Welcome to another installment of fastball velocity risers and fallers. For reference, here are a few articles that explain both the process and the importance of increased or decreased velocity when predicting future success:

• Using Game-By-Game Fastball Velocity to Influence SP Sit/Start Decisions by Lucas Kelly
• MLB pitching models should incorporate recency, giving us an intriguing ranks update by Eno Sarris
• Baseball’s ‘Hot Hand’ Is Real by Rob Arthur and Greg Matthews

The data for this article reflects games played through June 19th and only displays Statcast’s four-seam fastball (FF) velocity. 

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There isn’t a ton to choose from outside of the obvious starts. I’m struggling to even find some good YOLO options among the 0-x guys… hell, I’m not even SUPER confident in Wilson & Allen in their respective recommendation windows. Take it easy on Thursday!

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6/19/24

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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SURGING SP OUTLOOKS (L30 days PR)

• Hunter Brown 5th SP over L30
• Ronel Blanco 14th
• Tobias Myers 10th
• Colin Rea 18th

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American League

Angels

• Ben Joyce added a splinker.

Strickland, who has thrown sinkers in previous years, learned this grip from Angels pitching strategist Bill Hezel. It’s more like a one-seam sinker as opposed to the conventional two-seamer, and as a result, Strickland’s sinker is averaging about seven more inches of vertical break this season compared with 2022 (he did not appear in the Majors in ’23).

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Joyce has not shied away from using his splinker in game action. He estimated that he threw it on 10 of his 27 pitches on Friday. He went heavy on it again as the opener on Sunday, throwing it for around 20 of his 42 pitches.

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Although Joyce’s fastball averages a tick under 101 mph, it’s been hittable. So has his upper-80s slider. The splinker comes in at a third speed — the mid-to-high 90s — and moves differently due to its lower spin rate. And because the release point for all three is similar, it’s more difficult to identify which pitch is leaving Joyce’s hand.

This pitch is a one-of-one. While Johan Duran’s splinker is the closest comp, Joyce throws slower and with more spin. Read the rest of this entry »

RIP to one of the greatest players and people in baseball history:

Beautiful words about a man that was truly larger than life. Thanks @clintonyates 🙏🏾pic.twitter.com/1xVrq2Wg3N

— Xavier Scruggs (@Xavier_Scruggs) June 19, 2024

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OK Jonathan Cannon, I wasn’t familiar with your game! He came an out shy of the shutout v. HOU, allowing just 7 hits and a walk with 4 Ks. Pablo López now has to rally at OAK this weekend after 4 IP/5 ER v. TBR. Shockingly Aaron Civale didn’t allow any HRs, but it didn’t drive any success as he couldn’t finish 4 IP. I sold Bailey Falter a bit short after back-to-back 4 IP outings. I didn’t give him enough credit for the excellent May (2.23 ERA in 5 starts), especially with a good matchup at home. With modest Ks, he will always need the contact to find gloves, but he’s gaining some deep league streamer viability.

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This is grand larceny:

Austin Martin's home run robbery lands him the @Chevrolet Electric Play of the Week! 😮 pic.twitter.com/VPlkhZ8nMo

— MLB (@MLB) June 17, 2024

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Some guys hoping to establish themselves as bankable starters (Irvin, Marsh, Myers, Harris) while others like Miller, King, and Steele are hoping to regain the full trust of fantasy managers.

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6/17/24

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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• @sporer – Host
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HOLD OR FOLD

• Ryan Jeffers 98%
• Rhys Hoskins 100%
• Jorge Polanco 86%

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We’re getting close to 50% completion of the 2024 season, so I thought the time was right for a midseason update to my projections-based prospect ranks. You can find more methodological detail, along with the preseason lists here (bats) and here (arms).

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