It’s Never Too Early For (More) 2023 Sleepers

Welcome back, fearless readers! With another week of cold and dark, fantasy-less days behind us, let’s look at a few more players who might just fulfill the exact criteria of what a sleeper truly is. Because if we’re not planting early flags, what are we even doing?

Last time out we looked at a couple of sleepy fellas for 2023, so if you want to check them out or go over our value criteria, please feel free to do so here. But considering that my two young children have equaled me going to no less than five Halloween events over the next four days, we should really go ahead and get down to business.

Before we jump to one of the current favorites to win the 2023 NotBurt Most-Rostered Player of the Year*, let’s start off by feeling a little special. As in, properly picking a categorical specialist in the back half of drafts for maximum benefit. You know, the hitters who have just one (plus a half or two) tricks in the bag – but it’s a doozy of a trick?

*not a real award

Whether home run hitters living near Mendoza or guys that will give you just stolen bases or batting average (but nothing else), those of the one-nth dimension can be very useful, especially given their prices. But whether or not this type ascends to true sleeperhood can only be seen in hindsight, and will depend on the rest of your team’s performance, as much as it does their own ROI.

Take batting average, for example. Judging by just ROI, Andrew Benintendi could’ve been called a realized sleeper last year, as he was being drafted post-200 but finished as a top-70 hitter. But with a line of 5 HR – 54 R – 51 RBI – 8 SB – .304 AVG, was he really? Well, seeing that a great majority of his value was tied to his batting average, I’d say that probably depends on the rest of your team.

If you draft an AVG-only (or HR, SB, etc.) guy late and end up running away with the category, it was probably a bad pick. Bad, because you didn’t have a great sense of your team’s makeup and were likely already overweight in the category when you made the pick. Hence, buying a luxury good you don’t really need at the expense of needed staples elsewhere.

But that sort of hindsight shenanigans can be held for another time, and can mostly be mitigated by tracking your team categories as you draft. When you know where you’re at (or, know as least as much as anyone can before a season starts), you know what you need.

If you should draft a one-trick pony (henceforth known as an OTP), though, is a different story than which OTP you should ride with. Keeping with the categorical theme, let’s take a look at who you should be targeting later in drafts if your team structure is in need of a batting average bulwark.

First, let’s find our candidates, using a 200 ADP (from the few drafts that have happened so far) as our arbitrary cut-off. Here are the top-five value returners by xAVG, which converts batting average into a counting stat in order to account for the number of at-bats. Or, the reason a .296 AVG over 558 PA is more valuable than a .300 AVG over 435 PA.

I suppose one could make arguments for the bottom three but for those searching for a discounted bundle of hits, I think there are only two real choices – and we’re playing by Highlander rules. So, whom should it be? The Splendid Twins-ter in Minnesota, or the guy who batted .250 but a year ago? Using a totally official rubric of deductive challenges, let’s pick a winner.

Challenge: Trick as Advertised

Or, am I going to get what I paid for? This is the most important question you have to answer before picking an OTP. Because if you come in with your eyes wide open, you’ll never be disappointed if your chosen trickster fails in the categories you expected him to, but when they can’t even manage the one thing you were promised? Different story.

You can’t get mad when a batting average sink like Joey Gallo does what batting average sinks do. This thing is known! So, if you drafted my guy pico, you should’ve at least been planning for it (seriously, though – .160???). But even if you planned for that outcome, those plans are contingent on him doing the one damn thing he’s supposed to. IE moonshot city.

Luckily, I’m not too concerned about false advertising from Arraez and McNeil, even given the aforementioned .251 AVG from the latter in 2021 . McNeil has a .307 AVG for his five-year career and the lowest outside of 2021’s aberration was a .311 AVG in 2020. But as slick as a stick that he carries, Arraez just seems like he was created in a lab to be a .300 hitter. The 25-year-old has a .314 AVG over his first nearly 1600 PA in the big leagues, with a low of .294 in 2021 and a high of .334 in his rookie year from 2019. Dude rakes.

Advantage: Virtual tie

I’m an Arraez guy, through and through, but he and McNeil are both as likely to deliver their goods as any other player in baseball is likely to deliver theirs. And this makes both two of the most solid OTP guys available.

Challenge: Gravy Taker

Gravy is good but alas there is always a flip side. All one-trick ponies come with categorical warts – that’s why they’re available so late, ya dig? The question is one of size; warts can be dealt with but are they so big as to dramatically decrease the quality of one’s trick?

