Justin Mason Baseball Chat – February, 5th 2019

February 5, 2019

Here is today’s chat transcript:

9:04	Justin Mason: Hey everyone!

9:05	Justin Mason: I may have to wrap up a bit early today because I am recording sleeper and the bust with Paul after.

9:05	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: I understand not wanting to talk negatively about other people in the fantasy advice community, but are there any “experts” you tend to avoid?

9:05	Justin Mason: LOL! For sure. Thank you for listening to the TGFBI pod!

9:05	BigTuna: Would you keep Carlos Martinez in the 7th round of a 12 team league? I’m not sure what role to expect for him this season.

9:05	Justin Mason: I love his value this season. Finished the year healthy and has been a top 20 SP before.

9:05	Gumby Johnson: Buy/Sell/Hold Eddie Rosario? Have enjoyed great ROI from him in a dynasty but been thinking his value may be at a peak.

9:06	Justin Mason: I am holding. I believe what we saw last year.

9:06	BigTuna: With the “glob” of SP in the middle of the ranks being so large this year, how are you approaching SP in a draft? Trying to get two aces and then waiting on the rest? Trying to just live in the glob and hope 1 or 2 breakout?

9:06	Justin Mason: I have been trying to get an ace or two and then waiting a long time for the Andrew Heaney’s and Pivetta’s of the world.

9:06	chet: bogaerts and puig too much of an overpay for mondesi in a dynasty league?

9:06	Justin Mason: way too much

9:06	Vegan Man!: 12 team OPS roto – would you rather have Carpenter, Matt Chapman, or Suarez this year? Thanks!

9:07	Justin Mason: Suarez, but I like all three

9:07	Vegan Man!: Hey Justin, thanks for chatting! 12 team standard h2h, keep 4 forever. Have a bunch of tough keeper decisions: Harper, Soto, Freeman, Correa, Albies, deGrom, Nola, Snell, Kershaw, Bauer. Thoughts? Thank you!

9:07	Justin Mason: Harper, Soto, Freeman, dGrom

9:07	BigTuna: Which TWO would you keep in a 12 tm OPS league: Devers in the 8th, Bichette in the 26th, Glasnow in the 19th or Christin Stewart in the 27th?

9:08	Justin Mason: Bichette is the easy answer. I lean Stewart with the big discount.

9:08

BigTuna: My league drastically overdrafts closers every year. Last year I tried to wait on closers but ended up with Boxberger and hot garbage. When your league clearly overdrafts/values one position, do you have to jump in and play the game for at least one guy or just hope my late round fliers are better this year?

9:08	Justin Mason: You have to a bit unless you are going to punt saves. I hate picking out the lower tier guys.

9:09	Vegan Man!: Who do you like best in a 14 team dynasty points leagues (points favor power/OBP bats) – Dee, Choo, Andrus, Smoak, or Grichuk? Thanks!

9:09	Justin Mason: Choo, Smoak

9:09	Vegan Man!: Last 2 pitcher keepers in a 14 team dynasty league: Stroman, Musgrove, Arrieta, Maeda? Thanks!

9:09	Justin Mason: Maeda and Musgrove

9:09	Kevin : Is Touki a reliever?

9:10	Justin Mason: I hope not. He still has some polishing to do, but they will give him a chance to start. That being said, if he gets moved into the bullpen, he would be a valuable closer or Hader like reliever.

9:10	Kevin Kelsey: Is Kyle Freeland for real?

9:10	Justin Mason: To some extent he is. Obviously he will regress a little, but I don’t think he falls apart.

9:11	Jim Leyland Palmer: With these hitting cats: H, R, HR, RBI, AVG, OPS, SB. How would you rank these 5 guys for this season: Altuve, Harper, Machado, Yelich & Goldy. Thanks!

9:11	Justin Mason: Yelich, Machado, Harper, Altive, Goldy

9:11

another bad dynasty manager: Hi Justin: deep points league. I can only keep five prospects from this six: P. Alonso, T. Trammell, K. Hiura, A. Riley, C. Kieboom and C. Pache. Since Hiura and Alonso fit my needs in my dynasty league, they’re no brainers. Which one of the last four do I drop? (OF is a weakness, btw.) Thanks!

