Choose Your Final Pitchers Wisely

September 30, 2022

Six more days, just one more turn around the rotation. Whether you’re in the final leg of a head-to-head run or are trying to scrape out every last stat in roto, every single sit/start decision could carry season-ending ramifications. Let’s keep doing what we’ve been doing, breaking down all the minutiae you need to make your best decisions, and packaging it all in some not-so-fancy color coding.

As per usual, we have no time to waste. Closing time, folks. Time to grab those belts.

Listed below are starts currently scheduled on Roster Resource for Friday through Wednesday. Players are ordered by current value in 12-team leagues on the FanGraphs auction calculator and stats are given for two periods, with the first consisting of April – August, and the second being September only. Clicking on any chart will pull up a magnified version.

Let’s take a peek at a few starts on the docket before ending with all the charts you need to best evaluate your pitching options. The periods for individual stats remain the same (April – August, September) but the periods for Team stats (vs LHP, vs RHP) are April – July and August – Current.

Merrill Kelly 켈리, ARI (at SF, at MIL)

September: 5 GS – 32 IP – 3.94 ERA – 1.03 WHIP

Can we just pause to appreciate the under-the-radar excellence that Kelly has provided in 2022, after rocking a post-450 ADP? With a 3.13 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 13 Wins, Kelly enters this final stretch as the #31 SP according to the auction calculator, sandwiched between Joe Musgrove (73 ADP) and Chris Bassitt (130 ADP).

And a lot of that fantasy hay has been made when facing the Giants:

Five starts vs SF: 3-0, 1.53 ERA, 0.74 WHIP

Other 26 starts: 10-7, 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP

San Francisco tonight is a go but going to Milwaulkee on the last day of the season is a stinkier kettle of fish, considering the park and how much better the Brewers are against right-handers than against lefties. Plus, they’ve been particularly excellent against right-handed cutters, which Kelly has been excelling with:

Jordan Montgomery, STL (vs PIT)

September: 5 GS – 27 IP -4.67 ERA – 1.44 WHIP

Montgomery’s September numbers are a mess but it’s only been the last three starts that have pumped junk, as he ran a 0.71 ERA over his first two of the month. And his last outing was the worst (4 IP – 6 ER (3 HR) – 3 K) but came against the offensive juggernaut known as the Dodgers. As you are aware, the Pirates are not the Dodgers:

The changeup is still Monty’s moneymaker (35.7% CSW%, 24% SwStr%, 41.2% Whiff%) and I’m not sure how much the Pirates will have for it:

José Urquidy, HOU (vs PHI)

September: 5.01 ERA – 4.06 FIP – 1.24 WHIP

After allowing 6 ER in back-to-back outings, Urquidy got back on track in Baltimore, picking up the loss but only allowing 1 ER over 5.1 IP, striking out six and walking one. But he’s going to pump ~50% four-seamers and Philadelphia has been handling heaters from right-handers all season:

Pablo López, MIA (at MIL)

September: 5.33 ERA – 3.86 FIP – 1.26 WHIP

López’s numbers are ugly in September but a lot of that is wrapped up in allowing 8 ER in 3.2 IP to the Mets on September 10. In his three starts since López has posted a 2.79 ERA (3.79 FIP) over 19.1 IP, striking out 16 batters and picking up two wins. But like we talked about with Merrill Kelly previously, the Brewers are adept at punishing right-handed pitching:

And without any glaring weak spots against the changeups that López will be surviving on:

Drew Smyly, CHC (vs CIN)

September: 5.02 ERA – 5.98 FIP – 1.12 WHIP

Smyly has been on the shelf since September 14 with shoulder issues but is currently expected to complete his season at home against the Reds. He’s only pitched three times in September but the ugly ERA is weighed down by a smacking from the Cardinals, allowing 7 ER in 2.1 IP. In the two starts prior to going on the IL, Smyly allowed just 1 ER over 12 IP, picking up wins over the Giants and Mets.

The Reds have been surprisingly average vs left-handed pitching:

But against the left-handed curveballs that Smyly (31.2% CSW%, 17.7% SwStr%) will be looking to dominate batters with, Cincinnati has had plenty of struggles:

Mike Clevinger, SD (vs CHW)

September: 7.83 ERA – 7.46 FIP – 1.52 WHIP

Outside of a 5.2 IP/0 ER outlier outing vs STL, Clevinger has gotten absolutely hammered in September, allowing a total of 20 ER in the other four starts for the month. Granted, the opponents were difficult, with two starts against the Dodgers, one in Seattle, and one in Colorado. But while the White Sox have been adrift at sea for most of the season, their numbers vs RHP have at least improved since the start of August:

Ok, so maybe we’re exaggerating the improvements but c’mon! We gotta give White Sox fans something to wash out some of that bitter 2022 vintage they’ve been chugging all year.

**Bonus Charts**

Alright, friends, this is farewell – at least when it comes to the 2022 season. Hopefully, this has been helpful. May all of you bring home championship belts and, as always, thank you for reading.

Now for some hot chart action:

Opponent Ranks vs Starter Handedness