Reviewing Steamer and I: Jose Abreu

For the first time this year, I decided to compare my Pod Projections to Steamer and discuss the players we disagreed on most. Of the hitters we both projected, it was clear I was much more optimistic than Steamer on the whole. However, for Jose Abreu I was actually significantly more pessimistic.

In the review of this series, I will be including my original Pod Projection, and Steamer counting stat projections extrapolated over the same number of plate appearances that I had projected. However, I included Steamer’s actual PA projection in that column. Also included are the player’s 2015 stats, plus the counting stats extrapolated over the number of PA I projected.

Jose Abreu was a difficult man to project this season. He posted some incredible numbers in Cuba, but there was no consensus on how well he would be able to hit Major League pitching. In his rookie campaign, he quieted his doubters with an exclamation point. But when anyone enjoys a performance like that, the knee-jerk reaction should always be to expect at least some regression the following year. And that’s what both Steamer and I were projecting, though to somewhat different degrees. But the bottom line is that nobody really knew what Abreu would do this year since we had such a limited body of work with which to evaluate his future. So, all projection systems were essentially guessing on Abreu in 2015.

Steamer was marginally more bullish than I on three primary drivers of overall offensive performance — walk and strikeout rates and isolated slugging percentage (ISO). The system expected Abreu to walk a bit more often, strike out slightly less and hit for greater power than I did.

With respect to the walk rate, both of our systems projected an increase from 2014. That didn’t happen, as Abreu’s walk rate plunged to an unacceptable level. Oddly, he actually swung less frequently than last year. Less swinging usually means more walks, and possibly more strikeouts. More likely is that his walk rate was flukily high last year and given his propensity to swing, probably should have been lower to begin with. My walk rate projection was closer simply because I forecasted less of an increase than Steamer.

I worried that Abreu’s inflated SwStk% in 2014 would result in a higher strikeout rate this year. Instead, he cut down on his swings and misses, but since he also swung less, his strikeout rate ended up essentially the same. Give Steamer credit for guessing correctly there, though I don’t believe the system incorporates plate discipline data into its projections.

The biggest miss for both Steamer and I was on Abreu’s power. In Cuba, he demonstrated mammoth power, which suggested that his 2014 output wasn’t all that fluky. I was rather surprised that Steamer projected barely any regression in Abreu’s ISO, forecasting just a .003 loss. I was more bearish and proved closer, but was still far too bullish. I was pretty darn close on the doubles projection and I expressed my surprise about Steamer’s pessimism on Abreu’s doubles rate. But it was the home run projection we cared most about.

In 2014, Abreu supported his league leading HR/FB rate by posting a batted ball distance of 305 feet, which ranked fifth in baseball. This year, his distance actually increased by about two and a half feet, yet his HR/FB rate fell by more than 25%! His Pull% did drop, which could have an adverse effect on HR/FB rate, but it did so by a minor amount. Surely it seems excessive for such a HR/FB rate decline, but it is probably due to being a bit fortunate last year and perhaps being a bit unlucky this year. His true talent may lie in that low 20% range, where his current career mark now stands.

On the whole, Abreu’s wOBA ended up closer to my estimate, though neither system was really very close, so it’s hard to tally this as any sort of win. Abreu should come cheaper this year than he did last year and I think he’ll perform a bit better. One obvious avenue for upside is his fly ball rate. He has sat in the 31% to 32% range in his first two years, which is pretty low for a hitter with immense power. A jump there could allow Abreu to flirt with the 40 homer plateau.