Yankees’ Playing Time Battles: Hitters

Over the next several weeks, RotoGraphs will highlight intriguing position battles that could have implications both on the field and in your fantasy draft. This week, we focus on the AL East.

In case you’re wondering how to characterize the New York Yankees’ front office strategy, you need only ask GM Brian Cashman. “You want to get younger, athletic, and good…That’s what we’re trying to do.” The Yankees’ 40-is-the-new-27 experiment is coming to an end and while 2016 won’t yet be the Year of the Millennial in the Bronx, young talent at first base, catcher, and the outfield signal that time could be coming soon.

The Infield

Greg Bird took the Bronx by storm last summer but will likely start the year in AAA due to service time constraints. After joining the Yankees in August, Bird posted a 137 wRC+ while walking in nearly 11% of his plate appearances. Of course, he also struck out 30% of the time, far more frequently than he ever had in the minors. While he exhibited restraint on pitches outside of the zone, Bird struggled with making contact. Steamer and the Fans both foresee good things for Bird this year in limited playing time. However, at only 23 years old and with incumbent first baseman and totally square Gen X-er, Mark Teixeira, enjoying a resurgence of his own, the Yankees are in no hurry to burn through their future first baseman’s service time. Bird could get the call should an injury befall Teixeira or Alex Rodriguez but he holds more value in keeper and dynasty formats than in re-draft leagues.

The trade of backup catcher, John Ryan Murphy, to the Twins opened the door for two new Yankees, catcher Gary Sanchez and outfielder Aaron Hicks. Sanchez has hit well at all levels of the minors since being signed out of the Dominican at age 16. He shows a promising mix of patience and power. Now 23, he starts the year as Brian McCann’s backup. But with just 2 major league plate appearances to his name and an entrenched veteran signed through 2018 squatting in his way, Sanchez, like Bird, holds more value in keeper and dynasty formats than in re-draft leagues.

The Outfield

The most intriguing addition to the Yankees’ lineup and the primary focus of this article is Aaron Hicks, a slick fielding switch hitter with a discerning eye who steals bases and punishes lefties. Currently sitting 4th on the depth chart behind Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, and Carlos Beltran, Hicks possesses an intriguing mix of speed, pop, and plate discipline. As importantly, he has a clear path to (albeit limited) playing time with the potential to play every day if Beltran struggles out of the gate yet again or succumbs to injury.

This is not a Carlos Beltran obituary so much as an endorsement of one of the Bronx’s newest tenants. Let’s be clear: Carlos Beltran goes into 2016 as the Yankees’ starting right fielder coming off of a season in which he posted a 116 wRC+. He’s still really good at hitting baseballs. That said, he’s entering the last year of his deal and has shown clear signs of a decline in recent seasons, particularly in three areas: on defense, versus lefties, and on the basepaths, three areas in which Hicks excels.

First, let’s evaluate Hicks’ opportunity. Last season, he batted .307/.375/.495 against lefties. He also hit 6 of his 11 home runs vs southpaws despite logging less than half as many plate appearances as he did against righties. In 2015, noted lefty-killer and part-time outfielder, Chris Young, ranked 4th on the Yankees in PAs vs. lefties, ahead of both Ellsbury and Beltran. Hicks may be on the wrong side of a platoon but given Girardi’s proclivity to mix and match based on handedness, at the very least he possesses value in deeper leagues for his ability to hit lefties alone.