9:11	Justin Mason: Riley

9:11	Guest: Do you think Chris Paddack gets enough innings to matter in 2019? There’s a lot to like in the profile, including 70 FB, 70 CU, and 70 command.

9:12	Justin Mason: I think he could gets some innings later in the season for the Padres, but I wouldn’t stash him. He’s only pitched 37.2 innings at AA this year

9:12	Justin Mason: last year

9:12	Evan: Choosing between Dahl or Muncy for my last keeper in a h2h categories 5×5. Either one would cost a 21st rd pick. I’m also keeping Acuna in the OF and have the first overall pick and can get Trout. Thank you!

9:12	Justin Mason: Dahl

9:12	wolfs: Paul and Nick P are both seemingly low on Greinke this year…where do you stand? What is holding him back from still being a top 15 or so SP this season?

9:13	Justin Mason: I think the fear of veto and skills decline weigh on them. He is in a glob of SP2s for me. Probably outside of my top 15 but inside my top 20.

9:13	wolfs: How high does Gallo rise in your 1B rankings in an OBP league?

9:14	Justin Mason: Very high. He probably gets in the 7

9:14	Dave: Keep two of four, need saves or best chance for them. Steckenrider, Bradley, Vizcaino, Morrow

9:15	Justin Mason: Vizcaino and Morrow, but I don’t like any of these guys this year

9:15	Kevin Kelsey: Does Albies regress this year?

9:15	Justin Mason: Probably not

9:15	Cove Dweller: How early should I feel comfortable drafting Vlad Jr? Non-keeper, 10-team league

9:15	Justin Mason: In a shallow league like that, I would pull the trigger in the top 40. There is enough talent on your bench to fill in for him

9:15	Vegan Man!: My 12 team roto recently switched from SV’s to SV+HLD. What would your draft strategy be in regards to RP? I feel like I can wait much longer than usual and grab some quality set up men late. Thoughts? Thank you!

9:16	Justin Mason: My strategy doesn’t change that much. I still prefer the top saves guys. Bumps up the Hader’s of the world, but holds are a fickle stat and hard to chase.

9:16	wolfs: Is there a danger in taking 2 outfielders with your first 2 or 3 picks in a 3 OFer league?

9:17	Justin Mason: Depends on how comfortable you are with the other positions. I tend to ignore positions in the first 4-5 rounds

9:17	Hanging with Mr. Cooperstown: Thanks for the chat Justin! 8×8 keeper league, $150 budget, 12 teams, 15 keepers. My $7.50 JD for his $3.75 Bogaerts and $1.25 M. Chapman. How’s it smell?

9:17	Justin Mason: I want JD

9:17	Clayton Richard: Do you think Randal Grichuk’s got some sleeper potential this year? Feels like he made some adjustments last season and might have a freak Trumbo season in him. Or maybe even a mid-career Bautista/Encarnacion breakout?

9:18	Justin Mason: I think he has that upside, but he also has Trumbo’s floor. There is a lot of risk with him. He will play though

9:18

Matt W: So my league has decided that after this season we are wiping the slate clean and doing a full redraft (have been a keep-10 league for 9 seasons now, and a couple players like Kershaw have been kept by the same team since the first season). Do you have any thoughts on how to maximize the final season of keeperness? Go all in on high-priced talent and ignore prospects who could be another year or two away?

9:18	Justin Mason: That is exactly what I would do. Can’t keep them, so don’t draft prospects.

9:18	Richard: What do we do with Alex Reyes this year? Think he ends up the Cardinals closer, or more of a Hader-type?

9:19	Justin Mason: I think he starts as a Hater type, but moves into the rotation.

9:19	Kevin Kelsey: Have you ever been wrong?

9:19	Justin Mason: ALL THE TIME

9:19	Vegan Man!: I have Correa, Seager, and Tatis in my 14 team dynasty points league. If you were going to trade 1 of them for a top tier SP, who would it be? Thanks!

9:19	Justin Mason: Correa. He has the most value and is overrated right now.

9:19	Baseball Brit: Dear Mr. Mason. A number of Brits are keen to start playing fantasy for the first time this year. Points seems the likely format choice but which website would you recommend for beginners? E.g. ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, etc.

9:20	Justin Mason: I prefer ESPn for a free league. CBS for a paid one.

