Two weeks. That’s it. After (another) long, chaotic offseason, and five and a half months of action, two weeks is all that is left for those looking to secure gold. This isn’t June anymore and we can’t just casually shake off a blowup start from a starting pitcher, whether stud or streamer, consoling ourselves with thoughts of there being plenty of time to balance things back out. No, no, no – this is championship season, Indy baby, and one false step can send you plummeting out of contention like a grail-hunting nazi stepping on the wrong tile.

If you want to stack fantasy chips, you better stack your advantages as high as possible. Baseball is still going to occasionally baseball but all we can do is set ourselves up for success as much as we can.

Let’s get some trophies. Read the rest of this entry »

As we’re in the final (final) stretch of the fantasy baseball season, the magnifying glass needed for every pitching start chosen needs to be that much larger. To continue our recent theme of looking at the ways to make wiser choices in these regards, I’d only intended on adding a little context about the offensive environments according to stadium park factors. But as often is the case, down the rabbit hole I tumbled. And as we’ll see shortly, one cannot simply look at park factors from a single angle, as multiple agents of chaos must be accounted for. Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve officially entered championship month and whether you’re in head-to-head playoffs or accumulating your way to the money in roto, our starting choices deserve a larger microscope. Choosing who to start and sit, whether stud or streamer, can have profound implications, with razor-thin margins in a category or two, often separating the ultimate winners and losers. And given the desire to manipulate particular categories, it’s not as simple as needing “good” starts because you might be in a situation where any start that ends with a win (or a strikeout per IP, zeroed ratios, etc) is good, and any start that doesn’t is bad, regardless of the other results. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s getting even later in the fantasy season and endgame strategies are starting to come into play. While it is possible to guide your offense toward specific categories, a greater impact can be made with how you direct your pitching, depending on which categories you are looking to massage, and so that’s where we’ll continue to focus.

Round 2…Fight! Read the rest of this entry »

It’s getting late in the fantasy season and endgame strategies are starting to come into play. While it is possible to guide your offense toward specific categories, a greater impact can be made with how you direct your pitching, depending on which categories you are looking to massage, and so that’s where we’ll continue to focus. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week we got a little more granular in evaluating our pitching matchups, focusing on how teams have fared against left-handed pitchers, both in terms of overall offense, as well as against individual pitch types. So, in the name of symmetry, let’s move on to right-handers this week, trying to identify weaknesses for matchups this weekend and in Week 19 of fantasy.

No time to waste, let’s go. Read the rest of this entry »

With the trade deadline behind us and only the dog days of August/September standing in the way of fantasy championships, let’s start taking a more targeted approach to our pitching matchups, with each one we choose, whether stud or streamer, carrying even more weight as the season winds down.

We’ll do this by first looking at how each team has fared by the handedness of the pitcher faced, starting with those wily left-handers and ranking teams in wOBA, xwOBA, wOBA/xwOBA (on contact), SwStr%, Whiff%, and BB%. Baseball can always baseball at any given time but looking at these ranks gives us a good starting point for how teams have generally succeeded (or failed) against certain hands, both in overall damage and whiffs. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s Friday and I’m back from vacation, so let’s talk about bacon. Well, wOBAcon, anyways, or, weighted on-base average on contact, if you’re not into the whole brevity thing. Simply put, it’s how much damage a batter does when actually making contact. Easy-greasy. Read the rest of this entry »

They’re still an under-.500 team but the Miami Marlins are chock full of fantasy-relevant arms worth discussing. Sandy Alcantara has been a fantasy ace in 2022 and Pablo Lopez is knocking on the d0or (and actually staying healthy). Trevor Rogers is still far from expectations but has at least started being good enough to stop the mass cuttings, and Edward Cabrera is a hot prospect who showed flashes of excellence before hitting the IL.

Lots of exciting guys, with names you know (and roster). Obviously, we should talk about Braxton Garrett, a backend lefty who is less than 5% rostered on Yahoo, ESPN, and CBS, right? What can I say? I’m a sucker for change, particularly when it’s purposeful. Read the rest of this entry »

After a rough stretch, Lucas Giolito is coming off of two great starts and is set for a matchup on Friday night with a Tigers team that has mostly been an offensive doormat for much of 2022. And since the mission statement here at NotBurt Inc. includes many mentions of setting ourselves up for success, clearly, now is the perfect time to question his performance going forward. Because where’s the fun without an added degree of difficulty? Read the rest of this entry »