Man, it was no fun this year being in an AL-Only league, as the biggest name to cross over was Tommy Pham. Last year, he enjoyed a surprise breakout, posting a .398 wOBA, driven by power, speed, and BABIP skillZ. Unfortunately, things haven’t gone nearly as well for him this season, as his wOBA has plummeted to just .320, thanks to a decline in his HR/FB rate and dive in his BABIP. Having lost some playing time in St. Louis recently, he should return to being an every day player in Tampa. How might his new home park impact his performance? Let’s find out.

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The non-waiver trade deadline is almost upon us! So far, it’s been relatively uneventful, but there was one big name that was on the move — the Moose himself, Mike Moustakas. The Brewers traded some of their outfield depth for about two months of Moustakas to boost their chances of making the playoffs. Let’s compare the relevant park factors to to determine how much this change in home parks could impact his performance.

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Jesse Winker and Jake Bauers haven’t set the fantasy world on fire since arriving in the big leagues. Winker, who debuted in 2017, and Bauers, who debuted this season, have been solid contributors to their real life baseball teams, but their inability to hit for power has limited their fantasy value.

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Braves

• Since returning from the DL, Ronald Acuna is leading off with Ender Inciarte batting seventh.
• Charlie Culberson is batting and playing second as Ozzie Albies deals with a hamstring issue.

Brewers

• This team continues to roster too many MLB caliber corner outfielders and first basemen cutting into everyone’s playing time. The team has finally smartened up and is playing Jesus Aguilar every day. Ryan Braun, Keon Broxton, and Eric Thames are battling for the right field spot
• Tyler Saladino (.275/.330/.431) has started 12 straight games at shortstop.
• Hernan Perez has been playing a ton of second base recently so I wondered if he was on a hot streak. Nope since he’s hitting just .241/.290/.397 over past 28 days. The problem is that Brad Miller has been horrible (.203/.242/.305) over the same time frame.

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With many hittes returning from the DL after the All-Star break, I decided to examine American League lineups today and the National League ones tomorrow.

Angels

• With Albert Pujols coming back from the DL, there are four players, Shohei Ohtani, Luis Valbuena, Jefry Marte, and Pujols fighting over the first base and designated hitter spots. I expect Pujols and Ohtani, when healthy, to get the most at-bats. It’s a situation to monitor for a few days to see how the Angels will handle the situation.

Astros

• The lineup set at the top but the team has been cycling some players around to find a serviceable shortstop with Carlos Correa out and little production from left field (.243/.319/.386). Kyle Tucker was supposed to be the answer but he’s hit only .139/.205/.167 in 39 PA so far. It’s a small sample but the Astros are trying to repeat as World Series champs so don’t be surprised if they add an outfielder as insurance.

Athletics

• While the batting order has been mixed up since the All-Star game, generally the same players are being used. The only exception is that Chad Pinder (vs LHP) and Dustin Fowler (vs RHP) are in a platoon.

Blue Jays

• Randal Grichuk is playing center field everyday with Kevin Pillar on the DL.
• For owners in deeper leagues, keep an eye on Dwight Smith Jr. who has started in right field the last two games. While the 25-year-old has a little bit of speed and power, his true talent is getting on base (.373 OBP with 12% BB%). His 15% HR/FB rate looks decent but he mainly puts the ball on the ground (50% GB%).
• Lourdes Gurriel is back from the DL and playing with Devon Travis and Aledmys Diaz moving to part-time roles.

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Yesterday, I attempted to discuss the season’s biggest hitter disappointments by comparing each player’s projected CBS ranking to his current actual ranking. Unfortunately, injuries played a bigger role than I realized for several of the players, which explains a good portion of their disappointing fantasy value. Today I’ll discuss the biggest surprises and luckily injuries won’t screw up my analysis this time!

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Last week, I compared CBS’ projected rankings versus their actual rankings to determine which starting pitchers have disappointed the most. Today, I’ll check in on the hitters. I used the same simple math, subtracting projected ranking from actual ranking and then sorted by the difference in descending order. I excluded injured/suspended players not expected to return soon, hitters who missed a chunk of time to injury that has limited their counting stat production, and those in the minors. I limited the players to those projected inside the top 200. Basically, if they were only projected to earn a couple of bucks, is it really so disappointing if they’ve “earned” -$10 so far? Nah.

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Yesterday, I examined hitters who owners missed on preseason and what could be done to prevent such mistakes in the future. Today, the underachievers go under the microscope. In my previous article, I used Paul Sporer’s “All First Half” articles for reference. With no underachieving articles out yet, I will look for players with differences in ADP and current rank using our auction calculator.

Extended Injury Stays

Daniel Murphy

I lamented last offseason about missing out on J.D. Martinez’s great 2017 season. I didn’t want to miss out again and was willing to take a chance on Daniel Murphy’s discount.

When I created his projection, I account for six weeks off but it was on the short side. Additionally, once he returned, he wasn’t productive for a few weeks but has a .859 OPS in July.

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We are all learning, modifying, or destroying ideas all the time. Rapid destruction of your ideas when the time is right is one of the most valuable qualities you can acquire. -Charlie Munger

It’s time to see if I need to adjust my fantasy baseball beliefs by analyzing the first half busts and breakout lists. While it’s great to acknowledge these players, owners need to sit down and figure out why everyone missed on them. By hitting on one or two of these breakouts, a team could be competing for the top spot. Here are the groups and how to identify the breakout next preseason.

For the player situations I analyzed, I’m used Paul Sporer’s First Half All Value Stars and Fantasy Team for inspiration. I looked for actionable traits or tells which can be used next season.

Unknown Playing Time

Jesus Aguilar

Everyone understood coming into this season that the Brewers playing time situation was going to be a mess, so not owning Aguilar is understandable. He was to be in a platoon with Domingo Santana with middling projections. The deal with Aguilar, he really didn’t have a horrible platton split. It was .372 wOBA vs .338 wOBA in 2017. It’s .444 vs .405 this season.

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The All-Star game has come and gone, but the festivities are ongoing here at RotoGraphs. It’s time to rank the first half’s “All-Sell-High Team.” These are players who had big first halves, but who aren’t necessarily the best bets to repeat that performance in the second half. Without further ado, let’s get right to the list: Read the rest of this entry »