This week’s edition represents a reiteration of two previous recommendations. It baffles me both are owned in less than 10% of CBS leagues.

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Angels

• It hasn’t changed much once Shohei Ohtani became the designated hitter.
• There is a first base platoon with Jose Fernandez facing righties and Jefry Marte against lefties.

Astros

• It’s set with the exception of Marwin Gonzalez playing more since he’s heated up (.268/.316/.563 over the last 28 days).

Athletics

• Ramon Laureano is now batting leadoff. He’s a must-own in all leagues at this point.
• Mark Canha doesn’t face right-handed pitchers. When he starts against lefties, Matt Olson (1B) or Chad Pinder (LF) head to the bench.

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Yesterday, I highlighted five lesser owned hitters who have running wild over the last two weeks. Today, I’ll discuss four hitters who have posted absurd HR/FB rates over the last 14 days. These players are all widely available and could knock another couple out, which may be the difference between a point or two in the homer category, and perhaps RBI.

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At a stolen base attempt every 54.8 plate appearances, hitters are trying for a swipe at the lowest frequency this century. That means it’s more difficult than ever to find steals on free agency to gain points in the category. Luckily, there are a handful of hitters who have attempted a bunch of steals over the last two weeks and aren’t owned in the majority of CBS leagues. Let’s discuss them.

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It’s been a banner year for rookie players in 2018. This season we’ve seen the graduation of the minor leagues best all-around prospect (after the obligatory service time manipulation), a two-way phenom contribute on the mound and in the batter’s box, a 19-year-old that began the year in A-ball, and the Yankees continue to profit from their embarrassment of riches.

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I use xwOBA as a leading indicator of good or bad things to come mid-season, for better or for worse. It’d be good to know if such reliance is truly warranted. I further talked myself into the idea when I wrote about several underperforming hitters in early June. Many of the names therein went on some serious heaters afterward, too. It wasn’t as prescient as it was playing the odds: the hitters underperforming xwOBA most extremely through two months always, always (in the Statcast Era^TM) bounce back to some degree.

It’s “predictive,” but not universally so, and only by virtue of common sense, in the same way a pitcher who allows a sub-.200 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) through two months could not reasonably sustain this high level of contact management. (There’s a discussion to be had here about the gambler’s fallacy, but I don’t think it necessarily applies to baseball. For another day.)

In terms of prior work, it’s all Baseball Prospectus‘ Jonathan Judge (only a slight exaggeration): he compared xwOBA to BP’s DRA metric as well as FIP (fielding independent pitching), a much simpler ERA estimator, and showed xwOBA is hardly superior to the field, at least for pitching. However, the article only covered year-to-year, not in-season, correlations.

After our dear and departed (but not dead) Eno Sarris asked Judge if he had looked at in-season correlations specifically, and after our dear and departed (and also not dead) Mike Petriello reinforced the notion that xwOBA could serve as an in-season predictor of regression under certain circumstances, I figured it’s high time I just tackle the question.

So: How predictive is xwOBA of wOBA in-season? For hitters and for pitchers?

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The theme of this week’s deep league wire is POWER. Lots and lots of power. And unfortunately, perhaps nothing else. Most of you could use a couple of extra homers, right?

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I think there are not one, but many, questions because there are not one, but many, ways Adalberto Mondesi and Byron Buxton are similar.

Here’s one answer to one possible question:

who has the best fantasy season in 2019?

— Alex "Oxlade" Chamberlain (@DolphHauldhagen) August 29, 2018

I can’t say I’m surprised, but I’m kind of surprised. I asked this question very deliberately, its design not remotely accidental, the response options dripping with subtext. Mondesi, with his elite speed, decent power for a speedster, and very questionable contact skills, in 2018 is almost a dead ringer for Buxton in 2017. Mondesi doesn’t quite have Buxton’s baggage — he doesn’t carry the weight of expectations of a No. 1 prospect — but he has his own, continuing a familial legacy. But they do have a lot in common, as aforementioned, which can be summarily boiled down to this great quip from our Eric Longenhagen: “wholly untamed physical abilities.”

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Looking over the last 30 days, I toured the diamond for a standout at every position who could be available and continue to produce over the final month of the season.

C: Omar Narvaez, CWS | 148 wRC+, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 12 R, 0 SB in 73 PA

The 26-year old backstop was supposed to be a backup, but then Welington Castillo was suspended 80 games for PEDs. Narvaez has made the most of his opportunity with a 127 wRC+ for the season. He’s more than just the last month of time, too, as he’s hitting .349/.433/.544 in 172 PA since June 1st after a paltry .169/.273/.234 line through May. Castillo’s suspension is done, but now he’s on the DL with shoulder inflammation. Narvaez is a solid C2 even when Castillo returns.

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In just a couple of days, rosters will expand, new faces will be recalled, and you’ll have a slew of choices for your deep league teams. But until that time, you’re still stuck with the same group of mehs. Here are two recommendations.

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