It’s Never Too Early For (Even) More 2023 Sleepers

Okay, just one-nneee more look at a couple of early sleepers, and then we’ll take this poor horse to the upstate farm it’s always dreamed of. This time out, let’s get heavy with the dongs, searching for some of that elusive late-draft power.

The power hitters you’ll tend to find later in drafts aren’t usually true one-trick ponies because of the natural ties that exist between home runs, runs, and RBI. But we can look at them similarly to OTP average and speed guys because their total value shakes out according to their likely categorical profile. As in, late power guys are usually going to come with at least one guaranteed category sink (speed) and another (batting average) that might only be a half sink, best case.

The players we’ll examine today aren’t from an ADP range that screams sleeper* but in today’s less powerful age, I’ll be a really happy camper if I can get close to 30 HR from the second half of the draft, without getting totally torpedoed in multiple categories. In fact, just finding a 30 HR player outside of the top-100, isn’t the easiest task anymore, regardless of any warts. In 2022, 23 players hit at least 30 HR – only five had higher than a 125 ADP on NFBC.

*But also, who cares about labels? Hipsters, that’s who. And we’re not hipsters, right?

We can evaluate late power booms the same way we did with batting average braces last week, and as you should any category specialist.

1. Eyes Open From the Jump – Before you take a player with a big wart(s), in the name of chasing a needed dragon, you should know both what you are buying and if you can even afford it. Yes, this is another public service announcement begging you to track your categories as you draft, in totality, as well as compared pre-draft percentile goals. Don’t guess, know exactly where you’re at. Not that pre-draft projections will necessarily come to fruition but they will give you a reasonable expectation of your team’s overall categorical profile. Buying a batting average sink because you think you’re mid-range but are actually tracking bottom-third, is a quick way to be punting on the category by June.
2. Get the Trick You Paid For – Accepting (and planning for) the aforementioned warts is one thing but all the plans in the world won’t matter if your pony comes up lame. If you’re trying to buy one category at the expense of another, they better at least do the one damn thing they’re supposed to.
3. Gravy, Please? – You know your team and what sinks it can afford and are confident in getting the trick you desire. But that doesn’t mean you can’t dream about where a little gravy might be found. Maybe it’s with a reasonable path to a batting average closer to .250 than to .220, maybe it’s a lineup spot/surrounding cast that might lead him to compile runs or RBI at more than an above-average clip. Or, maybe it’s just that the trick you bought hits the top tail of your expectations. What do you get when a player you were counting on for a .220 AVG and 30 HR, posts a .220 AVG but with 40 HR? That’s right; gravy party.
4. Gravy? Pfft, Please. – It’s fine to have reasonable hopes on where expectations might be exceeded but also be aware of the black holes that won’t be changing. It’s counterproductive to even entertain thoughts like, “Jon Berti once hit 6 HR in 287 PA, why can’t he hit 10+ this year?”, or “Maybe Eugenio Suárez will hit .280 again?”. Hopecast where you can, be realistic where you have to.

Ok, time to get to it. Using an arbitrary cutoff of a 150 ADP in NFBC (which, with 11 drafts in the books is slowly but surely getting to a reasonable sample size), we’ll take a look at some later power sources who might just smother your team in fantasy gravy, you big dirty fan.

Anthony Rizzo, 1B, NYY (169 ADP, 140 min – 189 max)

The fantasy prime versions of “old” man Rizzo got there with an elite overall profile, rather than getting carried with one mega tool. An excellent batting average, around 30 HR, and a mess of R+RBI that were piled up not only by the aforementioned HR and AVG but also by the compiler multiplier from a permanent spot in the middle of the order and a 650+ PA virtual guarantee. But Rizzo has now posted a sub- .225 AVG for two of the past three seasons, and the .248 AVG in 2021 wasn’t exactly the old prime cut. And after just 22 HR in 2021, the sun seemed to be setting on the 30 HR potential of years past, and along with it, his fantasy usefulness.

And then? Rizzo hit 32 HR in 2022, not just tying his career high but doing it in just 548 PA, blowing away the HR per PA rates he ran in the other three seasons that he hit the same total. So, was it a one-year fluke, or is 30-HR Tony back in our lives?

I’m betting on the latter and it’s not because he’s magically turning back his fantasy clock. I just think Rizzo is a really smart player who is better adapting to his “decline” by maximizing where he can best succeed, selling out for more power while taking full advantage of what his home ballpark gives him.

We call this the Joey Votto plan.

Rizzo’s rate of .058 HR per PA in 2022, a career-best, finished in the 97th percentile, as did his .061 HR/PA in the first half. Hell, even the .053 HR/PA that he dipped to in the second half still would’ve rated as a career-high.

