Keep, Cut, Start – Volume Two

It’s getting even later in the fantasy season and endgame strategies are starting to come into play. While it is possible to guide your offense toward specific categories, a greater impact can be made with how you direct your pitching, depending on which categories you are looking to massage, and so that’s where we’ll continue to focus.

Round 2…Fight!

Last week on “Keep, Cut, Start”, we kicked things off by discussing how late-season pitching strategies can differ from the rest of the year and talked about the situations that may call for more difficult decisions on sitting (or possibly cutting) starters who’ve been returning a lot of value in 2022.

For a starting point on overall value, I did some basic z-scoring to put a dollar value on the totality of a player’s stats, splitting the season into two periods (April – June, and July – present). We’ll do the same thing in this edition but will adjust our arbitrary endpoints, swapping in the All-Star break as our line of demarcation. This is a more classic 1st half/2nd half configuration but it wasn’t done for convenience. I like to look at starting pitchers in chunks of 6-8 (ish) starts, which using the second half currently lines up with. Easy peasy.

For further explanations on methodology, please check in on Volume One but we have no time to waste so let’s get to it. Below are the top 150 starting pitchers in total value for 2022, along with how they’ve ranked in the first and second halves. Also included are their stats in each period for the classic roto categories. These charts won’t provide the full answers for who to keep, cut, or start, but hopefully looking at how and where different fantasy contributions have come from will help you make a more informed decision.

After the jump, we’ll again take a closer look at four starters whose value ranks have cratered in the second half. But do feel free to hit me up in the comments about anyone else you’re starting to question.

Miles Mikolas, STL, SP 25 Overall (1st: SP 14, 2nd: SP 81)

It turns out that pitching to contact without having overpowering stuff can sometimes lead to large drops in value. Mikolas earned his top-25 value with a combination of seven wins and excellent ratios over a pile of innings (120.1 IP) in the first half that trailed only Sandy Alcantara (138.1 IP) and Aaron Nola (126.2 IP). But the value edge that low-K pitchers walk is narrow and Mikolas’s fall in the second half has come on the backs of a 5.56 ERA (up from 2.54 ERA) and 1.21 WHIP (up from 0.96 WHIP) that’s backed by a strikeout rate that has dropped even further, from a 19.5% K% to a 15.8% K%.

Good News: Mikolas is still pitching deep into games (6.3 IP per start in the first half, 6.2 IP in the second half) and is still backed by an elite defense, an excellent bullpen, and one of baseball’s hottest offenses. And while his ERA has blown up in the second half, a 3.77 FIP and 4.14 SIERA look a lot like a 3.69 FIP and 3.92 SIERA in the first half. The WHIP is also up but not driven by a lack of control, with a 3.3% BB% down from 4.9%. But the BABIP gods have come a calling, rising from a .234 BABIP in the first to a .296 BABIP in the second.

Bad News: The ratios from the first half weren’t exactly deserved and you shouldn’t expect them to return – Mikolas is a 4.00 ERA/1.20 WHIP kind of guy and reasonable analysis points towards that continuing to be the case. And you’re not going to get bailed out by seeing a sudden surge in whiffs; we know what Mikolas is by now, right? The drop in K% in the second half has come with drops in overall SwStr% and oSwing% but it’s been his slider (27% usage) carrying the load, dropping from an 11.5% SwStr% and 34.6% oSwing% in the first half, to a 7.3% SwStr% and  24.3% oSwing%.

Verdict: Hold but keep the axe sharp

This is about managing expectations, as much as anything. You’re not getting strikeouts and the ratios continue to look dicier and dicier but given the team behind him, solid wins should stay in play.

But the best case for holding Mikolas lies with the upcoming schedule. His next start comes in Cincinnati (21st in wOBA, 28th in xwOBA vs RHP in the second half), followed by likely starts against Washington (23rd in wOBA, 24th in xwOBA) and Pittsburgh (29th in wOBA, 27th in xwOBA).

Logan Webb, SF, SP 32 Overall (1st: SP 17, 2nd: SP 99)

I live by a simple rule; any time the woeful Tigers hang a six spot on you, we must question your roster spot. That’s exactly what happened to Webb in his last start, allowing 6 ER over 4.2 IP to Detroit, after allowing five runs (3 ER) to Arizona in his previous start. And while he only allowed a total of 2 ER over 15 IP in his previous two starts, let’s keep in mind that they came against Pittsburgh and Oakland, arguably baseball’s two worst offenses.