9:20	Justin Mason: If you want customization, Fantrax is great for that.

9:20	Sid: Whats your take on Javy Baez? Does he continue to put up last years #s possibly improving or do we see him regress some?

9:21	Justin Mason: I think he has to regress from last year a little. Maybe he is a unicorn, but that plate discipline is atrocious.

9:21	Kevin Kelsey: Why don’t you like Riley?

9:21	Justin Mason: I like Riley, like the other prospects more.

9:21	Guest: How many closers should I target in a 15 team 30 round nfbc?

9:21	Justin Mason: 2

9:21	Jimmy Nelson: Assuming we don’t sign Keuchel, or trade for MadBum, am I the Brewers ace at the of 2019?

9:22	Justin Mason: Even if the Brewers do, I think you are.

9:22	BabyfartsMcgeezak: Is it OK to cut people like Jose Martinez/Camargo who do not have a starting role for pitchers with potential when pitching is a higher value in your league?

9:22	Justin Mason: sure

9:22	The Final Boss: Where will you be drafting Villar? Do you think he sits closer to 19/62 (2016) or 11/23 (2017)?

9:23	Justin Mason: Around picks 75-100. I think he is a 15/40 guy.

9:23	chet: strahm getting rotation IP this season, or opener IP?

9:23	Justin Mason: I think they will give him a chance to start. I am grabbing him in leagues already

9:23	Ricardo: Hi,

9:23	Justin Mason: Hi!

9:24	Kc: Is there really that much difference between Segura and the Adames/Peraza’s of the world to justify the difference in ADP? OBP league.

9:24	Justin Mason: It’s safety, but that is why I am usually drafting from the tier of deJong, Adames, and Semien if I miss out on one of the stud SS’s.

9:24	resumeman: In Scoresheet, would you prefer Mazara or Piscotty over the next handful of years?

9:25	Justin Mason: Don’t play scoresheet.

9:25	resumeman: Do you think Anthony Alford will amount to much? How about Zack Collins?

9:25	Justin Mason: I feel like if Alford was going to emerge, he would have by now. I love Collins though. Think he could be a top 5-10 catcher.

9:25	RayG: Hi Justin – who gets the most ABs at 2b for the Rockies this season? If Hampson, what kind of stats do you see him putting up?

9:26	Justin Mason: Hampson for sure. I think he could hit .290 and steal 40 bases. Love him!

9:26	Kevin: Should I be running to trade Kluber in a keep forever league? I’m contending but I’m worried this is my last chance to get something for him.

9:26	Justin Mason: Only is I am getting market value.

9:26	Nick: What’s the long-term outlook for Derek Fisher? Is he a hold in dynasty? His performance last year left me… uninspired.

9:26	Justin Mason: I think he is blocked in Houston, so unless he gets traded, he is a 4th outfielder

9:26	DynastyStarter: How should I adjust my auction values for a dynasty draft while staying impartial? We can keep guys forever at no cost starting next year so I’m torn

9:27	Justin Mason: I tend to only use youth as a tiebreaker. I want to win years 1, so while other people are grabbing prospects, I tend to treat dynasty league draft like a redraft.

9:27	Shane Bieber: I feel like I’m a zone% adjustment away from finding another level. Do you believe in me?

9:27	Justin Mason: I am not a bielber

9:28	BabyfartsMcgeezak: For a dynasty league how do you rank Cease/James/Toussaint?

9:28	Justin Mason: Touki, James, Cease

9:28	Justin Mason: mostly because of proximity. I actually like all three a lot.

9:28

Vegan Man!: Ke’Bryan Hayes has been getting a lot of prospect love this offseason (Keith Law has him at 18 and Eric and Kiley have been teasing a 55FV rating for him). I know his defense is a major reason why he’s ranked so high, but do you think he can be a 3B/CIF starter in 14 team leagues in the future? Seems to make a ton of contact, has decent speed, and the power may come later… Thanks!

9:29	Justin Mason: I think he could turn into an early career version of Anthony Rendon. five category contributors.

