Rotographs Rankings First Run – First Basemen
Some of this is being repeated from the Primer piece that went up this morning.
We’re bringing them to you earlier this year, but that also means that they’re far from set in stone so take that into consideration as you peruse them. There are still strong arms on the free agent market, let alone all the moving and shaking that happens once players start reporting to camp.
- Outfielder (Jan. 18)
- Starting Pitcher (Jan. 20)
- Shortstop (Jan. 22)
- First Base (Jan. 25-today)
- Catcher (Jan. 26)
- Second Base (Jan. 27)
- Third Base (Jan. 28)
- DH (Jan. 29)
- Reliever (Jan. 29 courtesy of the Bullpen Report crew)
We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments.
We can also be reached via Twitter:
There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?!
Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. Like I said, it’s early. Things are going to change.
The chart is sortable and by default it’s sorted by AVG. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1. That would be 43 for Zach, 37 for Mike, 43 for Brad, and 55 for Paul K. Everyone in the top 50 were on the lists of Jeff, Dan, and myself so we don’t have any +1s. They are indicated in red on the chart.
Key:
- AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
- Adj. AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
- SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings
| PLAYER | Jeff | Zach | Dan | Mike | Brad | Paul S | Paul K | AVG | Adj. AVG | Split | |
| 1 | Paul Goldschmidt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 |
| 2 | Anthony Rizzo | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1 |
| 3 | Miguel Cabrera | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1 |
| 4 | Jose Abreu | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2 |
| 5 | Edwin Encarnacion | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2 |
| 6 | Joey Votto | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 2 |
| 7 | Chris Davis | 12 | 6 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 8 |
| 8 | Prince Fielder | 7 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 8 |
| 9 | David Ortiz | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 2 |
| 10 | Freddie Freeman | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 6 |
| 11 | Eric Hosmer | 11 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 4 |
| 12 | Adrian Gonzalez | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 11.9 | 12.0 | 3 |
| 13 | Albert Pujols | 8 | 16 | 9 | 13 | 20 | 18 | 13 | 13.9 | 13.8 | 12 |
| 14 | Buster Posey | 19 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 14.0 | 14.2 | 11 |
| 15 | Brandon Belt | 20 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 9 |
| 16 | Kendrys Morales | 15 | 22 | 19 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 22 | 18.1 | 18.0 | 7 |
| 17 | Carlos Santana | 21 | 19 | 23 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 20 | 18.6 | 18.4 | 8 |
| 18 | Victor Martinez | 17 | 13 | 15 | 22 | 25 | 27 | 15 | 19.1 | 18.8 | 14 |
| 19 | Mark Trumbo | 14 | 14 | 17 | 19 | 35 | 20 | 19 | 19.7 | 17.8 | 21 |
| 20 | Lucas Duda | 26 | 17 | 22 | 18 | 16 | 23 | 18 | 20.0 | 19.6 | 10 |
| 21 | Mark Teixeira | 23 | 21 | 21 | 23 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 20.4 | 20.6 | 6 |
