Archive for First Base

Some of this is being repeated from the Primer piece that went up this morning. 

We’re bringing them to you earlier this year, but that also means that they’re far from set in stone so take that into consideration as you peruse them. There are still strong arms on the free agent market, let alone all the moving and shaking that happens once players start reporting to camp.

• Outfielder (Jan. 18)
• Starting Pitcher (Jan. 20)
• Shortstop (Jan. 22)
• First Base (Jan. 25-today)
• Catcher (Jan. 26)
• Second Base (Jan. 27)
• Third Base (Jan. 28)
• DH (Jan. 29)
• Reliever (Jan. 29 courtesy of the Bullpen Report crew)

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league.  If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments.

We can also be reached via Twitter:

• Paul Sporer
• Jeff Zimmerman
• Zach Sanders
• Mike Podhorzer
• Dan Schwartz
• Brad Johnson
• Paul Kastava

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?!

Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. Like I said, it’s early. Things are going to change.

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We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

The Astros shocked the baseball world in 2015, improving from a 70-92 record in 2014 to an 86-76 mark, which earned the team a playoff berth for the first time in a decade. Houston benefited from great pitching — finishing the season with the best team ERA in the American League — but that’s not to take anything away from the team’s prolific bats. The Astros were second in the majors in home runs (230) and on base plus slugging (.752), as well as sixth in runs scored (729).

Still, Houston approaches 2016 with a huge question mark at first base, as well as potentially complicated situations in the outfield and behind the plate. Time to sort these situations out, and see if there’s any sneaky fantasy appeal at hand.

FIRST BASE

Jon Singleton currently projects to be the Astros likely Opening Day first baseman, but his leash will unquestionably be mighty short. The 24-year-old hasn’t had much of an issue handling Triple-A pitching in the last two years, but neither his power nor his contact abilities have translated to the majors. That’s a bit of an issue when discussing a defensively limited 1B.

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We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

The 2015 Toronto Blue Jays owned baseball’s best offense no matter how you slice it. They outscored the next-highest team by 127 runs, they topped the league in home runs, they set the pace in on-base percentage and slugging percentage, and their weighted runs created-plus of 117 was the league’s high-water mark dating back to the 2007 New York Yankees. The Jays will return their top eight players in terms of plate appearances from a year ago, plus deadline-week acquisition Troy Tulowitzki, so there’s little concern this won’t be an elite offensive outfit once again.

That doesn’t mean there aren’t question marks. The Blue Jays are set at six positions but have playing time at three spots up for grabs, plus a major batting order question to answer.
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Guess what, we’re still evaluating playing time battles in preparation for the 2016 fantasy baseball season. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in this post. I already slogged through the Philadelphia Phillies pitchers, so let’s just hammer out the rest of their roster battles.

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Over the next several weeks, RotoGraphs will highlight intriguing position battles that could have implications both on the field and in your fantasy draft. This week, we focus on the AL East.

In case you’re wondering how to characterize the New York Yankees’ front office strategy, you need only ask GM Brian Cashman. “You want to get younger, athletic, and good…That’s what we’re trying to do.” The Yankees’ 40-is-the-new-27 experiment is coming to an end and while 2016 won’t yet be the Year of the Millennial in the Bronx, young talent at first base, catcher, and the outfield signal that time could be coming soon.

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Every year after the RotoGraphs consensus positional rankings are published, I compare my column of ranks to a recalculated consensus after excluding mine. It’s a fun little activity and it allows me to figure out why I might be more bullish or bearish on a particular player than the rest of the crew. Although I published all infielders in one post in the preseason, I’ll only look at a couple of positions at a time for the recaps. We’ll start with the catchers and first basemen.

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First base prospects are probably the easiest to analyze for fantasy and dynasty purposes. At other positions, particularly up the middle, we’re left to guess future production. Some guys grow, some just adjust well to major league pitcher (Joe Panik), and others linger for years before flashing upside (Zack Cozart). Unlike those skilled positions, a player does not become a first base prospect if he’s not already demonstrating serious talent at the plate.

With that in mind, let’s talk about my four favorite first base prospects. Three of these guys are adjacent to the majors which means they’re owned in any self-respecting dynasty league. This article isn’t about guys you can find for free, it’s meant to highlight the biggest up-and-coming names at the position.

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Mitch Moreland had a career year in 2015. He only matched his previous high in home runs (23), but his AVG, OBP, SLG, 2B, and RBI totals were all the best of his six-year career. He only needed 132 games to set a new high in AB with 471, but his 515 PA were actually only second-highest for him. Was it real? Can he repeat or even grow as he enters his age-30 season?

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Entering the season, Mike Trout was the consensus first overall pick. Paul Goldschmidt was part of an elite crew under consideration for the second selection. There was some wariness over the hand injury that ended his 2014 season, but it turns out there was no cause for concern. He posted a monstrous 103/33/110/21/.321 roto-season. According to our (not-so) esoteric maths, he was the most valuable first baseman at a hair under $37.

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For the first time this year, I decided to compare my Pod Projections to Steamer and discuss the players we disagreed on most. Of the hitters we both projected, it was clear I was much more optimistic than Steamer on the whole. However, for Jose Abreu I was actually significantly more pessimistic.

In the review of this series, I will be including my original Pod Projection, and Steamer counting stat projections extrapolated over the same number of plate appearances that I had projected. However, I included Steamer’s actual PA projection in that column. Also included are the player’s 2015 stats, plus the counting stats extrapolated over the number of PA I projected.

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