But Nicklaus, should we really get carried away with a one-year power surge? After all, it was just a year ago that Rizzo ran a .038 HR/PA that was tied for the second-lowest of his career, and his 34 total HR in 2022 (including postseason) was backed by just a 29.9 xHR – that 4.1 difference tied him for the seventh-worst.

Okay, maybe we’re getting carried away. Or maybe, Rizzo is super aware of how you crack Yankee Stadium (and the laughably short porch in right) and is adapting his game to better press his advantages?

Here are the 19 home runs he hit at home in the regular season – anything stick out?

Huh. It seems Mr. Rizzo is aware of the park’s dimensions. But while it might be best actualized at the (tiny) house that Ruth built, Rizzo hasn’t just been yanking it at home – this is an all(most)-hands-on-deck situation, with 29 of his 32 home runs locked in just one direction.

Quack-quack-quack-quack-quack-quack—PULL!

This is not a mistake. Rizzo’s 46% Pull% in 2022 was three points higher than in the previous two seasons and around five points higher than the 40-41% range that he lived in during the fantasy heydays of pre-2020. But more pulls alone does not a power upgradde make. You also have to get it up in the air.

And Rizzo certainly did, with his new fly ball rate curing any dry mouths by going click-click, boom. His 35% FB% (without pop-ups) is not just a career-high; it cleared the old mark by eight points.

We can look to his launch angles for more evidence that this wasn’t an accident but a continued change in approach. Not only was Rizzo’s 19.3-degree average launch angle a career-high by a substantial margin but the share of his batted balls that came at greater than a 38-degree LA* has also dramatically increased. A 24% LA% (38+) was in the 89th percentile, up from the 74th in 2021 and the mid-60s he generally lived in before that.

* a good predictor of future power according to the Statcast correlations from EV analytics

To put it all in a picture, here are his total launch angles from 2020-21, compared to 2022. Take particular note of the decrease in the share of balls (both hits and outs) that came below 15 degrees, AKA getting up-up, and away:

A power-centered approach will only get you so far, though, if you’ve got can-of-corn pop. But luckily, Rizzo also has the third key to home run success, with his exit velocity and barrels rising right along with his launch angles and FB%. His 11% Brl% and 7.3% Brl/PA were both career highs, with the former finishing in the 76th percentile after failing to cross the 50th percentile since 2017. And his 93.5 mph average EV on balls in the air (fly balls + line drives), another new career high, was also in the 76th percentile.

Dramatic increases aside, 76th percentiles don’t exactly scream elite. But when combined with everything else (more fly balls, more pulls, still playing at Yankee Stadium), we can have a recipe for powerful success without needing any elite EV ingredients.

Going back to our totally official rules for evaluation, all of the above makes me quite confident in getting what we paid for, as it relates to 30-HR potential. But what about the damn gravy, I hear you cry. Where can it be had and from where will it be taken? To the big board!

Stolen Bases

Let’s get this out of the way. It is really, really unlikely that Rizzo reaches double-digit thefts, something he’s only done twice in his career, and not since 2017 (10 SB). He’s about a 5 SB kind of guy, finishing with 6 SB in each of the past two seasons, with his final steal of 2022 coming way back on June 16. Don’t expect anything and you won’t be disappointed.

Batting Average

As any Votto will tell you, there is a cost that comes with selling out for power – and thy name is batting average! And just as with Joey, the days of Rizzo living in the .280 range look to be long gone. Remember how LA% (38+ degrees) correlates well with future power? Well, it also comes with a severe downgrade on BABIP, and the batting average it informs. You’d hope for something better than the .216 BABIP Rizzo ran last year but as long as the homers keep coming, the .300 BABIPs from long ago won’t be returning. Count yourself lucky for anything over a .225 AVG.

Runs and RBI

Using the value system we laid out previously, Rizzo was the 70th-best hitter (non-catcher) in 2022. However, it was a sharp dropoff in value by half, as he was the #32 hitter in the first half but was only 158th in the second half. But what gave?

Part of it was the stolen bases, as he went from six to zero. But the batting average stayed steadily awful and while his home runs dipped some, going from the 97th to 92nd percentile shouldn’t have been a death blow.

No, it was the two remaining counters that did Rizzo’s overall value in, with his Runs per PA dropping from the 93rd percentile to the 60th, and his RBI per PA decreasing from the 93rd to the 37th. Not great. But was this Rizzo’s fault or just a byproduct of New York’s offensive collapse in the second half? Give me the latter, considering that while Rizzo was better in the first half, the drop-off in the second wasn’t extreme. Nor did his spot in the lineup shift dramatically, as he spent all season generally shuffling between second and third.

