Here is today’s chat transcript:
Read the rest of this entry »

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

JUMP TO 2-START CHART

Read the rest of this entry »

7:31	Jeff Zimmerman:

Read the rest of this entry »

Dennis Lee-Imagn Images

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Batters

Ramón Laureano: Finally, he’s over the 40% so I don’t have put him on the top of the rankings again next week.

Andrew Vaughn: Continues to dominate with the Brewers while batting .386/.448/.772 with 6 HR in 67 PA.

Isaac Collins: A pleasant surprise with 6 HR, 12 SB, and .274 AVG in 279 PA.

Warming Bernabel: He never stops. Right now, he’s batting .500/.517/1.036 with a .500 BABIP and 30% HR/FB. Add to see if it’s real, but be ready to move on in a week or two once it all falls apart.

Jakob Marsee: Just promoted to the majors while batting .246/.379/.438 with 14 HR and 57 SB in AAA.

Alex Freeland: Started in three straight games (more than I expected). Balanced production in AAA (.253/.377/.421, 12 HR, 17 SB) and a top add if he continues to play.

Angel Martínez: Steady contributor (9 HR, 6 SB, .241 AVG) qualified at two positions (2B, OF).

Lenyn Sosa: Providing power (11 HR) and batting average (.282 AVG) while qualified at two positions (2B, 3B).

Jesús Sánchez: I’m not sure if he’ll be platooned, but he has started both games (vs RHP) while batting second or third in the order. Sanchez with 10 HR, 9 SB, and .259 AVG.

Kyle Manzardo: Strong-side platoon bat with 24 HR.

Mickey Moniak: Solid platoon bat (16 HR, 5 SB, .270) who needs to be in fantasy lineups when playing.

Colson Montgomery: Compared to AAA, his swinging-strike rate is up (13% to 17%), but his strikeouts are down (33% to 25%). He does have 6 HR in 85 PA.

Harrison Bader: He’ll start in a platoon with 12 HR and 10 SB so far this season.

Mike Tauchman: Started in three of the five games against a lefty. Hitting for average (.291 AVG) and power (7 HR).

Nathan Lukes: Solid strong-side platoon bat with 9 HR in 273 PA.

Daulton Varsho: Off the IL and should be getting most of the centerfield reps. Before going on the IL, he hit 8 HR but with just a .200 AVG (32% K%).

Joey Loperfido: Rarely starts against lefties but is riding a .475 BABIP to .386/.435/.579. He’s making more contact this year (68% to 77%). I’d prefer Lukes right now, but Loperfido is interesting.

Ryan Mountcastle: Continues to destroy AAA pitching (.391/.440/.783) and should return to the majors any day now.

Ronny Mauricio: Not a zero at the plate (112 wRC+) and only starting against righties (.256 OPS vs LHP, .908 OPS vs RHP).

Josh Jung: Something is constantly wrong with Jung (calf right now). His limited production is only worth the hassle in the deepest of leagues.

Tyler O’Neill: Decent power source (7 HR in 159 PA) if playing. Has never reached over 550 PA in a season.

Heriberto Hernandez: Should have taken over the centerfield role, but Jakob Marsee’s promotion quelled that dream.

Coby Mayo: Since the trade deadline, started twice at first base. He’s not contributing in any fantasy facet. Ignore Mayo and add someone who is hitting.

Ke’Bryan Hayes: The league’s worst qualified batter (57 wRC+). Unless your league counts defense, ignore.

Spencer Horwitz: Strong-side platoon bat who is not contributing to any fantasy category.

Tyler Locklear: Supposed to be the starting first baseman for the Diamondbacks. Over two seasons in the majors, he has a 42% K%. Ignore until he starts hitting.

Catchers

Francisco Alvarez: Since coming back from the minors, he is batting .280/.400/.560.

Batting Prospects

Jordan Lawlar: In AAA, the 23-year-old shortstop has hit .319/.410/.583 with 10 HR and 18 SB in 250 PA.

Spencer Jones: Across two minor league levels, the 24-year-old outfielder has hit .312/.407/.688 with 29 HR and 19 SB.

Dylan Beavers: In AAA, the 23-year-old outfielder has hit .304/.414/.502 with 14 HR and 22 SB.

Starting Pitchers

J.T. Ginn: Sorry, I missed him last week, but he’s a must-add and needs to be the guy at 57% rostered instead of Patrick Corbin. A 9.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and 54% GB% are ace-like numbers.

Joey Wentz: With Atlanta, he has a 1.50 ERA (3.09 xFIP), 10.5 K/9, and 0.72 WHIP. Two reasons for the turnaround. First, the lower walk rate will always help. Second, he reworked his cutter since joining the Braves.

About a month ago, he said he tweaked the grip on his best pitch, a cutter, and it’s been more effective. A lot more.

His resurgence as a starter has come at a time when the Braves are desperate to fill spots in their injury-riddled starting rotation. He’s nailing down one of them.

Add now to see if the results continue.

Mike Burrows: Settling in to be a solid streaming option, maybe more. He added an elite sinker over his last two starts (80 botStf, 127 Stuff+). Solid add in all leagues.

Luis Severino: On a four-game stretch with a 2.49 ERA, 3.21 xFIP, 10.4 K/9, and 1.15 WHIP. The only reason for the strikeout increase is from gaining ~1 mph on his fastball.

Frankie Montas: He’s getting hit around a bit (1.8 HR/9, .326 BABIP), thereby pushing up his ratios (1.45 WHIP, 5.46 ERA). Otherwise, all signs point to a 4.00 ERA streamer.

Jack Perkins: Moving to the rotation. As a starter in AAA, the 25-year-old righty had a 2.86 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 13.9 K/9. He struggled with walks (4.1 BB/9). In the majors as a reliever, he posted a 2.75 ERA (3.83 xFIP), 0.92 WHIP (3.2 BB/9), and 8.7 K/9. While he has a ton of swing-and-miss, I’m worried about him walking too many batters.

