appearances beat his career high of 499 back in 2016 and blew his 2020 49 PA’s and 2021 88 PA’s out of the water. But Drury also tapped into some pull power in 2022, pulling 22 of his 28 home runs over the fence. Yet it would seem like an easy route to take to boil Drury’s production down to simply increased pull power. Yes, his batting average on pulled balls was .385, good for a 237 wRC+, but he also showcased above-average (SLG .457) production on opposite-field batted balls at .523, most of which came off of line drives:

Finally, like Donovan, Drury played all over the field and gave fantasy managers flexibility:

2022 Games Played:

3B: 67 1B: 30 2B: 27 DH: 26 SS: 2 RF:1

In truth, it’s hard to look at Drury’s 2022 stats and notice huge sweeping changes beyond the steady accumulation of PAs. Sometimes, players get opportunities and make the most of them.

Congratulations to Brandon Drury on an amazing season and to any fantasy managers that rostered him. Next week, I’ll take a look at the overall largest differences in projections versus earned value with the Don’t Call Me a Rabbit Award.