| 22 | Wil Myers | 18 | 23 | 20 | 20 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 22.4 | 20.4 | 21 |
| 23 | Daniel Murphy | 16 | 24 | 18 | 24 | 24 | 33 | 23 | 23.1 | 22.6 | 17 |
| 24 | Justin Turner | 25 | 25 | 26 | 25 | 27 | 28 | 25 | 25.9 | 25.6 | 3 |
| 25 | Adam Lind | 28 | 26 | 27 | 26 | 22 | 25 | 28 | 26.0 | 26.4 | 6 |
| 26 | Mitch Moreland | 29 | 20 | 25 | 27 | 37 | 26 | 26 | 27.1 | 26.6 | 17 |
| 27 | Ryan Zimmerman | 36 | 29 | 35 | 21 | 26 | 22 | 34 | 29.0 | 29.2 | 15 |
| 28 | Brian McCann | 31 | 31 | 29 | 30 | 18 | 34 | 30 | 29.0 | 30.2 | 16 |
| 29 | Chris Carter | 24 | 30 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 37 | 27 | 29.3 | 28.8 | 13 |
| 30 | Byung-ho Park | 32 | 28 | 30 | 32 | 31 | 24 | 32 | 29.9 | 30.6 | 8 |
| 31 | Matt Adams | 22 | 43 | 24 | 37 | 29 | 36 | 24 | 30.7 | 30.0 | 21 |
| 32 | Trevor Plouffe | 27 | 34 | 31 | 33 | 43 | 29 | 29 | 32.3 | 31.2 | 16 |
| 33 | Stephen Piscotty | 40 | 35 | 36 | 28 | 21 | 31 | 35 | 32.3 | 33.0 | 19 |
| 34 | Justin Bour | 35 | 41 | 34 | 31 | 36 | 21 | 33 | 33.0 | 33.8 | 20 |
| 35 | Joe Mauer | 33 | 27 | 33 | 34 | 43 | 32 | 31 | 33.3 | 32.6 | 16 |
| 36 | C.J. Cron | 30 | 38 | 32 | 35 | 33 | 51 | 36 | 36.4 | 34.8 | 21 |
| 37 | Logan Forsythe | 34 | 43 | 37 | 37 | 34 | 41 | 39 | 37.9 | 37.6 | 9 |
| 38 | Mike Napoli | 42 | 39 | 42 | 36 | 32 | 30 | 45 | 38.0 | 38.2 | 15 |
| 39 | Mark Canha | 39 | 33 | 40 | 37 | 43 | 43 | 40 | 39.3 | 39.8 | 10 |
| 40 | Stephen Vogt | 47 | 34 | 45 | 37 | 23 | 47 | 43 | 39.4 | 41.2 | 24 |
| 41 | Adam LaRoche | 37 | 43 | 38 | 37 | 43 | 45 | 37 | 40.0 | 39.6 | 8 |
| 42 | Brandon Moss | 50 | 36 | 51 | 37 | 28 | 35 | 49 | 40.9 | 41.4 | 23 |
| 43 | Pedro Alvarez | 41 | 42 | 41 | 37 | 41 | 49 | 38 | 41.3 | 40.6 | 12 |
| 44 | Luis Valbuena | 38 | 32 | 39 | 37 | 43 | 60 | 41 | 41.4 | 39.6 | 28 |
| 45 | Yonder Alonso | 43 | 40 | 43 | 37 | 43 | 42 | 44 | 41.7 | 42.2 | 7 |
| 46 | Ryan Howard | 44 | 43 | 47 | 37 | 42 | 46 | 47 | 43.7 | 44.4 | 10 |
| 47 | Justin Morneau | 48 | 43 | 46 | 37 | 39 | 53 | 42 | 44.0 | 43.6 | 16 |
| 48 | Yangervis Solarte | 51 | 43 | 50 | 37 | 43 | 38 | 55 | 45.3 | 45.0 | 18 |
| 49 | Gregory Bird | 61 | 43 | 49 | 37 | 43 | 40 | 48 | 45.9 | 44.6 | 24 |
| 50 | Logan Morrison | 49 | 43 | 54 | 37 | 40 | 44 | 54 | 45.9 | 46.0 | 17 |
| 51 | Chris Colabello | 54 | 37 | 52 | 37 | 43 | 48 | 50 | 45.9 | 46.0 | 17 |
| 52 | Ben Paulsen | 55 | 43 | 56 | 37 | 43 | 39 | 52 | 46.4 | 46.4 | 19 |
| 53 | Jon Singleton | 46 | 43 | 48 | 37 | 43 | 55 | 53 | 46.4 | 46.6 | 18 |
| 54 | James Loney | 45 | 43 | 44 | 37 | 43 | 68 | 46 | 46.6 | 44.2 | 31 |
| 55 | Steve Pearce | 52 | 43 | 53 | 37 | 43 | 58 | 51 | 48.1 | 48.4 | 21 |
Mack like Goldie, it’s the same story.
Ortiz is not going to have eligibility. 5 starts and 10 games played are not the requirements from season to season but the requirements to gain during the season. You can check… Ortiz started 5 games at 1b in 2014 but did not have 1b entering 2015. I personally hope he doesn’t have it to keep his value down.
Well he may have it, didn’t mean to say he won’t. But gaining last year doesn’t mean he keeps it this year.
Honestly, we’re just going with the 5 and 10 guidelines stated above to capture as many potentials as possible. Some leagues are more stringent, others are loser. We’re catering to a wider base and that’s the goal here.