Brad Lord: Became a streamable option as he got his walks under control. Over the first two months, he posted a 3.8 BB/9. It has been a 1.9 BB/9 over the last two months. If the walks stay down, he’s pitching like a high-3.00 ERA talent.

Patrick Corbin: A streamable 4.00 ERA talent.

JP Sears: His 28% GB% has led to a 1.9 HR/9, leading to a 4.95 ERA (4.02 xFIP). Streamer until he gets the home runs in check.

Michael Soroka: All his struggles (4.87 ERA) come from not being able to get lefties out. His fantasy value will be determined by the Cubs solving that problem.

Chris Paddack: An up-and-down season with disappointing overall results (4.77 ERA, 4.48 xFIP, 1.24 WHIP, and 6.8 K/9). He’s on a hot stretch right now with a 9.5 K/9, but he’s seen similar stretches.

I’m betting on the season-long numbers to continue.

Justin Verlander: His walks (3.4 BB/9, 1.49 WHIP) are the only thing holding him back this season (4.53 ERA, 4.79 xFIP).

Charlie Morton: Now with the Tigers. The 41-year-old is productive when he keeps the walks down (2.9 BB/9 in June). The problem right now is his 4.3 BB/9 leading to 1.53 WHIP (equivalent to a 5.69 ERA).

Aaron Civale: Over his last two starts (CHC and PIT), he has a 9.8 K/9 and 0.8 BB/9. The starts coincided with throwing his curve (11% SwStr%, 56 botOver, 108 Pitching+) 10% points more. Overall, he’s not been decent, so I’d just monitor the change to see if there is a reason to buy in later.

Cal Quantrill: The 31-year-old is sort of streamable with the walks under control this year (4.2 BB/9 to 2.4 BB/9) with a 4.33 xFIP. I haven’t gotten to the point of rostering him just yet.

Carson Whisenhunt: While ranked as the Giants’ third-best prospect, the Pirates destroyed him in his debut (5 IP, 4 ER, 3 K, and 2 BB). By all accounts, his changeup is his best pitch, but no starter is successful with a 92-mph fastball and elite change. They don’t exist, and I’m not betting on Whisenhunt to be the first.

Ryan Bergert: While a .217 BABIP is keeping his ratios in check, his 4.5 BB/9 is well past the unrosterable level. I’ll monitor to see how his start next week goes.

Logan Evans: His 1.44 WHIP is doing as much ratio damage as a 5.16 ERA. His entire profile is below average. Steady high 4.00 ERA talent.

Kyle Hendricks He’s a solid high-4.00 ERA talent with no upside. At least he’s giving NAIA pitchers hope to make it to the majors with his 86-mph fastball.

Bailey Falter: Now with Kansas City and might lineup for two starts next week. All indicators point to him being a high-4.00 ERA talent with no pitch having a swinging-strike rate over 10%.

Troy Melton: With the additions of Paddack and Morton, Melton is moving to a relief role. Well shoot … sadly, a drop.

Rehabbing Starters

Kyle Bradish: Just 5 IP into his minor league rehab.

Cristian Javier: In 11 IP of rehab, he has 11 BB and 9 K in 10 IP so far.

Relievers: Saves-based ranks

Cade Smith: Great reliever who is the closer.

Randy Rodríguez: Great reliever who is the closer.

JoJo Romero: Average reliever who is the closer.

Keegan Akin: Average reliever who is the closer.

Kevin Ginkel: Average reliever who is the closer.

Dennis Santana: Average reliever who is the closer.

Robert Garcia: Good reliever who is the closer, but two straight bad outings (L, BS)

Calvin Faucher: Average reliever who now appears to be the closer again.

Jose Ferrer: Below-average reliever who is the closer.

Sean Newcomb: Average reliever who could be the closer.

Cole Sands: Below-average reliever who could be the closer.

Alex Vesia: Good reliever who seems to be in a closer-by-committee.

Blake Treinen: Great reliever who seems to be in a closer-by-committee.

Phil Maton: Good reliever who is the backup to a struggling closer.

Tony Santillan: Average reliever who is the backup to a struggling closer.

Hunter Gaddis: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

Garrett Whitlock: Great reliever who is the backup closer.

Yennier Cano: Average reliever who could be the backup closer.

Corbin Martin: Good reliever who is a step or two away from closing.

Griffin Jax: Good reliever who is a step or two away from closing.

Jeremiah Estrada: Great reliever who is a step or two away from closing.

Riley O’Brien: Good reliever who is a step or two away from closing.

Adrian Morejon: Good reliever who is a few steps away from closing.

Seth Halvorsen: Elbow injury, likely out for a while.

Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Hitters

Colson Montgomery (9): His .257 AVG has come out of left field after struggling to hit for average for years. The biggest surprise has been him dropping his strikeout rate from 33% to 24%. I’m not buying the lower strikeout rate since his swinging-strike rate jumped from 13.1% to 17.2%. Here are some comps to similar swinging-strike rates that point to a 30% K%.

Josh Jung (7): The 27-year-old came off the IL this past Monday (July 21st), so his adds were a week behind. He’s not lived up to his prospect hype and is not a fantasy difference maker (10 HR, 4 SB, .249 AVG). At least he’s healthy … for now.

Gabriel Arias (6): While not much of a fantasy contributor (.234/.294/.381, 7 HR, 4 SB), he is off the IL and back to playing every day.

Joc Pederson (6): Pederson crushes right-handed pitching. Nothing more. One concern is that all his power metrics are at multi-year lows. Maybe bench him for a week or two as he builds up his strength (broken hand).

Warming Bernabel (6): The 23-year-old third baseman is on a Kyren Paris-like hot start. In the majors so far, Bernabel is batting .389/.421/.833 with 2 HR in 19 PA. In AAA, he hit .301/.356/.450 with 8 HR and 5 SB. While those numbers look great, it’s just a 90 wRC+ (10% worse than the average AAA batter) once run environment is taken into account.

