Four Dynasty First Base Targets

First base prospects are probably the easiest to analyze for fantasy and dynasty purposes. At other positions, particularly up the middle, we’re left to guess future production. Some guys grow, some just adjust well to major league pitcher (Joe Panik), and others linger for years before flashing upside (Zack Cozart). Unlike those skilled positions, a player does not become a first base prospect if he’s not already demonstrating serious talent at the plate.

With that in mind, let’s talk about my four favorite first base prospects. Three of these guys are adjacent to the majors which means they’re owned in any self-respecting dynasty league. This article isn’t about guys you can find for free, it’s meant to highlight the biggest up-and-coming names at the position.

1. Byung-ho Park, 29 (KBO)
Stats: 537 PA, .348/.439/.731, 47 HR, 9 SB, 25.3% K rate, 12.3% BB rate

The Nexen Heroes are set to post Park next Monday. After the widely acclaimed success of Jung-ho Kang, we can expect teams to invest more confidently in Park. Kang cost the Pirates just $17 million in guaranteed money for four years – $5 million of which covered his posting fee. I expect Park to cost at least $30 million between posting fee and guaranteed salary.

Kang’s success doesn’t automatically mean that Park will transition well. The Pirates are a savvy organization. They didn’t simply throw Kang into the fire. He began the season in a time share with Jordy Mercer and Josh Harrison. The reduced role may have helped him adjust to major league talent and culture shock. Park may benefit from a similar treatment.

Park is coming off three consecutive 1.000 OPS seasons. He’s exceeded a 1.100 OPS over the last two years while bashing 105 home runs (1,193 PA). Pretty gaudy numbers, no? Unfortunately, it’s not this simple. Eric Thames, who you may recall as a backup outfielder in 2011 and 2012, posted a 1.288 OPS and 47 home runs in the KBO last season. Of course, I always thought Thames was a small adjustment away from league average production. Maybe he simply got better while in Korea.

Strikeout rate may decide Park’s value in the majors. He fanned in 25 percent of plate appearances. Usually, strikeout rate increases as players move to harder leagues. Some guys maintain their past whiff rates. If Park doesn’t give away more outs, he should be a valuable middle-of-the-order weapon.

His owner may look to sell high once a team signs Park. He’s a high risk, high reward target.

2. Josh Bell, 23 (PIT, AAA)
Stats: 132 PA, .355/.447/.509, 2 HR, 2 SB, 11.4% K rate, 14.4% BB rate

Bell is an unusual first base prospect. With another organization, he’d still be manning the outfield. Alas, the Pirates have a ridiculous outfield alignment. Rather than wait for an injury, they’ve moved Bell to a perennial problem area for the organization.

Bell, a switch-hitter, controls the strike zone. However, he doesn’t possess the type of power usually associated with the position. At least in his early career, he profiles as somebody who might pop 10 home runs with 10 stolen bases. Due to his high OBP and low strikeout approach in the minors, Bell could fit as a leadoff hitter similar to Matt Carpenter (the pre-2015 iteration). That would make him unique among first basemen, but it doesn’t take away from his overall value.

See if you can find an owner who’s overly concerned about his low home run totals.

3. A.J. Reed, 22 (HOU, AA)
Stats: 218 PA, .340/413/.590, 11 HR, 20.6% K rate, 11.5% BB rate

Reed may be my favorite first base prospect. He’s a classic bomber. He totaled 34 home runs between High-A and Double-A. A .384 BABIP on the season overstates his potential in the majors, but it’s still a positive sign. A high minor league BABIP can denote that a player has mastered a level.

Incumbent first baseman Chris Carter is frustratingly inconsistent at the plate. Meanwhile, Jon Singleton has twice stumbled upon reaching the majors. Reed now appears to be the first baseman of the future in Houston.

While Park and Bell could begin the 2016 season in the majors, Reed is almost certainly ticketed for a couple months in the minors. Even if Carter is shipped elsewhere, I expect Houston to give Singleton one more opportunity to rebuild trade value. They also may need to find early playing time for Jed Lowrie and Luis Valbuena. Reed looks like a classic cleanup hitter with 40 home run and 100 RBI upside. Of course, we should temper expectations until we see him succeed in the majors.

If you want to acquire Reed, you’ll have to buy high. It may well be worth it.

4. Dominic Smith, 20 (NYM, A+)
Stats: 497 PA, .305/.354/.417, 6 HR, 2 SB, 15.1% K rate, 7.0% BB rate

Unlike the others, Smith almost certainly won’t reach the majors in 2016. He may not even get a taste in 2017. The Florida State League MVP hit just six home runs during the regular season. The FSL is a notoriously pitcher friendly league. He did pop 33 doubles which hints at latent power potential.

Kiley McDaniel says the left-handed hitter is often compared to Adrian Gonzalez. It’s not a perfect comparison – AGon hit 17 home runs at Double-A in his age 20 season. Smith still has to tap into his power more consistently. After earning the MVP award, I hope to see him open the season at Double-A. He may need an opportunity to adjust to the level, but he’ll also have a better chance to pass the 10 home run barrier.

If Smith continues to progress as expected, he could eventually grow into a top five prospect. Beware, prospects often plateau unexpectedly. This seems especially true for players with conflicting statistics and scouting reports.

Smith is a classic sneaky “throw-in” target. His owner may view him as fungible due since he’s a couple years from the majors and has yet to show game power.