Got ya, obviously tough to do this before registration opens. I’d be surprised if he has 1b eligibility anywhere though.
“others are loser”
[sic]?
He had 1B entering 2015 in Yahoo, and will again entering into 2016.
No he didn’t. I’m literally staring at my draft results fromast year as we speak:
He did, though – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/ortiz1b.jpg
Check those same results. Is machado listed as 3b only or SS aBd 3b? If it says SS as well then those positions are end of season.
I owned Ortiz in 2 yahoo leagues and I couldn’t play him at 1b until his 5th start. What was his Adp last year? That would prove if he was listed as 1b or utility.
My draft results are offline since we did a live auction.
You must be thinking of some other situation.
Here’s Yahoo’s expert rankings of 1B and it includes Ortiz. They use their own site’s criteria when making rankings:
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/fantasy-roto-arcade/fantasy-baseball-rankings–first-base-211845463.html
ScoKo, your league is not using Yahoo’s standard rules for eligibility. Literally everyone else is correct.
I distinctly remember being grumpy that Ortiz was 1B eligible because it meant I couldn’t sneak him off the board late.
I think ScoKo’s probably wrong about this ut it has to be said that sometimes Yahoo retrieves anachronistic objects so for instance when one looks at a past draft the positions (or teams even) are current not as they were
… So in Paul’s upload note Kimbrel is listed as with Boston! The listing of Ortiz on the Yahoo expert ranking top 1Bs list is better evidence (tho circumstantial)
FYI the key says AVG twice. Think you mean ADJ. AVG.
Thoughts on A.J. Reed? September call up instead of May?
He was 64th, but only Jeff and I ranked him. I imagine he will jump up in the updates.
I felt the position was deep enough that we didn’t need to look ahead to prospects yet.
I understand the uncertainty behind Byung-ho Park but who do you all rank him so low? With an every day job do you not think he could compare to at least Carlos Santana for fantasy purposes?
He may be at the Santana level, he could also be at the Pedro Alvarez level. I split the difference.
Does he have an every day job? I don’t see it. He’s going to start as a 4 days a week guy in a three position rotation with Mauer, Sano, and Plouffe.
Why?*
Would you rather take a chance there then with Lind in Seattle?
Good question. I’d like to hear others thoughts on this ? I like lind in Seattle.
Much better than SS. Really no arguements, maybe bump Moreland Up a few spots he hit LHP pretty well last year. Bump Myers a spot or three, I’d rather take a chance on his health than some of the meh people around 20. CJ Cron is interesting as a deeper sleeper along with Logan Morrison.
I am interested in peoples thoughts on Hosmer. He seems like a huge breakout candidate to me but the overall fantasy community seems low on him.
He hits too many ground balls. Until he starts lifting the ball more often, he’s unlikely to get much better than he already is.
I thought he already did the breakout thing? What more could he possibly do?
More of everything? So you think what he did last year is the best he can do?
To turn your question around, why are you expecting him to do more of everything, and how much more? Like, 300/20/100 or 320/30/120? What specifically have you seen that leads you to believe a breakout is around the corner?
I don’t see a huge breakout candidate. But in a position that is fairly set overall, I agree he’s one of the more interesting guys. I think we may be watching him pass not just Pujols and Gonzalez, but also Freeman and Ortiz and possibly Fielder. Essentially the best guy not in the top 7. It seems likely to me Freeman and Ortiz both outhomer Hosmer, but I think the average, runs, and RBIs give Hosmer the edge.
Of course, Ortiz will go out and have another 30 HR, 100 RBI season and that will be silly talk.
Hanley is playing 1B this year…where would he go on this list?
For all the rankers who placed Ortiz 10th or higher (everyone), I suggest you look at the all time leaderboard for 40 year olds. It is dismal, and substantially, substantially worse than the 39 yr old leaderboards. I don’t think Ortiz is elite enough to be one of the handful of productive 40 yr olds in the history of the game.
Plus I freaking hate the guy; yes, it’s possible to have a close call go against you, David.
With due respect, that last sentence really mitigates how seriously we can take the first couple. Seems like there is some obvious bias.
