Last week, I compared CBS’ projected rankings versus their actual rankings to determine which starting pitchers have disappointed the most. Today, I’ll check in on the hitters. I used the same simple math, subtracting projected ranking from actual ranking and then sorted by the difference in descending order. I excluded injured/suspended players not expected to return soon, hitters who missed a chunk of time to injury that has limited their counting stat production, and those in the minors. I limited the players to those projected inside the top 200. Basically, if they were only projected to earn a couple of bucks, is it really so disappointing if they’ve “earned” -$10 so far? Nah.

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Yesterday, I examined hitters who owners missed on preseason and what could be done to prevent such mistakes in the future. Today, the underachievers go under the microscope. In my previous article, I used Paul Sporer’s “All First Half” articles for reference. With no underachieving articles out yet, I will look for players with differences in ADP and current rank using our auction calculator.

Extended Injury Stays

Daniel Murphy

I lamented last offseason about missing out on J.D. Martinez’s great 2017 season. I didn’t want to miss out again and was willing to take a chance on Daniel Murphy’s discount.

When I created his projection, I account for six weeks off but it was on the short side. Additionally, once he returned, he wasn’t productive for a few weeks but has a .859 OPS in July.

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We are all learning, modifying, or destroying ideas all the time. Rapid destruction of your ideas when the time is right is one of the most valuable qualities you can acquire. -Charlie Munger

It’s time to see if I need to adjust my fantasy baseball beliefs by analyzing the first half busts and breakout lists. While it’s great to acknowledge these players, owners need to sit down and figure out why everyone missed on them. By hitting on one or two of these breakouts, a team could be competing for the top spot. Here are the groups and how to identify the breakout next preseason.

For the player situations I analyzed, I’m used Paul Sporer’s First Half All Value Stars and Fantasy Team for inspiration. I looked for actionable traits or tells which can be used next season.

Unknown Playing Time

Jesus Aguilar

Everyone understood coming into this season that the Brewers playing time situation was going to be a mess, so not owning Aguilar is understandable. He was to be in a platoon with Domingo Santana with middling projections. The deal with Aguilar, he really didn’t have a horrible platton split. It was .372 wOBA vs .338 wOBA in 2017. It’s .444 vs .405 this season.

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The All-Star game has come and gone, but the festivities are ongoing here at RotoGraphs. It’s time to rank the first half’s “All-Sell-High Team.” These are players who had big first halves, but who aren’t necessarily the best bets to repeat that performance in the second half. Without further ado, let’s get right to the list: Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I discussed the nine hitters whose Auto Out% (AO%) had improved most versus 2017. As a reminder, AO% is simply the sum of strikeouts and infield fly balls (aka, popups) divided by plate appearances. Let’s take a look at the hitters whose AO% has risen most dramatically versus last season.

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Last week, I introduced Auto Out% (AO%), which is just strikeouts and infield fly balls (IFFB) as a percentage of plate appearances. I began by discussing the starting pitchers who have increased their AO% most since 2017. Let’s now turn our attention to the hitters. Using the same formula, these are the nine hitters who have most improved their AO%.

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It’s time for the bi-weekly look at under-the-radar hitting prospects. There seemed to be some confusion on the point of the rankings which is to find under promote good prospects. Today, I will try to clear up the and dive into a few hitters not represented on top-100 prospect lists.

The last time I ran this report, there was some questions on why some hitters were missing. After investing, I found out it’s was a database issue which missed some newly signed players, changed the position labeling, and mislabeled when players lost their rookie eligibility. I’ve made sure everyone is included but added a few adjustments.

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Contrary to popular belief, the secret to rebuilding (and winning) your fantasy league is not hoarding prospects. This season, you could be waiting patiently for the arrivals of Michael Kopech, Willie Calhoun, and Luis Urias to save your team, or you could have jumped on pop-up producers like Max Muncy, Jesus Aguilar, and Ross Stripling. Last year, Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, and Charlie Morton were universally available if your timing was right.

The thing about prospects is that sometimes they pan out, and sometimes they don’t. Even a “successful” one like Ronald Acuña has just a 114 wRC+, with a rest-of-season projection slightly below that. In real life, that’s fantastic for a 20-year-old and Acuña is a likely future star. But in the meantime his production is nothing special.

And again: Acuña is a success story. Owners might wait years for the likes of Byron Buxton, Dansby Swanson, and Alex Reyes to carry their teams to relevancy. All the while, players like the following four who are owned in less than 40 percent (well, actually, 43 percent) of Ottoneu leagues have been quietly carrying contenders: Read the rest of this entry »

Since I’m not in enough fantasy league to own every Major League hitter, I am frequently surprised when I see season home run totals. Even for the guys I own, I am not necessarily aware of how many home runs they currently have. One example is Shin-Soo Choo, who I actually own in two leagues, but didn’t even realize he was already up to 17 homers, just five fewer than his career high. He’s not included in this post, however, because I want to dive into the real surprises that essentially no one saw coming. So let’s discuss seven hitters with at least 15 home runs that no one predicted.

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A quick at some available bats at each position for the upcoming week. Check out Nick’s piece on available pitchers, too. I’m using the FantasyPros roster rates of 50% or lower as the threshold and including a 25% or lower option at each position, too.

With a handful of doubleheaders this week, there are several teams with 8 games: BAL, MIL, NYM, NYY, PHI, and PIT.

CATCHER

Tucker Barnhart | CIN, 30%, 6 games (all vR) – The switch-hitting Barnhart is better against lefties (.949 OPS) than righties (.645), but pickings are slim for catcher! He does have solid 17% K and 9% BB rates against righties and a .260 BABIP holding him back. If you’re just going for playing time, he’s got the third-most plate appearances at the position.

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