Good News: Webb is still racking up innings, though, he has dropped from 6.2 IP per start in the first half, to 5.9 IP per start in the second half. But lots of innings can help buffer a 19.9% K% that is down from a 26.5% K% in 2021. And Webb continues to be one of baseball’s most effective groundballers, with a 62.0% GB% in the second half that is up from a 57.0% GB% in the first half. The sinker has still been a bowling ball, generating a 67.3% GB% and his changeup has risen from a 66.1% GB% to 75.0% GB%.

Bad News: Hitters have just stopped chasing his sinker/slider combo and are more than happy to wait until Webb comes back into the zone. His overall chase rate has dropped three points in the second half but the slider has dropped by five points, while the sinker is down seven points. The damage done to the sinker has stayed steady, with a .386 wOBA on contact in the first half and a .383 wOBA on contact in the second half. But batters have been teeing off on his slider, with a .324 wOBAcon rising to a .442 wOBAcon in the second half. No wonder they’re waiting. But hey, that’s backed by a way more reasonable .316 xwOBAcon, so that’s pretty good, right?

However, expected results aside, fewer chases have naturally led to more free passes, helping to nullify the low walk rate that has been one of his strengths. Webb has a 9.4% BB% in the second half, up from a 5.9% BB% in the first half, and a 6.0% BB% in 2021.

Verdict: Hold but on ice

I’m a big fan of Webb but his second half has been a disaster, even with a cakey schedule. Two starts against the Dodgers isn’t much fun but his other five starts have come against DET, ARI (twice), OAK, and PIT.

A scheduled start against the Padres in his next turn is dangerous but on the positive side, Webb has dominated San Diego in two meetings this season, with an 8 IP/1 ER outcome in both. But after that, he lines up to go on the road to face the Dodgers, followed by another road game against the Cubs, before coming home to face Atlanta. And after that? Coors.

Schedules change and things can flip but that’s not a probable path that I’d want any part of.

Pablo López, MIA, SP 41 Overall (1st: SP 28, 2nd: SP 97)

López has delivered on much of his stuff-driven promise but has come somewhat undone in the second half, though, he did bounce back in his last start, striking out five batters over six shutout innings and picking up the win. But it came against Oakland, so again, we can award full stats but only half credit. In the rest of the second half, López has allowed four earned or more in four of six starts, posting a 6.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP even after including his most recent excellent outing.

Good News: That 6.00 ERA in the second half had a 3.90 FIP and 3.82 SIERA that aren’t too far removed from a 3.64 FIP and 3.82 SIERA in the first half. And the aforementioned vengeful gods of BABIP are the ones wreaking havoc on his WHIP, as he’s dropped from a 7.7% BB% to a 6.3% BB%. But a .256 BABIP rising to a .346 BABIP means a lot more hits, and that’s with more fly balls, with a 24.8% FB% (does not include pop-ups) increasing to a 30.0% FB%.

Bad News: For one, López still pitches for the Marlins, so I wouldn’t get your hopes up banking on more wins (or even win). And even if those ratios eventually get wrangled in, I wouldn’t count on it any time soon, given Miami’s upcoming schedule. López is lined up for two starts next week but they come against the Dodgers and Braves. In the second half vs RHP, the Dodgers are 1st in wOBA, 3rd in xwOBA, and with top-10 rates in K% and BB%. And Atlanta isn’t much worse, ranking 5th in both wOBA and xwOBA, though, they do love to whiff, ranking 3rd in K%.Woof.

Verdict: Cut as necessary 

The talent may say hold but the schedule is screaming for a cut if you’re in a roster crunch. I get it’s hard to sit (or cut) a top-50 pitcher on a two-start week but you’re much braver than I if you’re rolling out López against Los Angeles and Atlanta. Picking up even one win seems overly optimistic and the ratio downside of facing two of baseball’s best offenses feels way too risky as we enter September, even if he’s carrying double-digit strikeouts (I’m looking at you, Atlanta). And after those two starts, things aren’t scheduled to get any easier, with López currently lined up to face the Mets and Phillies afterward.

Keeping track, his upcoming schedule currently looks like LAD, ATL, NYM, and PHI – and that’s just not something I’m keen to mess with. So, unless you have a roster spot for a guy who might not be usable until mid-September, the reasons to keep López are dwindling.