Hicks is also a massive upgrade defensively in right field. At 38 years old, Beltran has clearly lost a step, posting negative UZR/150 in each of the last 3 seasons and hasn’t been better than league average since 2008. Lead-footed corner outfielders are hardly the rage these days but they aren’t uncommon, especially when they make up for it offensively. So why should this matter to the Yankees? Last season, AL East rivals the Orioles, Rays, and Jays ranked 3rd, 4th, and 5th, respectively in AL FB% while the Yankees’ outfield collectively rated below average according most advanced defensive metrics. A center fielder by trade, Hicks provides Girardi an upgrade in right and the flexibility in center and left to rest Gardner and the oft-injured Ellsbury. Oh yea, and he can also do this:

aaronhicks

Now, what makes Hicks an interesting fantasy commodity? Hicks features a nice mix of power and patience. He’s posted strong walk rates at each stop in the minors and through 900 PAs with the Twins. Last season, he swung at only 24.7% of pitches outside of the zone which, if he had logged enough PAs, would have ranked 14th out of 162 batters. He also swung and missed just 8.7% of the time, which would have been good enough for 69th.

As for fantasy relevant stats, Hicks hit 11 home runs and stole 13 bases last season in just 390 PAs, which when combined with his plate discipline places him in some pretty elite company. Below is a list of the only players in 2015 to match him in HR, SBs, and K%-BB%, sorted by PAs.

PA HR SB K%-BB%
Manny Machado 713 35 20 5.8%
Anthony Rizzo 701 31 17 3.9%
Paul Goldschmidt 695 33 21 4.7%
A.J. Pollock 673 20 39 5.3%
Jason Heyward 610 13 23 5.6%
Jose Altuve 689 15 38 4.9%
Brandon Phillips 623 12 23 6.6%
Mookie Betts 654 18 21 5.5%
Michael Brantley 596 15 15 -1.5%
Aaron Hicks 390 11 13 8.20%

Over 600 PAs, Hicks’ HR and SB totals prorate out to 17 and 20, respectively. Only Machado, Goldschmidt, Pollock, and Betts put up those numbers last year while matching Hicks’ KK%-BB%. And neither his .285 BABIP, nearly 40 points lower than his xBABIP, nor his reasonable 11.1% HR/FB rate screams negative regression.

This isn’t to say Hicks isn’t without his flaws. He still has trouble hitting righties, posting an 80 wRC+ against them in 2015. He even temporarily gave up switch hitting in 2014 before Rod Carew convinced him otherwise. He’s also yet to fulfill the power potential he flashed as a prospect. Despite his 11 HRs in limited playing time last year, his .142 ISO would have ranked 95th out of 142 qualified hitters (just ahead of new teammate Brett Gardner, coincidentally) and his SLG 103rd. Hicks will have to show improvement against right-handers to log enough playing time and be anything more than a match-up play in standard leagues. But a move to Yankee Stadium, which has averaged a 114 HR Park Factor for left-handed batters over the last 3 seasons could dramatically help Hicks who’s played those seasons under Target Field’s oppressive dimensions.

Hicks probably isn’t the star the Twins hoped they drafted with the #14 overall pick in 2008. But given his advanced approach at the plate, pedigree, and move to friendlier confines, Hicks is a power-speed breakout candidate at a bargain price. Steamer projects eerily similar production to both Gardner and Ellsbury over 600 PAs so the system likes his talent. Gambling on playing time is a risky proposition but in this case, it’s a bet I’m placing in all leagues, particularly OBP and keeper formats.





Rylan writes for Fangraphs and The Hardball Times. Look for his weekly Deep League Waiver Wire and The Chacon Zone columns this season.

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Frankenstein
8 years ago

Not one mention of Dustin Ackley? The guy they’ve been reportedly after for a few years, tendered a contract to in 2016 to and hit .288/.333/.654 after they acquired him.

danny c
8 years ago
Reply to  Frankenstein

unfortunately, ackely is probably the 5th Ofer and maybe back up 2nd basemen at this point. which is a shame because if you prorate his WAR to 600 PAs, its similar to castro’s at a fraction of the price.

Cory Settoon
8 years ago
Reply to  danny c

Probably a super utility guy. Can play 1st 2nd and the OF. Makes for a great platoon with Castro.

Frankenstein
8 years ago
Reply to  Rylan Edwards

Of course. It still looks like he’ll be the RF if and when their 39 year old starter goes down and he’s probably the guy at 2B if Castro happens to miss time.