His number one trait is his ability to put the ball in play with a just a 12% K% in AAA and a 5% K% so far in the majors. He doesn’t have much power. His AAA 84.2 avgEV ranks 862nd among 972 batters in AAA. He pulled both his home runs right down the line.

For now, he’s an add and monitor.

Ryan Mountcastle (5): Some reports had Mountcastle possibly coming off the IL this week, but it seems to be another week for him.

#Orioles first baseman Ryan Mountcastle (hamstring) is eligible to return from IL tomorrow, but he’s unlikely to be back until series in Philadelphia next week

— Jake Rill (@JakeDRill) July 29, 2025

He’s been crushing AAA so far (253 wRC+) with good EV numbers (97 mph avgEV, 112 maxEV). Once he returns, playing time will not be an issue with some of his teammates traded away.

Tommy Pham (5): The Pham demand comes from his weekend games in Colorado. He’s been playing (starting regularly since July 1st) and hitting (.302/.373/.488 in June) for weeks, but no one seemed to care. He’s not doing anything new. It’s just one of the hot stretches he’ll go on. Ed. note: He did also get a new contact Rx that helped his vision which is particularly important as he does have a degenerative eye issue called keratoconus. 

Coby Mayo (5): With several teammates likely to get traded (did happen), managers hoped Mayo (.225/.307/.382, 3 HR, 1 SB) would get more playing time. I’m just not sure Mayo is a good baseball player.

Starters

Troy Melton (11): So a 10.80 ERA can be ignored? While Melton gave up a ton of hits in his debut against the Pirates, he did strike out seven of them while walking two (3.28 xFIP). And on Monday, he went 7 IP with 5 K, 0 BB, and 0 ER over 7 IP (3.36 xFIP). I had the unknown ranked as my fourth-highest free agent starter this past weekend, and that might have been too low.

He’s example #48452 on why to ignore ERA when evaluating pitchers. Hell, just look at his AAA numbers: 2.72 ERA, 2.24 xFIP, 1.1b WHIP, 12.1 K/9. As for an arsenal, he has a 97-mph fastball (11% SwStr%), slider (23% SwStr%), sinker (75% GB%), cutter, curve, and splitter (14% SwStr%). Here are how the pitches did in AAA:

Ed. note: He did get moved to the bullpen after the deadline moves so now he’s the 6th SP. 

J.T. Ginn (9): Time to keep it simple with Ginn. His stats are

9.6 K/9
2.1 BB/9
54% GB%

Pitchers who are better in all three categories this year:

None

The closest comp is Cristopher Sánchez (9.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 58% GB%). By just continuing to pitch like he has so far, Ginn will be comparable to the top pitchers in the game.

Luis Severino (6): Severino is in the middle of a nice stretch to add as a streamer. This week he faced Seattle (5 IP, 6 K, 2 BB, 1 ER, 5 H) with a two-step lineup up next week at Washington and Baltimore.

Besides the decent stream, he has been better in July with a 3.81 ERA (3.42 xFIP) compared to a 5.09 ERA (4.76 xFIP) before that. The improvement is from more strikeouts and groundballs.

Stat: April to June, July
K%: 15%, 24%
FBv: 95.8, 96.8
Zone%: 54%, 56%
GB%: 39%, 51%

The only reasons I could find for the strikeout jump are increased velocity and more pitches in the strike zone. The more I write, the more I’m getting pissed that I didn’t emphasize him more this past weekend.

Justin Verlander (6): This add is almost entirely based on Verlander’s matchup against the Pirates this week (5 IP, 1 ER, 7 K, 1 BB) and two-step next week against the Pirates and Nationals.

He is showing no signs of improving, so I suspect Verlander will be dropped after the two-start week.

Joey Wentz (5): Like Verlander, Wentz was added for a decent two-start week. This week, he gets Kansas City (6 IP, 7 K, 0 ER, 3 BB) with two starts next week against the Brewers and Marlins.

Wentz is a career 5.59 ERA (4.74 xFIP) with no signs of improving this year (5.45 ERA, 4.47 xFIP). He’s been dropped by two other teams before joining the Braves. In 18 IP since joining the Braves, he has a 3.09 xFIP. With the Pirates, it was a 4.56 xFIP. A 7.95 xFIP with the Twins. The improvement he made was throwing more strikes.

Team: Ball%
PIT: 37%
MIN: 41%
ATL: 34%

A 34% Ball% usually points to a high-3.00 ERA talent. Not great, but way better than his previous results.

Relievers

Seranthony Domínguez (9): These adds coincided with Félix Bautista going on the IL, but all reports had the Orioles trading away Dominguez. And they did. Drop.

Phil Maton (5): Rumors had Ryan Helsley on the move, so fantasy managers bet Maton would take over the closer’s duties. Again, all reports also had Maton on the move. Maton is now a drop.

Blake Treinen (5): The Dodgers didn’t have a closer, and Treinen was coming off the IL. This add was perfect for those looking to add Saves.

Garrett Whitlock (5): On Sunday, Aroldis Chapman left with a back issue, so managers looked to add his replacement.

Link to NL Edition

Jeff will handle the NL and I’ll be running the AL. We’ll be analyzing the big moves throughout the Trade Deadline period and updating these posts through August 1st (the day after the deadline in case we Thursday brings a ton of action we need some time to sort out!) the weekend.