If you believe New York will again be a top offense in 2023 (hopefully for the whole season) and think Rizzo will continue to occupy the same range in the lineup then it’s easy to bet on an R+RBI bounceback. Unfortunately, the days of 650+ PA are likely long gone, so we can’t get too carried on hopecasting how many he’ll compile.

But let’s play sliding doors for a hot sec, to see how a little categorical gravy might start bubbling. Rizzo only had 186 PA in the second half (another cause of his value swoon) but even then he would’ve finished with an extra six runs and 11 RBI if his per-PA rates had stayed close to the same as they were in the first half. Again, I put more of the fault for those dips on his teammates, than on him, and am hopeful that we won’t see a repeat in 2023. But if the Yankees (inexplicably) don’t back up the truck and actually let Aaron Judge walk, maybe get back to me?

Official Conclusion

As mentioned previously, only five players past a 125 ADP managed to hit 30 HR in 2022. Anthony Rizzo was one of them then, and I believe he can knock on the door again, barring health, of course. Even with his more delicate body making 550-575 PA a more realistic projection, his evolving approach, and profile (and home park) will make him one of my favorite targets to get later power for my corner infield spot. Sure, he could be your primary first baseman but given that his noodle back will almost certainly cost him a couple of stints, I’d want a great backup.

Way Too Early NotBurt Hopecast:

565 PA: 29 HR – 82 R – 84 RBI – 5 SB – .224 AVG

Welp, it looks like I got totally carried away with Rizzo talk. Let’s finish with a few quick hits about one more guy with big-time pop.

Cal Raleigh, C, SEA (174 ADP, 128 min – 222 max)

Raleigh, Raleigh, Raleigh, oy-oy-oy. Cal went boom in 2023, taking over full-time duties in Seattle while smashing 27 HR in the process – and in just 415 PA! His HR per PA rate finished in the 98th percentile (10th overall), rising from the 96th in the first half to the 99th in the second. Or, for added context, only Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, and Albert Pujols hit home runs at a higher rate than Raleigh did in the second half. And while playing with a torn ligament in his hand for the last month!

This wasn’t an accident.

Big-time exit velocities?

Check. Pick a leaderboard and you’ll likely find Raleigh near the top 10: His 15.4% Brl% finished 8th (min 250 bbe) and a 9.4% Brl/BBE came in 11th. And keep in mind how rare this air is; we’re talking about the land that Judge, Alvarez, Trout, Schwarber, Stanton, and Ohtani have on lock. Live near them and you can’t be ignored.

Power Friendly Batted Balls?

Check. If you want balls in the air, Cal’s your guy. Raleigh posted a 62% Air% that was the 8th-highest (min 200 PA) and a 41.5% FB% that was second only to Mike Trout. And those numbers only increased as the year went on, running a 46% FB% in the second half that led the league. And if his launch angles tell us anything, it’s that this isn’t a mistake. Raleigh’s 22.5-degree average LA was in the top 10, while his 31% LA% (38+) was in the 99th percentile.

And he certainly pulls the ball plenty, running a 46% Pull% in 2022 that was well above average. But in the second half, he got back to yanking it as he had in his rookie season, posting a 50% Pull% that was virtually identical to the 48% Pull% he put up in 2021. And pulling the ball in Seattle is the way to go for power.

Here are the nine home runs Raleigh hit at home last year (remember that he’s a switch hitter)…quack-quack-quack:

Official Conclusion

I’m all in on the power but, like with Rizzo, you’re gonna have to eat that batting average and just hope he doesn’t drop too far below a .210 AVG because those launch angles tell me there’s no gravy coming. And obviously, there are no bags in sight.

No, if there’s any extra sauce to be had with Raleigh, it’ll come via an increase in plate appearances leading to more compiling of HR+R+RBI. Remember that 2022 started with Raleigh in a timeshare with Luis Torrens. But between struggling and the IL, Torrens quickly took a backseat, eventually being banished back to the minors for a spell. Presumably, Raleigh will be in for the lion’s share of playing time from jump street in 2023.

And with the departure of Carlos Santana (and a current dearth of good replacements), he might be in line for more time at DH on his days off from behind the plate. Personally, I think Seattle loves having his boom (and glove) in the lineup and will try their best to keep it there. And more PAs won’t just come from more games played, they’ll also pile up if he continues batting in the middle of the order (as that sort of power should). Raleigh spent much of the year batting in the bottom third of the lineup but spent the last month living in the middle.

Way Too Early NotBurt Hopecast:

470 PA: 29 HR – 61 R – 72 RBI – 1 SB – .211 AVG