The holes are obvious (and similar) for Arraez and McNeil. Power and speed, we hardly knew ya. Arraez had 8 HR and 4 SB in 603 PA in 2022, both career highs. McNeil did hit 23 HR in 567 PA once but that was in the year of our happyfunball, two-thousand and nineteen, so I’m not sure we should put too much stock in it. Especially since he’s only hit a total of 20 HR in the 1224 PA since. And the seven stolen bases that came with them, make me think that ~5 SB seems to be around the likely cap.

Advantage: Tie

If you get 15 HR+SB from either guy, you should be over the moon. You know what you’re signing up for here.

Challenge: Gravy Maker

You should know what you’re getting (and not) from an OTP but just about anything will get better with a little gravy. But do Arraez and McNeil even have anything in the pot? Certainly not with regards to power and speed but what about the rest (runs, RBI, and PA – which acts as a de facto value boost to AVG)?

These three categories all have one thing in common, as they’re all as dependent on things more outside of a hitter’s control (batting order, surrounding cast performance), as they are on their own actual performance. I don’t care how good of a hitter you are – someone batting first is going to collect more PA than the seventh hitter, and players up in the lineup are going to be in better positions to score and drive in runs, than those batting lower.

PA sub challenge: Arraez batted in the top third of Minnesota’s offense virtually all season and pretty much took over the leadoff spot from June on. McNeil hasn’t really been an everyday leadoff hitter since his magical (definitely not aided by the baseball) 2019 season. Perhaps he takes it back over after his 2022 bounceback but I remain skeptical.

Advantage: Arraez

RBI sub challenge: Arraez has never been an even average producer of RBI and that’s not going to change if he continues batting leadoff (and Minnesota continues rolling out an underwhelming lineup). McNeil, while not a big producer of RBI, has at least almost always returned per-PA rates that put him nearer the middle of the pack.

Advantage: McNeil

Runs sub challenge: Like with RBI, McNeil has never been a big producer of runs but his per-PA rates have mostly kept his totals non-embarrassing. But do you know who finished with 88 Runs in 2022 (t-29th) and has a per-PA run-scoring rate that was in the 92nd percentile? That’s right – Luis Arraez. I don’t care if you’re a moon-raker or slap-hitter; if you bat .300 and hit leadoff, you’re going to end up with a lot of runs. Facts. So much facts, in fact, that I’m borderline considering making an upgrade to Arraez’s one-trick status.

Two! Two trick pony! Ah-Ah-Ahhhh!

Advantage: Arraez

Final Judgement

Luis Arraez! Okay, maybe I’m biased because he litters my teams every season but I’m just a sucker for hitters that pitchers simply can’t get out. They’re just great. And Arraez is just a warm, fuzzy, batting average blanket that you can wrap around the category and feel good about staying warm all season. Can’t be gotten out, bats leadoff, plays every day. Check, check, double-check.

Alright, alright – let’s leave the OTP Thunderdome and get back to getting properly sleepy. Or slug some cafecito and get hyped about going down south. Because Miami.

Bryan De La Cruz, OF, MIA

It might not even be November yet but we might as well bust out who will likely end up as one of my most rostered in 2023. Who is, unfortunately, a Marlin – I’m sure this’ll go great.

De La Cruz came to Miami via Houston in a 2021 deadline deal for Yimi Garcia, having upped his prospect value that year after hitting 12 HR in 293 PA at Triple-A after hitting just 8 HR total over 483 PA at High-A and Double-A in 2019. The Marlins threw him right into the fire after the trade and De La Cruz more than held his own over 58 games and 219 PA, slashing .296/.356/.427, with 4 HR and a .423 wOBA.

But a starting gig in 2023 was not to be, following the signings of Jorge Soler and Avisaíl García, and a desire for Jesús Sánchez to round out the starting outfield. Pushed to a fourth outfielder role, De La Cruz struggled mightily, slashing just .205/.249/.332 over 50 games and 261 PA before being mercifully demoted in the middle of August.

Rather than languishing in a minor league pity party, though, De La Cruz looked to improve his approach, wanting to make more contact and make it more consistently, relying on a knowledge of the zone that had always been high. And with the new approach, came a tweak to his swing, trading a leg lift for something more of a toe tap.