Updates:

• 7/26: Josh Naylor, Ryan McMahon
• 7/28: Chris Paddack, Danny Jansen
• 7/29: Seranthony Domínguez
• 7/30: Jhoan Duran fallout, Mick Abel
• 7/31 AM: Eugenio Suárez, Ramón Urías, Shane Bieber, lots of RPs
• 7/31 PM: Mason Miller, JP Sears, Brock Stewart, Ramón Laureano, Ryan O’Hearn
• 8/1: Jesús Sánchez, Carlos Correa, Zack Littell, David Bednar, Camilo Doval, Adrian Houser, Charlie Morton, Twins fallout: Taj Bradley–James Outman–Alan Roden, José Caballero, Dustin May, Orioles fallout, Miguel Andujar, Jake Bird

I’ll have my annual Trade Deadline Show with Nick Pollack starting at 3PM CT! My write-ups on today’s trades and their potential fantasy fallout will be sparse until tonight/tomorrow AM. With so many moving pieces, I just don’t want to get caught doing some through write up on some potential winners/losers from a trade only for another trade to completely upend that commentary. (7/31)

I’m updating throughout the day on Friday and into the weekend as things shake out. Please feel free to ask about specific players in the comments. I’m putting together a Winners/Losers kind of board but that won’t be out until the weekend because I want at least one slate of lineups to see how some things shake out. (8/1)

—

American League

Angels

Traded for Andrew Chafin (LHP) and Luis Garcia (RHP) from the Nats.

I wonder if this is a one foot in, one foot out situation where they backfilled the bullpen so they can trade Kenley and still be on the fringes of contention. They are only 4 games back in the wildcard as their high-powered offense — I’m not joking, they’re 4th in HRs — has given them juice. (7/31)

Traded for Oswald Peraza (INF) from the Yankees. 

The 25-year-old utility infielder brings some depth to the Angels. The one-time top prospect has struggled massively this year, posting a 26 wRC+ in 170 PA. He’ll be on their bench and likely bounce around the diamond giving everyone a day off. (8/1)

Astros

Traded Twine Palmer (RHP) to Orioles for Ramón Urías (INF). 

Twine Palmer is an amazing name! I’m watching Twin Peaks for the first time, so my brain dropped the “e” and saw Twin Palmer  😂

Urías jumps right into the 3B spot (until they get Correa later today 😎) with Isaac Paredes out for a substantial period of time. In fact, literally as I write this there is an update on MLB Central that Paredes is out for 6-7 mos. with the torn hamstring! This ends being a bat-for-glove trade as Urías brings an 89 wRC+, compared to Paredes’ 133, but Urías is a former Gold Glove winner who can play all over the infield and morph into a super-utility guy if they do in fact get someone like Correa to replace Paredes’ bat. (7/31)

Traded Ryan Gusto (RHP), Chase Jaworsky (INF), and Esmil Valencia (OF) to the Marlins for Jesús Sánchez (OF). 

I love this move for Houston as a long-time fan of Sánchez. He is a strong-side platoon outfielder who made the most of being in Miami, posting a career .812 OPS at LoanDepot Park (jeezus, that name suuucks, lol). I was shocked to learn that Miami’s home park is pretty solid for lefties, posting a 103 Park Factor the last 3 seasons which is tied for 3rd-best with Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Philadelphia, trailing only Colorado (112) and Boston (108). Houston’s park is tied with a cluster at 101, though it does hold a 9-point edge in HR factor over Miami. That’s not enough to move the needle and expect some sort of surge from Sánchez, but I am eager to see him in the midst of a playoff race. Miami was playing much better of late as an offensive unit, but this is still an undisputed lineup upgrade for him. I’d be looking to pickup Sánchez where available (I imagine he’s not universally rostered in 10s and 12s) in shallower mixed leagues and I think he has real impact potential in AL-Only leagues.

Losing Gusto does cut into their pitching depth a bit as he’d been a solid swingman for them this year. Three Duds account for 20 of his 47 ER this year meaning he’s been mostly good across his 24 outings, including four starts with at least a 60 Game Score (anything 60 and above on Game Score is an unquestionably strong start). George Costanza Jason Alexander is currently penciled into the 5th role right now, though Spencer Arrighetti is on rehab right now. (8/1)

Traded cold hard cash to the Twins for Carlos Correa (*3B*)!

Obviously, Correa is still just a SS for our purposes in fantasy, but he’s agreed to play 3B and will add that eligibility in a couple weeks. The Correa reunion is a fun one. It was part of a maaaassive sell-off in Minnesota and comes at a perfect time for Houston as they were looking for impact bats, but short of prospect capital to trade for top end bats. With Sánchez and Correa, they had an amazing day deepening their lineup, especially with Jeremy Pena slated to return today, too. Correa’s only been a league average-ish bat this year (97 wRC+), but if he can stay healthy I wouldn’t be surprised to see him more in the 115-120 wRC+ range the rest of the way. Non-prospect Matt Mikulski (26 y/o in A+) was also sent to Minnesota. (8/1)

Athletics

Traded Mason Miller (RHP) and JP Sears (LHP) to Padres for Leo DeVries (SS) and a prospect package.

This is obviously a massive deal, but it doesn’t really create any actionable fallout for the A’s. They’ll almost assuredly split their remaining SVs which won’t be plentiful and Sears himself was barely streamable so a replacement isn’t going to be all that appealing. (7/31)

I will say that if San Diego can somehow help Sears with his homers, there is some upside. I liked him as a prospect, but his career 1.6 HR9 and 1.9 mark this year make him a remarkably scary stream in even the best of situations. (8/1)

Traded Miguel Andujar (4C) to Reds for Kenya Huggins (RHP). 

Andujar appeared in all four corners for the Athletics this year (1B/3B/LF/RF), spending the bulk of his time at 3B and LF, posting a solid .298/.329/.436 line and 107 wRC+. His playing time evaporates with this move, though, as he’ll likely be limited to some starts versus lefties unless injury opens a spot somehow. He can safely be cut anywhere he was being rostered. (8/1)

Blue Jays

Traded Juaron Watts-Brown (RHP) to Orioles for Seranthony Dominguez (RHP). 

