Stats Based Prospect Rankings

It’s been a few weeks since I’ve dived into hitting prospects. I’m ready for a beating in the comments. Besides the overall list, I’m going to dive into a few sluggers who are showing some promise.

These projections are based off the player’s production (wRC+ which has stadium and league adjustments), their age for level, and a small amount of regression. I used to incorporate a position adjustment but FanGraphs source data changed and I haven’t coded in a solution.

Are

• A supplement to Eric’s and Kiley’s prospect rankings. This set utilizes stats, the hitter’s age compared to the level’s average age, and some regression to find potential overlooked prospects before they start showing up on major prospect lists.

Aren’t

• A complete list of every prospect. Some will be missed. I don’t care as I’m digging for one-offs. The most likely reason for not being on the list is they haven’t performed, not played much (major factor), or have graduated to the majors. Major league results are also not included.

• The order doesn’t matter at all, at least to me. Why one person is #8 over some guy at #14 compared to other lists is irrelevant. A single series of games may jump a player up or down the list. The top prospects are already owned in most dynasty leagues. I feel the order only matters to desperate fan bases looking for some much-needed hope.

A.J. Reed (Astros)

The 25-year-old Reed would not be ranked if I was still able to incorporate position He’s stuck as a 1B/DH so has no defensive value to fall back on. He’s all bat. And by all bat, I mean all power. He has never posted a minor-league ISO under .200 while hitting 25 homers this season and 34 last year.

He’s been called up each of the past three seasons and has only hit .153/.253/.244 while in the bigs. The Astros may be fixated on his .227/.308/.420 projection which is similar to Adam Duvall’s projection (.229/.291/.427). I wonder if a change of scenery, a full-time major league job, and the juiced ball could help un-tap some production.

Elehuris Montero (Cardinals)

An unknown to me until I dived in. He’s on the deep prospect radars as Eric Logenhagen wrote the following on him this spring (40-grade future value):

While he’s quite thick for a 19-year-old, Montero’s above-average arm strength gives him a fair chance to stay at third base. If he can, he could be an everyday player: he has above-average raw power projection and some feel to hit. He slashed .277/.370/.468 in the GCL. The risk that he tumbles down the defensive spectrum kept him off the main section of the list.

MLB.com likes him a little more (50-grade power).

Montero’s potential lies in what he can do with the bat from the right side of the plate. He has a compact stroke that allows him to make consistent contact and translates to outstanding raw power he is still learning to tap into on a regular basis. He has a solid approach at the plate and isn’t afraid to draw walks. His best defensive tool is his arm and the Cardinals think he has the hands and actions to stay at third long-term.

Others think he might outgrow the hot corner and a lack of speed does limit his range to an extent. The good news is that if his bat continues to progress, he might profile well at either infield corner when all is said and done.

The 19-year-old has taken a major step forward and hit .321/.381/.529 in A-Ball. It seems like he is starting to turn some of his raw tools into production.

He’s getting to the point where he’s no longer hidden and his bat may sneak its way onto some top-100 lists this offseason.

Nathaniel Lowe (Rays)

Power, big raw power. He’s quickly climbed from High-A to Triple-A this season with a selection to the Future’s Game.

The climb has come from being more selective at the plate as MLB.com states:

Lowe’s success in his second full season is a testament to his aptitude and development at the plate. After profiling as more of a hit-over-power guy early in his career, the hulking left-handed hitter has learned how to tap into his plus-plus raw power and turn on the ball with consistency without it detracting from his impressive feel to hit and overall strong approach. He continues to make a lot of hard, line-drive contact and uses the entire field well, all while demonstrating a discerning eye at the plate that fuels his on-base skills.

Here’s Eric’s recent take on the 22-year-old:

A-ball and below is full of big-bodied mashers with offensive holes that haven’t been exposed yet. Lowe was recently promoted to Double-A and starting to stress-test our current evaluation. He has huge raw power and has shown an ability to stay back on breaking balls and drive them with power to the opposite field with his strength. If he keeps hitting like this in Montgomery for the rest of the summer, he could be one of the more drastic movers in a loaded Rays system.

With Lowe’s defensive limitations, Jake Bauers may be moved to the outfield as the Rays like to keep some flexibility with the DH spot.