2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer Stolen Base Forecasts, Part 1, A Review

Yesterday, I reviewed the five hitters THE BAT X was most bullish on for stolen bases compared to Steamer projections. Now let’s flip over to Steamer’s favorites. As a reminder, this exercise isn’t as enlightening as the exercises in the various other categories I hosted a showdown for. That’s because leaguewide stolen bases were up 41% compared to the 2022 season, so the typical stolen base forecast is going to be lower than the actual total. Let’s see if that means that Steamer forecasts proved closer here more often, just as THE BAT X took four of five wins yesterday.

So not only is a review of stolen base projections not exactly informative this year given the big spike leaguewide, but there weren’t a whole lot of players that Steamer was seriously bullish on in the category compared to THE BAT X. So I only compared four player projections to begin with, and sadly, one of them failed to even steal a single base over a small sample size. Let’s dive in to this small group of players anyway.

Drew Waters only played about a half season due to injury, but he absolutely obliterated all the projections on his stolen base pace. He certainly didn’t get on base more often, as his .300 OBP was actually a bit below the forecasts, thanks to a strikeout rate over 30%, and an above average BABIP, but not quite at the level he has posted in the minors. Waters simply ran more often than expected when he did get on base. But perhaps it should have been seen coming, especially on a Royals team that ranked just 26th in baseball in home runs and 21st in ISO. Waters did steal 28 bases in 37 tries back in 2021 at Triple-A, which is only two seasons ago, and that was actually a better pace than what he did this year. I think he also has HR/FB rate upside given his strong maxEV and Barrel%, so I’m kind of excited here in OBP leagues.

After a solid 2022 debut, Vaughn Grissom opened the season at Triple-A, as the Braves handed Orlando Arcia the starting job. Grissom was ultimately recalled in mid-April, but was poor offensively, and eventually returned to the minors, at which point Arcia took back his job and ended up enjoying a solid season. Grissom ended up tallying just 80 PAs and he was caught stealing during his only attempt. He did swipe 13 bases in 15 attempts in the minors this year, though it came along with a .419 OBP, which he wouldn’t be posting at the MLB level. I think a full season would yield 10-15 steals if/when he gets another shot.

It’s always a challenge to predict how foreign players will perform in the Majors, especially in the stolen base department. Masataka Yoshida came over from Japan to make his MLB debut this year and averaged around four to five steals per 650 PAs in Japan, so he clearly wasn’t expected to be much of a basestealer. He ended up swiping eight bases in eight tries for a dazzling 100% success rate, eclipsing both projections. He even did that while disappointing with his OBP, which finished at just .338 despite the most bearish projection all the way up at .363. I would figure his walk rate improves in 2024, potentially making him undervalued in OBP leagues.

DJ LeMahieu was an odd name to make the list and his stolen base projections were almost identical to Yoshida’s. He was the only one on the list to finish closer to the more pessimistic THE BAT X, aside from Grissom. This is actually the lowest steal attempt rate he has posted in his career. Some of it is because of a .327 OBP that is his lowest since 2018, and back then, he was with the Rockies and didn’t really need to worry about stealing bases. He hasn’t swiped double digit bases since 2016, and they clearly aren’t coming back.