Sean Manaea, SD, SP 75 Overall (1st: SP 63, 2nd: SP 103)

Manaea bounced back in his most recent start, picking up a Win over the Nationals after allowing 1 ER over 7 IP and striking out four. But before that, he’d looked increasingly washed in the second half, allowing 8 ER in a blowup against the Dodgers but also allowing 4 ER in 3.1 IP to the Tigers and 3 ER in 4 IP to the Marlins.

Good News: If you throw out the beating applied by the Dodgers, Manaea has a 4.62 ERA in the second half. Well, that news isn’t actually that good. How about this – his 6.44 ERA from the second half comes with a 5.41 FIP! Crap. This isn’t going very well. But a 3.60 SIERA…Ha-ha! Good news acquired.

Also interesting is Manaea’s new and improved changeup, which he’s used 30% of the time in the second half, up from 23% in the first half, averaging 86.4 mph, up from 84.1 mph. The faster changeup has seen an eight-point bump in CSW% (24.2% to 32.4%), increasing from a 14.9% SwStr% to a 19.9% SwStr%.

Bad News: The changeup might be getting more whiffs but nothing else is. Manaea’s sinker has dropped about three points on both CSW% and SwStr%, while his slider has seen about a two-point drop on each. But while a 24.0% K% is down from a 25.7% K% in 2021, it has stayed steady by half, as has an overall 11.8% SwStr%.

Manaea hasn’t seen any dips in his sinker velocity and is throwing his changeup (and slider) harder. But watching him pitch is just giving off some serious washed (for the season) vibes as he just seems way more crushable, and a 2.5 HR/9 that’s up from a 1.3 HR/9 doesn’t disagree.

While he was always going to be a mid-range WHIP guy, a 1.50 WHIP in the second half is beyond the pale, and that’s with him cutting a 9.1% BB% to a 5.3% BB%  that is more in line with the 5.4% BB% he posted in 2021. No, that WHIP bomb is packed with BABIP powder, with a .345 BABIP in the second half up 75 points from the first half. And the fuse isn’t more groundballs (1st half: 39.1% GB%, 2nd half: 37.8% GB%), batters are lighting that candle with more elevation, as they’ve posted a 38.3% FB% (does not include pop-ups) against him in the second half, up from a 32.1% FB% in the first half.

Verdict: Start but with a side of ice…Like, All of the ice

Putting all of the above aside, his upcoming schedule is what should rule the day of your roster decisions. Manaea’s next start against Kansas City is still a go but after that the waters get choppy. Really, really (really!) choppy.

After the Royals, Manaea is currently lined up to face the Dodgers for back-to-back turns, before getting the Diamondbacks and Cardinals at home. And the turn after that? Dodgers. Yikes. As mentioned, schedules can change in a hurry. But that is also not a probable path that can simply be ignored, with Manaea staring down a five-start stretch that includes the Dodgers three times and St. Louis. And as a quick side-bar, if Manaea’s schedule, for whatever reason, does get adjusted by a day or two, the most likely outcome will be swapping the start against the Cardinals for one in Colorado. Double yikes.

Even if you believe in Manaea’s second-half hiccups getting turned around, he’s another starter whose schedule might dictate him riding your bench for much of September.

**Double Bonus Lighting Round**

Like I would leave you, my faithful(?) readers without a little hot chart, bonus action…Now with all-new oSwing%! Enjoy and stay safe on those mean fantasy streets.





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vanno64
1 year ago

Great content – again! Your recent string of articles have been *outstanding.* Very helpful info – thanks so much!

Here are a couple observations that enhance your case for holding Mikolas. First, a small clarification on his schedule. He has pitched every 5 days regardless of STL’s off days, so I believe his upcoming schedule is actually @CIN, vsCHC (9/3) and vsWAS (9/8)…not CIN, WAS, PIT. Second, he has fared MUCH better at home than away in each of his 4 years with STL. Assuming he indeed faces CHC and WAS early next month, he’s then lined up for two MORE home games on 9/13 (MLW) and 9/18 (CIN). So his next 5 games could include 4 home games after the away date with CIN… that’s about as favorable as possible for him (and those of us who roster him!).

surfdoc37
1 year ago
Reply to  vanno64

Also re Mikolas, the Rockies administered a righteous 2 2/3 inning, 10 ER beat down at Coors which greatly distorts his 2H (~3.75 ERA without) splits and obviously his road splits too. If that speeding train was dodged he’s otherwise been very playable.