Here he was hitting a home run off of Noah Syndergaard prior to being demoted:

And here is his hitting another one off of Syndergaard after his return:

De La Cruz absolutely mashed in his short trip back to the minors, hitting four home runs in 54 PA and putting up a .990 OPS .423 wOBA. And he didn’t really slow down upon returning to the show. Whether it was the toe-tap, approach change, or just a continuation of what he showed at all levels in 2021, the De La Cruz that ended September in the majors was the best version yet:

And DLC did it while backing up what he said he was going to do in regards to a more focused approach. He ran a 71% Cont% prior to his demotion in August, a far cry from the 77% Cont% he posted in 2021, but during his September return, it was back up to 77% Cont%. It wasn’t just more contact, as De La Cruz was also trusting his eye more, ticking up a point on his zSwing% but dropping from a 33% oSwing% to a 28% oSwing%. That 44 zSw%-oSw% (one of the better measures of overall plate discipline) in September was up from a 38% Z-O for the first part of the season. If qualified, that’s the difference between the 45th and 85th percentiles.

More contact and a better eye are great but De La Cruz also had the exit velocity receipts to back up the continued power upgraddes he’s been showing since back in Houston. A 5% Brl% and 4% Brl per PA from 2021 were both more than doubled in 2022, coming in at 12% and 8%, respectively. And his average velocity on balls in the air rose from 90.1 mph to 94.8 mph – or, going from the 20th percentile to the 90th.

Remember, those are year-long numbers, though, so even with the disastrous start to his season dragging things down, the EVs were still booming. But when looking at just September, things got downright gaudy. After returning from the minors, De La Cruz ran a 18% Brl%, 13% Brl per PA, and an average EV on balls in the air of 96.8 mph. For context, those rates would have respectively placed him 6th, 3rd, and 16th on the year-long leaderboards.

More barrels, harder-hit balls in the air, and better pitch selection?

Focused hitting – Activate:

That’s what we in the biz like to call, living in the boom zone*.

* No one calls it that

Am I saying Bryan De La Cruz is now Aaron Judge? No! But it needs to be noted when someone puts up those kinds of numbers after a steady progression of power improvements along multiple stops over the past two seasons. Especially when that someone tells us precisely where he needs to improve and then actually follows through. Between the better approach, increased plate discipline, and elite jumps in power metrics, our guy DLC might as well be holding up a sign saying, “Hey! You! Breakout happening over here! Right here! I know it’s in Miami but still! Please?!”.

Okay, the above is all well and good – but will De La Cruz even play? We are talking about the Marlins, after all. The same personnel that pushed him to a fourth outfielder last year are still in Miami, but those three assumed starters (Soler, García, and Sánchez) only managed to combine for a total of 144 games in 2022, with their production on the field, coming in as poor as their attendance records. And the other Marlins who filled in at outfielder weren’t any better, with De La Cruz’s .725 OPS and .313 wOBA leading the pack by a decided margin in 2022:

Besides performance, however, there is also the matter of money – Soler and García are only in the second year of their respective contracts and are due a total of $27 million in 2023 (Sánchez is still two years from arbitration). But contracts don’t always mean much when you’re a Marlin and I’m sure Miami would be happy to ship one, or both, of them out, if someone were willing to offer them a bag of beans (and cash). Especially if they already have a ready-made (and cheaper) replacement in De La Cruz.

How It Goes Right

De La Cruz gets an outfield job to himself, batting near the middle of the order and racking up ~600 PA. The Marlins are again mostly terrible but this combination of playing every day and hitting up in the lineup allows him to compile enough runs and RBI to not be a drag on his profile. And while he won’t run a lot, Cruz does have above-average speed and won’t, at least, be a total zero on stolen bases.

With the above, plus the high batting average he’s shown before and believing in a continued power bump (though below the rate he hit in September), let’s hope-cast him for something around the following (over 600 PA):

27 HR – 75 R – 83 RBI – 7 SB – .273 AVG

Nothing flashy but the above would’ve been a top-50 hitter last season. All for the low, low price of a likely post-250 ADP. Unless you’re me and want to set the current clubhouse minimum.

How It Goes Wrong

Umm, about the same way as in 2022? As in, he doesn’t have a full-time role immediately out of spring training and is underwhelming when he does plays, spending the year as the odd man out in a Miami poo-poo platter. In which case, I’ll churn him right back to the waiver wire and not get stressed out about burning a post-250 draft pick. Easy peasy.