Dominguez was traded in the middle of a doubleheader between the Jays and Os which is just amazing. I already love when a guy traded within a series, but in the middle of a DH is next level! Dominguez adds depth to the pen, strengthening the bridge to Jeff Hoffman. Dominguez has been able work around a 14% BB so far this year (3.09 ERA/1.28 WHIP) as he’s difficult to square up (6.6 H/9) and has cut his home run rate drastically from 1.6 the last two seasons to just 0.8 this year. There’s no fantasy relevance here unless something happens to Hoffman. (7/29)

Traded Khal Stephen (RHP) to Guardians for Shane Bieber (RHP).

Huge name but it’s hard to say how impactful he will be this year. He’s returning from TJ and currently 4 starts into his rehab — he’s looked fantastic, but it’s been at RK/A+/AA and is all of 12 IP so far — so they are probably hoping he can give them some innings for final 5-6 weeks of the season and into October, but he’s a maaaaassive wildcard. He’s already been getting stashed in some formats and this trade will only add to the interest.

Stephen ranked 17th in our Jays list back in April. The 2024 2nd rounder has enjoyed a strong pro debut, primarily at A/A+ and he had just made his AA debut prior to the trade. He would almost assuredly move up in a re-rank after his 23% K-BB in 92 IP and landed 5th on MLB.com’s updated list prior to the trade. (7/31)

Small moves with little fantasy impact right now:

• Out: Will Wagner and Alan Roden
• In: Louie Varland (an arm I still like!), Ty France (veteran bench bat), and Brandon Valenzuela (MiLB catching depth)

Read the rest of this entry »

Note: I’m setting my NFBC lineups and will come back to try to find any team reports on these players. I’ll keep updating the article over the weekend as news and lineups come out. The final update will be on Monday.

Link to AL Edition

Updates:

• 7/26: Josh Naylor, Ryan McMahon, David Robertson
• 7/28: Nick Fortes, Danny Jansen
• 7/30: Tyler Kinley, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Ryan Helsley, Jhoan Duran
• 7/31: Michael Soroka, Eugenio Suarez, Tyler Locklear, Zack Littell
• 7/31: Mason Miller, JP Sears, Brock Stewart, Kyle Finnegan
• 7/31: Harrison Bader, Freddy Fermin, David Bednar
• 7/31: Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Laureano, Cedric Mullins, and Jesús Sánchez
• 7/31: Merrill Kelly, Bailey Falter, Willi Castro
• 7/31: Nestor Cortes, Shelby Miller, Dustin May
• 8/1: Phil Maton, Mike Yastrzemski , Alex Call , Camilo Doval
• 8/1: First mover rankings.
• 8/4: Mason Miller misread,

Movers for 2025 only (players still in the National League)

Up (biggest movers first)

1. Dennis Santana (PIT closer)
2. JoJo Romero (STL closer)
3. Randy Rodríguez (SFG closer)
4. Jakob Marsee (MIA OF replacement)
5. Jose A. Ferrer (WSN closer, like it matters)
6. Anthony DeSclafani (ARI, likely in the rotation)
7. Jordan Lawlar (ARI, left side of IF replacement)
8. Liover Peguero (PIT, SS replacement)
9. Tyler Locklear (ARI 1B replacement)
10. Robert Hassell III (WSN, OF replacement) 8/4 Update
11. Grant McCray (SFG OF platoon bat) 8/4 Update
12. Jared Triolo (PIT 3B replacement) 8/4 Update
13. Heriberto Hernandez (MIA, increased OF playing time)
14. Liam Hicks (MIA, increased C playing time)
15. Daylen Lile (WSN, increased playing time)
16. Orlando Arcia (COL, increased playing time)
17. Tristin English (ARI 1B replacement, struggling in majors)
18. Ryan Gusto (MIA, better chance to make the rotation)
19. WSN rotation candidate, unknown and likely irrelevant
20. PIT rotation candidate, unknown and likely irrelevant
21. Freddy Fermin (SDP, possible uptick in playing time)
22. Jhoan Duran (PHI, better team context)
23. Logan Henderson (MIL, closer to the MLB rotation)
24. Brock Stewart (LAD, closer candidate)
25. Ryan Walker (SFG, closer candidate)
26. Tyler Kinley (ATL, closer candidate)
27. Ryan O’Hearn (SDP, slight team context upgrade)
28. Ramón Laureano (SDP, slight team context upgrade)
29. Kevin Ginkel (better hold of the closer’s role)

Down (biggest movers first)

1. Mason Miller (lose of closer’s role) 8/4 Update
2. Willi Castro (CHC, bench bat)
3. Someone(s) on the Mets (McNeil, Vientos, Baty): At first glance, looks to be Baty 8/4 Update
4. Shelby Miller (MIL, further away from closing)
5. Danny Jansen (MIL, second catcher)
6. Ben Brown (CHC, further away from starting)
7. Michael Soroka (CHC, bullpen move likely)
8. David Robertson (PHI, no chance of closing)
9. Orion Kerkering (PHI, no chance of closing)
10. JP Sears (SDP, possible future bullpen move)
11. Gavin Sheets (SDP, decrease in playing time)
12. Martín Maldonado (SDP, decreased playing time)
13. Elias Díaz (SDP, decrease playing time)
14. Johan Rojas (PHI, bench bat)
15. Alex Vesia (LAD, more bullpen competition)
16. Blake Treinen (LAD, more bullpen competition)
17. Ke’Bryan Hayes (CIN, bat could struggle and get benched)
18. Zack Littell (CIN, team context)

Braves

Traded Austin Smith (RP) to the Rockies for Tyler Kinley (RP)

None of the bullpen got traded and in his first appearance with the Braves, Kinley set up Raisel Iglesias. (8/4)

Brewers

Traded Nestor Cortes to San Diego for Brandon Lockridge and Jorge Quintana

With Cortes out of the way, Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick should be the next starters to use if someone is hurt or demoted.