9:29

sim: Thoughts on keeping Flaherty (Keep-Forever League) vs. gambling and letting him go for a shot at Paxton in the 4th Round instead? 12-Team Points League, can keep up to 4 Players max (projecting 35-40 Total guys will be kept) and Keepers automatically serve as your First Picks (4 Keepers = your Picks Rounds 1-4). Keeping Turner/Kershaw/Rizzo, Flaherty would be my 4th Rounder and Paxton isn’t being kept. Basically asking does Jack’s Keep-Forever value vault him over Paxton in Ranks for Drafts this year?

9:29	Justin Mason: Keep Flaherty. I have him above Paxton

9:29	PM: I believe you have mentioned you favor standard categories at least with respect to wins and saves. How bad would the current trajectory or pitching roles being muddled need to get before you would change your mind there?

9:30	Justin Mason: I don’t think fantasy needs to mirror real life in that sense. For me the game play comes first. That being said, I like different categories also.

9:30

Rays Fans: Thanks for the chat today. 24 tm Dynasty with contracts. Want to compete 2019. Points based league. I have little depth at 1B, and I’m considering dealing for Goldschmidt and Daniel Murphy. The ask is a package that would include a cheap Nick Senzel, Christian Pache, Dustin May, Stephen Gonsalves, and probably Logan Allen or Brusdar Graterol. Not a lot of context, but worth exploring?

9:31	Justin Mason: I think it is worth exploring in a league that deep, but that is a lot to give up.

9:31	Rich Amaral: Kyle Seager’s a pretty reliable fantasy quantity. Do you think he can bounce back to 2016/2017 levels or will age and his shift BABIP keep his stats suppressed?

9:31	Justin Mason: I son’t have a ton of faith in a big bounce back.

9:31	Justin Mason: dont

9:31	Milton : Thanks for the chat Justin. In a 12 team H2H OBP league I can keep 6. Out of these four which 3 would you keep? E. Suarez, Javier Baez, Carlos Carrasco, Carlos Correa. Thanks

9:31	Justin Mason: Suarex, Baez, Carrasco

9:32	chet: travis shaw or daniel murphy 6×6 (walks) this season?

9:32	Justin Mason: Murphy

9:32	Ricardo: Hi… in a 16 man H2H dynasty league, would you consider Jake Faria for a rebuilding team over more established pitchers like Chase Anderson or Matt Shoemaker? Should I be scared about the Rays Opener explosion?

9:32	Justin Mason: I prefer Faria. I love the underlying skills.

9:32	stonecold: I can keep Winker for more or less nothing in an OPS league, but pretty nervous about his playing time. What would your sage advice be?

9:33	Justin Mason: I have been a big detractor of Winker. The playing time has just made me believe less than I already did.

9:33	wolfs: Bryant over Baez?

9:33	Justin Mason: No, but closer than most would think.

9:33	chet: vince velasquez worth holding?

9:33	Justin Mason: nope

9:33	William: Ryan McKenna look like a starting OF in Baltimore this spring?

9:33	Justin Mason: Not in spring, but maybe in summer.

9:33	Justin Mason: like him a lot too.

9:34	Vegan Man!: If you’re trying to win now in a 14 team dynasty league, would you forfeit your 1st round pick (usually reserved for the top picks from the 2018 MLB draft) in order to keep someone like Smoak, Arrieta, Dee, Stroman, or Andrus? If so, who you leaning towards? Thanks!

9:34	Justin Mason: I think it would depend on where my pick is. Would lean Dee if I traded it though.

9:34	Justin Mason: or Smoak

9:35	Kevin: 2 of Shaw, Mondesi, Gallo, Pham, or Puig in a keep 10 forever league.

9:35	Justin Mason: Mondesi and Pham

9:35	Broken Bat: Can Gray of Rocs ever really be a #1 or a perpetual tease.

9:35	Justin Mason: I don’t think he is ever a #1, but he could be a #2 or #3.

9:35	Cheeks: Who do you think closes for the Cardinals?

9:35	Justin Mason: Kimbrel

9:35	Justin Mason: lol, probably Hicks for now and then Leone later

9:36	Justin Mason: but they should sign Kimbrel

9:36	chet: any SD OF’s you’re gambling on in a dynasty league? short term, is renfroe the best option?

9:36	Justin Mason: I prefer Margot. I think Renfroe is the safest option, but Franmil is more interesting.

