Episode 222
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris discuss news related to recent injuries, call-ups, big performers, and of course bullpen shakeups.
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Yesterday, I took the first look of the 2015 season at starting pitcher’s xK%. I began with the potential surgers, those pitchers whose expected strikeout rates were most above their actual marks. Today will be the opposite side of the coin. These pitchers have posted strikeout rates significantly above what their mix of strike percentage, swinging, called and foul strike rates suggest. They could be in for strikeout rate collapses if they don’t improve those peripherals.
• Adam Wainwright may be done for the season with an Achilles injury. More information will become available later today.
An official season-ending diagnosis could come on Monday, after Wainwright undergoes an MRI on his ankle. The scan will determine the severity of the injury and give the Cardinals a better idea of the recovery timetable to follow. Most Achilles injuries required several months of rehab.
• Yasiel Puig is headed to the DL to help make his hamstring all better. The injury has been lingering for a couple weeks and the Dodgers decided “that’s long enough”.
As we near the end of the month, our samples remain far too small to perform any serious analysis on. But, that’s really only true when we’re using plate appearances or innings pitched as our denominator. My xK% equation is based on per-pitch metrics, which stabilize much more quickly than anything based on innings. No, I don’t know the actual stabilization point, but since a pitcher has thrown more pitches than he has innings pitched, that’s what’s going to happen.
So let’s take a look at those starting pitchers whose xK% marks are most above their actual strikeout rates. These are the guys with significant upside who should enjoy a strikeout rate surge in the near future.
The buy low and sell high strategy has been a favorite one of fantasy leaguers for as long as fantasy sports has existed, I would imagine. Unfortunately, it’s nearly dead given the wealth of freely available information and the deeper knowledge we now possess about how to evaluate player performance. Nearly dead, not completely dead. To buy low or sell high on a player, you need a story, a narrative that essentially offers up confirmation bias and makes the owner you’re dealing with feel all fuzzy inside when agreeing to the trade.
Episode 221
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris discuss injury news related to Ian Kennedy, Dexter Fowler, Joe Nathan, and Shane Victorino. They also investigate the findings of Scott Spratt regarding early-season defense and then discuss 10 guys who are struggling majorly early and get a read on whether or not they’re ready to make a move in response to the slow start.
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It’s hard to believe the current incarnation of Curtis Granderson could show up, by default, at the very top of any FanGraphs leaderboard for positive reasons. Yet there he is: the Grandy Man leads all National League outfielders in chase rate (O-Swing%), at 16.7 percent. Only Brett Gardner and the fabled Joey Votto have offered at fewer non-strikes than Granderson among qualified Major League hitters.
Granderson has seen 128 pitches outside the strike zone. Of those pitches, he has swung at 21 of them. And of those swings, he has made contact with 17. For the mathematically disinclined, that’s a grand total of four swings and misses on pitches out of the zone. That’s the fewest of any hitter who has seen at least as many pitches as Granderson has.
The title of the article is an allusion to Schott’s Miscellany, which you should definitely check out if you never have and feel compelled to know that a group of larks is called an exaltation or that a member of the 32nd degree of Freemasonry is known as a Sublime Prince of the Royal Secret.
–Important Early-Season Defensive Leaders–
Defense is not a category in typical fantasy leagues, but I don’t think it’s universally safe to ignore it in making fantasy decisions. In particular, the defensive play of newly promoted major leaguers can make or break their chances at playing time, and the defensive success or struggles of all players can lead to changes in positions and therefore eligibilities. It’s early in the season, but there are several players I’ve had my eye on that have already shown a clear tendency in their defensive numbers. First, let’s take a look at the positive performers.
Chris Carter is off to a bad start. This is an unambiguously true fact. Jeff Sullivan, among other Twitterers (Tweeters?), have succinctly illuminated this unambiguously true fact:
selection of players with ISO of .000 Curtis Granderson Brandon Phillips Desmond Jennings Logan Morrison Chris Carter
— Jeff Sullivan (@based_ball) April 21, 2015
Carter has supplemented the zero extra-base hits with four singles, 21 strikeouts and nary a run batted in to speak of through 51 plate appearances. (FYI, that’s a 41.2-percent strikeout rate.) His atrociously bad start is the talk of the Twitter town, and it has Astros Manager A.J. Hinch dropping him in the batting order. As of last night, Carter’s ownership had dropped to 67.7 and 73 percent in ESPN and Yahoo! leagues, respectively, as owners have jumped ship.
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Cursing at the injury Gods already? Yeah you are. Let’s see what your free agent pool might offer in your deep league.