He absolutely is good enough to be an outlier. There have been 191 seasons of 500+ PA for guys 37-39 since 1947 and Ortiz’s OPS+ totals are 9th, 21st, and 23rd. Only two other guys have a 125 or better OPS+ in all of their age 37, 38, and 39 seasons: Bonds, Williams, and Ortiz. Ortiz is obviously a cut (or several) below them (who isn’t?), but I’m not sure how anyone is questioning his ability.
How many years in a row has the “This is the year David Ortiz finally shows his age and falls apart” narrative been played out in the preseason before being obliterated (like a shot from Big Papi over the Green Monster) by another .275/.350/.500 season with 30+ bombs and 100+ rbi’s? If David thinks he can compete at an elite level for one more year, I’m certainly not going to tell him he’s wrong or bet against him.
What I want to know is how Brad has Teixiera/Santana/Morales and McCann??? ahead of Pujols.
I hear you on that and that’s why I bought in last year. To be devil’s advocate, the thing is that it WILL happen and when it does, it can be swift and without warning. That’s the scary part of anyone 35+ years old. But yeah, Papi is a HOFer and has gone lower than he should for years so I’ll take a shot this year at some point.
Last year was a tale of two seasons for Ortiz; I thought Father Time had caught up with him at last and was near dropping him in late May. Through April and May he was at 222/6/18/15, below fantasy replacement level.
First half: 231/15/43/32 (80 games)
Second half: 325/22/65/41 (66 games)
Probably a top 10-15 fantasy hitter in the second half, with a RBI per game and a HR every three.
I understand Bird’s ranking being so low, but what percentage is it due to his lack of playing time this upcoming year vs him yet to prove that his cup of coffee last year wasn’t a fluke? As he is no longer rookie eligible I’m going to have to active roster him which obviously isn’t that great this year. Where could you see him falling into this list next year?
On a similar note, why are most of the rankings low on Teixeira? Is it age-related decline, injury worry, or both?
I ask because every year I seem to sucker myself into thinking he’ll be a good late-round 1B. He actually did OK last year while playing, but it’s been ugly since 2011 other than that.
I see several people questioning whether Ortiz belongs as high on the list as he’s ranked, but the player I feel has no business in the top 10 anymore is Prince Fielder. He was hurt in 2014 but still managed to step into the box 1,583 times in 2013 – 2015. When evaluating a player for a trade or a FA signing, looking back at a player’s production over the past three years is fairly common. It also shows whether the player is still climbing, has plateaued or has begun his decline years. Fielder’s fWAR for 2013-15 totals 3.6. In 2010-2012 his fWAR totaled 12.2. In 2007 – 2009 it was 11.9.
Fielder is paid to hit the long ball which he’s done once every 31.04 PA’s over the past three years. In 2010 – 2012 Fielder managed a HR every 20.96 PA’s. In 2007 – 10 Fielder mashed a HR every 16.11 PA’s. Entering his age 32 season Fielder’s most definitely in decline, as his best seasons are in the rear view mirror. There’s no way I’d include him among the top 10 1B today.
In the 2nd paragraph it should read in 2007-2009 Fielder mashed a HR every 16.11 PA’s.
Pujols, Gonzalez, Ortiz, Encarnacion, Votto, Cabrera, Morales and Martinez are all 32 or older as well. First basemen are old. Deal with it.
Where do you value Votto in a 6×6 roto with obp and slugging compared to a 5×5 w/ avg?
Can’t figure out why most everyone is so low of Paulsen? I get that the power isn’t good for a 1B, but he’s gonna collect 450+ ab’s and play half his games in coors field.
Why did Brad break so strongly from the pack on Trumbo? Everyone else is 15-20 while he’s at 35.
i dunno….duda is almost a lock for 30 hr, and good obp (if u r in obp league)
he will bat cleanup and should knock in 90 to 100 rbis…and now with Cespedes, and a little luck with Wright…he could score more Runs….i am bumping him up to 8 to 9 on my list. he is also hitting lefties better…or at least shown that he can do better.
in a good year…maybe even 35 hrs….
I’m also a big fan of Duda, and would most certainly have ranked him higher in an OBP league. Though when he slumps, it’s usually pretty dire, making him an either super frustrating or a dominant force in a head-to-head league.