One note on Brandon Lockridge (.232/.278/.273, 0 HR, 9 SB), he started in two of three games since the trade with  Sal Frelick sitting. Someone(s) will need to head to the bench when Jackson Chourio comes off the IL.  (8/4)

Traded Jadher Areinamo (SS) to the Rays for Danny Jansen (C)

Areinamo is in High-A and a non-factor this season. As for Jansen, his fantasy value takes a major hit unless the Brewers make some changes. Jansen (.204/.314/.389, 11 HR) was starting about two-thirds of the time in Tampa, but William Contreras (.242/.342/.340, 6 HR, 5 SB) will be the regular catcher. Conteras can’t be the DH with Christian Yelich entrenched in the position. Sadly, Jansen might be a drop in all but the deepest of leagues where he’s rostered. (7/28)

Cardinals

Traded Ryan Helsley (RP) to the Mets for Jesus Baez (SS), Nate Dohm (SP), and Frank Elissalt (RP)

Traded Phil Maton (RP) to the Rangers for Skylar Hales, Mason, Molina, and international bonus pool money

With both Helsley and Maton being traded, focus on adding  JoJo Romero in leagues that count Saves. Even the team’s GM states Romero is the closer.

The Cardinals are still deciding who will take over the closer role, but president of baseball operations John Mozeliak indicated Thursday that left-hander JoJo Romero was the top candidate.

(8/3)

Cubs

Traded Ryan Gallagher and Sam Armstrong to the Twins for Willi Castro

This trade likely kills Castro’s fantasy value. Unless there is an injury (e.g. Ian Happ), there is no everyday spot for him. In the real baseball world, Castro is a huge safety value, but that doesn’t matter for the fantasy game. In three games so far, Castro started in two of them at second and third base. Maybe he’ll rotate positions, giving everyone a day off. It’s too soon to know for sure. (8/4)

Traded Christian Franklin (OF) and Ronny Cruz (SS) for Michael Soroka

Soroka is a solid 4.00 ERA talent this season and for his career. While Soroka throws a changeup and sinker, he’s a two-pitch guy, a four-seamer and a curve. With just two pitches, he struggles the third time through the order.

TTO: xFIP
1st: 3.49
2nd: 3.48
3rd: 7.49

He provides length to the rotation, with Ben Brown the obvious choice to exit the rotation. Additionally, Jameson Taillon (calf) is about off the IL, so one of Soroka, Colin Rea, or Cade Horton will also head to the bullpen. It could be Soroka since he thrived in the role last year with the White Sox (2.75 ERA, 15.0 K/9, 1.22 WHIP). (7/31)

Diamondbacks

Traded Jordan Montgomery and Shelby Miller to the Brewers for a PTBNL or cash

The only useful news here is that Kevin Ginkel will remain as the team’s closer. Ginkel doesn’t have to worry about Miller coming off the IL to reclaim the closer’s role. (8/1)

Traded Merrill Kelly to the Rangers for Kohl Drake, David Hagaman, and Mitch Bratt

I haven’t read anything, but it seems like Anthony DeSclafani will take Kelly’s spot in the rotation. (7/31)

Traded Josh Naylor (1B) to the Mariners for Brandyn Garcia (LHP) and Ashton Izzi (RHP)

The 25-year-old Garcia threw 2 IP in the majors this season with 1 K, 3 BB, and 2 ER. At this point, he a fantasy non-factor. Ashto Izzi is too far away from the majors (high-A) to be of help.

Someone has to play first base for Arizona, but Naylor’s replacement isn’t obvious. Tristin English got the first start at first base. In AAA, the 28-year-old hit .340/.389/.578 with 13 HR and 0 SB in 294 PA. I wonder if Pavin Smith will move to first base once he returns from the IL. (7/25)

English started at first in every game since the trade. (7/28).

Traded Eugenio Suárez (3B) to the Mariners for Tyler Locklear (DH), Juan Burgos (RP), and Hunter Cranton (RP)

Locklear could become the starting first baseman with Josh Naylor traded away. Calling Locklear a first baseman is generous since he probably should just be a DH.

While Locklear’s top-notch power is intriguing (16 HR in ’24, 19 HR in ’25), his 41% K% in the majors last season is a huge red flag. He’s struggled against all pitch types except sinkers.

While I expect Jordan Lawlar and Geraldo Perdomo to eventually start at short and third, Lawlar’s hurt (hamstring). In the first two games without Suarez, one option. Blaze Alexander (57 wRC+) started at third base. Tristin English (-33 wRC+) played a few games at third in AAA, so he’s another option.

All the corner options project to be replacement-level players, so managers in deeper leagues shouldn’t speculate right away. Just wait for the dust to clear to determine the regulars.

Update: Over the weekend, Blaze Alexander (.633 OPS) remains at third base and Locklear (1 SB) at first base. Another player starting more is Alek Thomas with six starts in seven games. (8/4)

Dodgers

Traded Eriq Swan and Sean Paul Linan to the Nationals for Alex Call (OF)

Call moves from being the short side of a platoon with the Nationals to one with the Dodgers. Even with the team upgrade, he’s remains fantasy irrelevant. (8/1)

Traded Dustin May to Boston for James Tibbs and Zach Ehrhard

While May was in the rotation, he was headed to the bullpen because of his struggles (4.85 ERA, 4.32 xFIP, 1.35 WHIP, 8.4 K/9) with Blake Snell coming off the IL. (8/1)

Traded for Brock Stewart (RP) to the Twins for James Outman

While Stewart (2.38 ERA, 3.71 xFIP, 10.9 K/9, 1.09 WHIP) has never been a closer (two career Saves), he might with the Dodgers since he could be their best reliever. In his first appearance, Stewart pitched the eighth inning with Blake Treinen starting the ninth for a Save. (8/4)

Giants

Traded Camilo Doval to the Yankees on Thursday for Jesus Rodriguez, Parks Harber, and Trystan Vrieling

With Doval gone, the closer’s role opens up, with Randy Rodríguez (1.20 ERA, 2.40 xFIP, 0.84 WHIP, 12.4 K/9) and Ryan Walker (4.12 ERA, 3.56 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP, 8.9 K/9) the most likely replacements. Just looking at the stats, Rodriguez should have a lead, but over the last two weeks, both have been used equally in high-leverage situations (1.1 gmLI). Also, Walker has 21 career Saves while Rodriguez has just one.

Rodriguez was deemed the closer and got the team’s first trade since the deadline.  (8/4)

Traded Mike Yastrzemski to the Royals for Yunior Marte and Mark Feinsand

The move opens up an outfield spot, but there isn’t an obvious replacement. Luis Matos (.164/.207/.355, 5 HR, 3 SB) has spent the most time in the outfield among the others, but he’s not a strong hitter. I’d be interested in Jerar Encarnacion (oblique) if he were healthy.

Since the deadline, Grant McCray (44% K% in 140 career MLB plate appearances) started against both righties. (8/4)

Marlins

Traded Jesús Sánchez (OF) to the Astros for Ryan Gusto, (SP), Chase Jaworsky (SS), and Esmil Valencia (OF)

With Sanchez gone, there is now a void in the outfield. Kyle Stowers’ playing time seems set, so Dane Myers (82 wRC+), Heriberto Hernandez (141 wRC+), and Javier Sanoja (73 wRC+) will fight over the other two outfield spots. For obvious reasons, I’d target Hernandez.

Additionally, there are reports that Jakob Marsee may be promoted.

Traded Nick Fortes (C) to the Rays for Matthew Etzel (OF)

Etzel (OF) is in AA with 17 SB in 239 PA. Most likely not a fantasy factor this season.

With Fortes gone, Liam Hicks‘ value jumps. Hicks was already a nearly a must-roster in two-catcher formats, but extra playing time will push him higher. He started in seven of the last 10 games (5 at 1B, 2 at C) while batting .270/.364/.395 with 5 HR on the season. (7/28)

Mets

Traded Raimon Gomez (RP), Anthony Nunez (RP), and Chandler Marsh (RP) to the Orioles for Cedric Mullins (OF)

Mullins will at least be on the strong side of a center field platoon and possibly have the job for himself. The move destroys Tyrone Taylor’s fantasy value and could do the same for Jeff McNeil. Sure, there will be instances where the team faces several lefties, but either should be immediately dropped.

The effects could be felt at different points in the lineup, like who’s playing second base or is the designated hitter. Since the trade, Brett Baty season to have drawn the short straw with only one start.

The only change over the weekend is Mullins starting against a lefty; maybe his fantasy value heads up. (8/4)

Traded Jesus Baez (SS), Nate Dohm (SP), and Frank Elissalt (RP) to the Cardinals for Ryan Helsley (RP)

Edwin Diaz is still the Mets’ closer, so Helsley’s fantasy value in leagues with Saves is close to zero. Huge move down (7/30).

Nationals

Traded Alex Call (OF) to the Dodgers for Eriq Swan and Sean Paul Linan

Daylen Lile (.240/.287/.373, 2 HR, 4 SB) could start a few more games since he might no longer be in a platoon. Robert Hassell III was promoted from AAA and started the last two games in the outfield. (8/4)

Traded Michael Soroka to the Cubs for  Christian Franklin (OF) and Ronny Cruz (SS)

Soroka’s replacement is not obvious. The one thing this move does is cement Brad Lord into the rotation. As a start, Lord has a 3.79 ERA, 3.97 xFIP, 6.1 K/9, and 1.23 WHIP (7/31/25). While his 95-mph four-seamer is solid (12% SwStr%), his other pitches are below average. (7/31)

Traded Kyle Finnegan (RP) to the Tigers for Josh Randall (SP) and R.J. Sales (SP)

The closer’s job reopened with Jose A. Ferrer (4.78 ERA, 3.21 xFIP, 7.5 K/9, 1.22 WHIP, 61% GB%) as the leading Saves candidate. Possibly Cole Henry or Konnor Pilkington could get the job. In the big pitcher, I’m not sure it matters with the team only having 21 Saves for the season, the fifth-lowest total. (7/31)

Padres

Traded  Brandon Lockridge and Jorge Quintana to the Brewers for Nestor Cortes. 

Once healthy, Cortes will join the rotation, likely pushing J.P. Sears to the bullpen. A depth add. (7/31)

Traded five made-up players  (Cobb Hightower, Victor Figueroa, Tyson Neighbors, Tanner Smith, and Brandon Butterworth) to the Orioles for Ryan O’Hearn (1B) and Ramón Laureano (OF).

Since the trade, Laureano has started every game, O’Hearn started against both righties, and Gavin Sheets sat out all three games.  (8/4)

The Padres traded Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolekare to the Royals for Freddy Fermin

Here is how the Fermin (.255/.309/.339, 3 HR in 208 PA) and the two San Diego catchers, Martín Maldonado and Elias Díaz, hit this season.

Name: wRC+
Fermin: 78
Maldonado: 62
Diaz: 67

Of the three, Fermin has hit the best this season, so maybe he’ll get the most playing time. In the three games since the trade, Fermin started in two of three games. None of the trio is fantasy-relevant except in 15-team two-catcher leagues or deeper. (8/4)

Traded Leo De Vries (SS), Braden Nett (SP), Henry Baez (SP), and Eduarniel Núñez to the Athletics for Mason Miller (RP) and JP Sears (SP)

“Miller goes from being the best closer in the American League to the best closer in the National League.”

Oops … my bad.

The Padres are going to stick with Robert Suarez as the closer, and Miller will set him up. Miller’s value drops.

