Archive for Featured

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 639 – Third Base Preview Pt. 2

2/6/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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Justin Mason Baseball Chat – February, 5th 2019

Here is today’s chat transcript:
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Top 120 Starting Pitchers

For me, the end of the Super Bowl is the official start of the fantasy baseball season. Obviously, I never really take my attention away from baseball even after the World Series, but I’m definitely an outlier. There are plenty of big time baseball and football fans who close the book on the diamond for the pigskin come October (or even September if their fantasy team falls out and their favorite team doesn’t make the playoffs) only to return once football is done.

Well, it’s done!

With that, it’s time for a new SP ranking update. I’d be hinting at an update coming sooner than later, so I appreciate your patience. I’ve got a list running 120 deep with colored bars denoting some talent breaks. There is still a substantial Glob™ where the distinctions between pitchers become thinner. I don’t have an ironclad case for #80 over #106 the way I do #16 over #42. These are my preferences, though. I’m not leaning on The Glob™ to shirk accountability for my rankings, but it’d be foolish not to acknowledge how wide-open SP ranks become around 70 or so. In fact, there’s an upper tier Glob™ from around 35 to 79 and then the standard Glob™ from 80 until maybe even 150 or so, but I decided to cut it at 120.

I’ll have plenty more on pitcher rankings in the coming months, including lists with commentary on most (if not all) pitchers, lists for attacking The Glob™, my biggest buys, my biggest fades, and more! Justin and I will have a two-part positional preview pod on starting pitchers, each likely approaching two hours if I had to guess. But for now, enjoy this list and let me know what you think in the comments below.

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Hitters Who Need Replacement At-Bats

I’m finally at the point where I need to start working in replacement level production into my projections. Today’s focus is on hitters will miss a set time frame or just assume will miss some time. I’m not going to work in players who will miss time here and there (e.g.the Ryan Braun special) for this or that nagging injury. Instead, I’m focusing on batters who can be DL’ed and someone else can take their place.

To evaluate these players, their time off needs to be determined (my goal today) and then replacement level stats can be added in for these off weeks. The replacement level stats will be an average of the available waiver wire batters. While these replacement level players aren’t great, they will provide some production until the rookie/injured/suspended player returns. With every league being unique, owners are going to need to find this talent level for their own league.

And remember, these are my estimates (link to on-going updates). Each owner should make their own adjustments for their own risk tolerance.

Injured with a known time frame

Gregory Polanco: He had shoulder surgery in mid-September and had a seven to a nine-month recovery time frame with a mid-April to mid-June return.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 638 – Reliever, Congressman, or Prospect w/Ellen Adair

2/4/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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Ellen’s gives a rebuttal to Ian re: wanting Manny Machado or Bryce Harper (3:25)

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A Minor Review of 2018: Miami Marlins

Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

If you were perusing this series last year you would have read this:

First Taste of The Show: Brian Anderson, 3B: I’ve been a fan of Anderson since he turned pro in 2014. The former third-round selection likely won’t be a star but he should develop into a steady, everyday player for The Fish. And, after appearing in 25 big league games in 2017, he could back-up both second and third base in ’18 — or take over a starting gig if the cost-conscious Marlins get rid of Starlin Castro or Martin Prado. He has a chance to be a very good defender — especially at third base — and projects to be an average hitter with average power, although he should produce good on-base rates with his history of walking at a healthy clip.

Now on to the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Trevor Richards, RHP: An unheralded pitching prospect, Richards couldn’t even get drafted and ended up playing independent baseball for two years before signing with the Marlins as a free agent. His rise is far more successful than his stuff. He has a fastball that scrapes 90 miles per hour and lacks a consistent breaking ball. Even so, Richards struck out more than a batter per inning. He succeeds with fastball command, a very good changeup and above-average control. To continue having success, Richards is going to need to work down in the zone more consistently after seeing his ground-ball rate drop more than 10% over his minor league career average to a well-below-average 35.8%.

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2019 Pod Projections: Yusei Kikuchi

Alas, it’s Pod Projections time, as the 2019 forecasts are now available! As usual, I’ll dive into my projection methodology (detailed in Projecting X 2.0) by sharing my process on several hitters and pitchers.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 637 – Third Base Preview Pt. 1

2/1/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

Notable transactions

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Innings Pitched Disagreements: Part 1

Yesterday, I examined some hitters with the largest plate appearance projection discrepancies using five separate sources. Today, pitchers take center stage.

I’m using the projected playing times from FanGraphs Depth charts and four other sources. Again, I won’t name them as I don’t want to debate the merits of each. My goal is to just find and evaluate different takes on the same players.

The differences aren’t nearly as drastic as the hitters, especially for the top arms. Most of the major differences involve around unknown roles and injury risks. I listed the top-200 at the end while the values for free agents and foreign signings may be off or missing. I’m going to focus on the biggest differences in some top-ranked pitchers.

Ross Stripling
Range (Max-Min): 67
Average: 112
Standard Deviation: 33

I’m not surprised one bit on Stripling. Unless the Dodgers get hit with a ton of injuries to their starters, he’s going to begin the season as a reliever or in the minors. He’s got the talent to be a top-20 starter but the number of starts he’ll get is unknown. Owners can draft him and hope his talent forces the Dodgers hand. The other issue is that he’s on the Dodgers who manipulate their roster to give pitchers scheduled days off via demotions or “injuries”. Good luck guessing right with him.

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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – February 1st, 2019

Friday’s transcript is live!

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