9:37	Vegan Man!: Does a switch from AVG to OPS drastically change your draft strategy on offense? Obviously it slightly increases the value of OBP/Power guys, but does it also create opportunities for value with speed guys? Thanks!

9:37	Justin Mason: It changes it some, but I think people tend to overrate how much added value we put on the offensive rate stats when we go from average to something else.

9:37

DJ Tanner: 12 team roto 5×5 (OPS instead of AVG). You have to keep 6, but can keep up to 8. I have a bunch of guys (Aguilar, Nimmo, A Hicks, Folty, German M) that are all probably just outside top 6 rounds but would go in the 7-9 range. Who do keep of those guys assuming I already have 2 solid keepers in Bregman and Freeman. There’s a CI spot so Aguilar could slot there. So do I pick 4 of that list and let the rest go?

9:38	Justin Mason: Give me Hicks, Aguilar, Nimmo, and Marquez

9:38	Siri: Keep 2 in h2h categories league with OBP/SLG: Matt carpenter ($17), Eugenio Suarez ($1), Ozzie Albies ($8), and Juan Soto ($17). Each would face $5 increase per year to keep beyond 2019. Already keeping Goldy and Acuna.

9:39	Justin Mason: Suarez and Soto

9:39	Mike: 12 team, 5×5 with OBP, keep forever. Any thought to keeping Albies/Mondesi/Robles over Springer or am I overthinking it?

9:39	Justin Mason: I have no problem keeping Mondesi over Springer for the upside.

9:39	Justin Mason: Or actually, I would keep Robles

9:40	Sum: do I have Buehler, Flahery, and Soroka in the right order? thanks!

9:40	Justin Mason: yes

9:40	Matt Olson: What am I this season? My Statcast data says I should’ve been much more dominant last year…am I closer to 2017 or 2018?

9:41	Justin Mason: I think in between. Like 30-35 bombs with a .240 averagre

9:41	RayG: who gets the most ABs in that crowded Padres OF?

9:41	Justin Mason: Renfroe

9:41	Justin Mason: Hopefully Harper

9:41	William: Does Omar Narvaez in Seattle have a chance at top 15 catcher with his plate discipline and some power?

9:41	Justin Mason: You have a chance at a top 15 catcher, William

9:42	JC: Tatis for a last round pick (26th) or Thor for a 12th? Keep forever, moves up a round each year

9:42	Justin Mason: Tatis

9:42	Vladdy: Is Jimmy Nelson finding his way onto your teams? I feel like he could pitch most of the year with very good numbers.

9:42	Justin Mason: All of my teams have him

9:42	Pie Eaton Contest: How would you feel about waiting on SS for Rosario instead of taking a Segura much earlier?

9:42	Justin Mason: scroll up

9:43	stuck in a slump: Justin, help me out! In a 20 team keeper in which you need power, OBP, and SLG in a corner IF, what should you expect to get back for Lucchesi?

9:43	Justin Mason: Maybe like Franmil Reyes or Ian Happ?

9:44	Joey: Positions aside would you swap Baez for Hoskins in a 16 team H/H League R/HR/RBI/SB/OBP ?

9:44	Justin Mason: yes, but try and get another piece too

9:44	stonecold: I could keep Piscotty for borderline nothing in an OPS/QS (no W) league. Would you prefer him in the 22th, Suarez in the 10th, or Corbin in the 14th?

9:44	Justin Mason: Prefer Suarez

9:44	aka22: $20 Ozuna, $17 Puig, or $4 Nimmo – which OF would you keep in a 10 team NL Only 5×5 $260 budget

9:45	Justin Mason: Puig

9:45	Broken Bat: Do you think Kapler will use Quinn to steal a base a game ( pinch running and a maybe 200 at bats) like the Reds should have utilized Billy Hamilton. Are “ designated speedsters” the coming trend like bull p n days

9:45	Justin Mason: I have no idea honestly, but he is worth the gamble late because he could be Jarrod Dyson 2.0

9:46	Paul: Our league allows 3 keepers from year to year. I’m definitely keeping Yelich and Acuna, but who else from this bunch: Aguilar, Albies, Myers, Torres?

9:46	Justin Mason: Albies

9:46	Justin Mason: Got to run so I can go record with Paul. As always, you can hit me up on twitter @justinmasonfwfb

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG