With just a little more than a month of the season to go, it’s easy to forget who the April heroes and zeroes were. You complained when your supposed-to-be-star stunk up the joint in April, but now that it’s the end of August and he’s doing what you expected, you are thankful you didn’t foolishly drop the player. Let’s look at some of April’s biggest disappointments that have been as good as advertised since the calendar flipped to May. These examples remind us to trust the hitter’s entire body of work, not just the last couple of weeks.

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Wilmer Difo seems to be taking the Daniel Murphy trade in stride.

He received starts at second base in the first two games of the post-Murphy era in D.C., and he went 3 for 8 with each hit being for extra bases. (He also started for a third straight day on Thursday, though as of this writing, he is taking an 0-fer.) Difo has speed and can spray line drives, but power has not shown up as a key part of his skill set over his time in the majors. The flyball revolution is not for everyone, and Davey Martinez made sure to remind his 26-year-old infielder of that.
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It’s been a few weeks since I’ve dived into hitting prospects. I’m ready for a beating in the comments. Besides the overall list, I’m going to dive into a few sluggers who are showing some promise.

These projections are based off the player’s production (wRC+ which has stadium and league adjustments), their age for level, and a small amount of regression. I used to incorporate a position adjustment but FanGraphs source data changed and I haven’t coded in a solution.

Are

• A supplement to Eric’s and Kiley’s prospect rankings. This set utilizes stats, the hitter’s age compared to the level’s average age, and some regression to find potential overlooked prospects before they start showing up on major prospect lists.

Aren’t

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I feel like there hasn’t been nearly enough fanfare that we’re witnessing not just one amazing rookie campaign, but two in the National League East. Ronald Acuna was perhaps the most anticipated prospect to make his debut this season, while Juan Soto was decidedly less so. Although clearly a strong prospect, I admittedly never even heard of the guy. Maybe because each of them opened the season in the minors and have accrued just over 300 plate appearances, which is essentially half a season, you might not realize how incredible they have performed offensively. Their owners are certainly smiling ear to ear, but the more important question is which we should prefer to own next year. Obviously, we still have over a month of the season left and things could change. But let’s take an early stab at answering the question.

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Braves

• This lineup is scary consistent.

Brewers

• Travis Shaw is sitting against lefties with Hernan Perez slotting in. This season, Shaw is posting a .565 OPS against lefties and .890 against righties.
• Jonathan Schoop has really struggled (.163/.180/.204) since being traded to the Brewers. While he started regularly right after the trade, Orlando Arcia is cutting into his playing time.
• One outfield slot switches between Eric Thames and Ryan Braun with Thames always sitting against lefties.

Cardinals

• Since getting rid of Matheny, the lineup has been stable expect Tyler O’Neill has played right field since Jose Martinez is dealing with hip soreness.
• Second base isn’t set with Kolten Wong and Greg Garcia splitting time with Yairo Munoz on the DL.

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Angels

• The lineup is in flux with Mike Trout out, Ohtani DH-ing half the time, and Taylor Ward getting promoted.
• Since the All-Star break, David Fletcher has started every game and recently has either hit second or fifth. He has no power or speed but he’s a nice everyday accumulator.

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Steals have become more and more rare these days. The upshot of that is you don’t need as many on your fantasy team to compete, but you still need some! This year isn’t that much different than last as far as SBs, but the top end is down a bit. This time last year, we had three guys with at least 35 SBs (Billy Hamilton 53, Dee Gordon 43, and Trea Turner 35) and this year Turner leads at 32. Last year there were 15 guys with 20+ and 57 at 10+. This year, we have 15 and 52, respectively.

Here are eight superfast guys who could give you a steals boost down the stretch:

Adam Engel OF, Chicago White Sox

Engel’s 30.0 ft/second sprint speed is tied for the third highest in the league behind only Byron Buxton (30.5) and Billy Hamilton (30.1). His stunning defense is earning him some extra playing time with starts in six of the last seven games. While the bat isn’t great (64 wRC+), he has still managed 12 SBs in 330 PA.

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Rougned Odor hasn’t been the only veteran hitter who has turned around his season in a hurry recently. After getting off to an absolutely, incomprehensibly brutal start, Kole Calhoun has been on fire over the last month. Conveniently, Calhoun missed about two and a half weeks in early June due to an oblique strain, so let’s split his season into his pre- and post-injury periods.

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This past weekend, I attended the always incredible SaberSeminar in Boston. It was great time catching up with friends (Dave Cameron sighting) but also to take in some innovative ideas. I decided to share some fantasy applicable topics which were discussed.

Pitch Tunneling

Experimentally determining the “Commit Point” – Evaluating the time it takes a hitter to check his swing by William Clark and Joe Petrich

Pitch Tunneling, Pitch Calling and Expected Outcome: A Former Pitcher’s Perspective by Dan Blewett

Pitching tunneling was brought up several times by several speakers but these two came to the same conclusion. The reaction time for a batter to determine the pitch type may be less than previously calculated. It was thought that a hitter had around 225 ms to 275 ms to decide to swing. It’s possible that the time may be under 200 ms and the batter may be keying off the release point.

Also, if a pitcher is struggling, it might be worth looking over at his release point charts (example with Jon Gray). Make sure all the pitches are clustered together and haven’t been recent moving around.
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You know why we harp so much on trusting the projections? Every single season, there are a slew of hitters who start off sizzling or excruciatingly slow, and because of recency bias, we tend to think this is going to be the new norm for these players. Sure, this ends up being the case for some of them, but for the vast majority, eventually they do perform just as we expected. This is perfectly illustrated by Rougned Odor.

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