As for Sears, he’s a little more interesting. He likely slots in as the Pardres’ fourth or fifth starter. The trade should increase the chance Sears gets a Win. Additionally,
Randy Vásquez (3.65 ERA, 5.97 xFIP, 1.37 WHIP, 4.5 K/9, 4.2 BB/9) gets knocked out of the Padres rotation. He had almost no fantasy value to begin with. (8/4)

Phillies

Traded Hendry Mendez (OF) and Geremy Villoria (SP) to the Twins for Harrison Bader (OF) 

Bader ( .258/.339/.439, 12 HR, 10 SB) steps right into the center field role after the combination of Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas failed at the job this year. As a team, the centerfielders have hit .247/.312/.345  with just 6 HR.

Bader hit at the bottom of Minnesota’s lineup but should slot into the middle of the Phillies’ lineup. One problem is that the team plans on platooning him.  (7/31)

Traded Eduardo Tait (C) and Mick Abel (SP) to the Twins for Jhoan Duran (RP)

The Phillies lose a little bit of rotation depth in Abel, but gain their closer in Duran. This trade is a small move up for Duran who moves to a better team. This move kills the fantasy value of David Robertson and Orion Kerkering. I could see Matt Strahm get a handful of Saves if several tough lefties are due up in the ninth.

Duran is for sure the closer.

Jhoan Duran intro at Citizens Bank Park

— John Foley (@2008philz.bsky.social) 2025-08-02T01:34:32.831Z

Signed David Robertson

Robertson agreed to a short minor league stint before joining the major league team. He hasn’t thrown yet in AAA, so there are no velocity readings to see where he stands. While Robertson will pitch in high-leverage situations, the team will likely add more and/or better bullpen arms, placing Robertson in a setup role. (7/25)

Pirates

Traded Bailey Falter (SP) to the Royals for Evan Sisk and Callan Moss.

Someone has to take Falter’s rotation spot so maybe the team will call up one of their top prospects (Chandler, Ashcraft, Harrington). Most likely, it’ll be some quad-A talent they find off the waiver wire.

Traded David Bednar (RP) to the Yankees for Edgleen Perez (C), Brian Sanchez (OF), and Rafael Flores (C)

With Bednar gone, Dennis Santana (1.36 ERA, 6 Saves, 7.4 K/9) is now the closer. (8/1)

The Pirates traded Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B) to the Reds for Taylor Rogers (RP) and Sammy Stafura (SS)

Hayes started at third base in 91 games this year, with all others starting in 17 games. Someone will need to take over with the first opportunity going to Isiah Kiner-Falefa, with Liover Peguero (124 wRC+) now at shortstop. Peguero got his strikeouts (24% K% in ’25, 31% K% for his career) under control. Additionally, most of his power metrics are up. Peguero is one of the guys, if he stays at shortstop, who has seen his fantasy value jump the most.

A little more clarity after the weekend. Jared Triolo (.525 OPS) started at third base. None of these guys are even average major leaguers but in leagues where nearly every player is rostered, they have some value. (8/4)

Reds

The Reds traded Taylor Rogers (RP) and Sammy Stafura (SS) to the Pirates for Ke’Bryan Hayes  (3B)

The only fantasy-relevant player in this trade is Hayes, and his value takes a hit going to the Reds. While there is a park upgrade, the Reds have decent third base options like Santiago Espinal, who has outperformed Hayes over their careers.

Are the Reds tanking?Career numbersSantiago Espinal: .263/.318/.352, 66 wRC+Ke'Bryan Hayes: .236/.279/.290, 57 wRC+

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman.bsky.social) 2025-07-30T19:14:54.900Z

Reports have Hayes taking over that third base with Noelvi Marte moving to the outfield

For a team that is three games out of the third wild-card spot and was in search of an outfield bat and bullpen help, it might sound odd that the team added an infielder and a starter, but both moves have ripple effects that fill the outfield and bullpen. Hayes moves third baseman Noelvi Marte to the outfield …

Marte started in right field on Monday, Jake Fraley on the bench.

A couple banged up players is obscurring the team’s intention. We’ll need a few more games to know for sure. (8/4)

Traded  Brian Van Belle (SP) and Adam Serwinowski (SP) to the Rays for Zack Littell (SP)

Littell (3.58 ERA, 4.59 xFIP, 6.0 K/9, and 1.12 WHIP) adds rotation depth for the Cubs, with his fantasy value staying relatively constant. The plan is to move Nick Martinez to the bullpen.

“We looked at the relief market where we could add to the bullpen, and this was the best of both worlds where we got to add starting depth and add to the bullpen by putting Martinez there,” said Nick Krall, the Reds’ president of baseball operations. (8/1)

Rockies

Ryan McMahon (3B) traded to the Yankees for Griffin Herring (LHP) and Josh Grosz (RHP).

Both of the pitchers coming to the Rockies are in High-A and are non-factors this season. As for the void McMahon creates, it’s tough to know right away who will take over. Besides McMahon, Orlando Arcia saw the most time at third base with five games. (7/25)

Arcia started at third base in every game since the trade. (7/28)

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

WOW! How about today?! That was amazing.

Please forgive me for a commentary-free board tonight, I’m writing up today’s crazyyyy deadline though I unfortunately drew the short straw with the AL as I think the NL had the way more compelling moves from a fantasy perspective (keep an eye on Jakob Marsee in Miami!). The starter market wasn’t that crazy, but I still want to get my rankings updated very soon because while the movement might’ve been minimal at the top, there was plenty in the middle and low tiers.

Trade Deadline Coverage: AL by me | NL by Jeff

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to the final position player playing time update prior to Thursday’s trade deadline! There’ll surely be even more to go over next week, but even so far there’s been plenty of trade-related fallout after the trades of Josh Naylor, Randal Grichuk, and Danny Jansen.

Just another amazing play by Cedanne Rafaela!

Read the rest of this entry »