Archive for Featured

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 642 – 1B Preview Pt. 2

2/12/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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Notable News

  • PITCHERS & CATCHERS HAVE REPORTED!!!!!!!!!!
  • Francisco Lindor injury (9:40)
  • Kyler Murray peaces out to football (22:40)

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Francisco Lindor: Value Adjustment

News broke on Friday that Francisco Lindor would be out seven to nine weeks with a strained calf. The reaction to the injury was swift. In NFBC’s Online Championship before the injury news, he had a 4.8 ADP in ten contests. In the two contests over the weekend, his ADP dropped to 16.5 after Jose Altuve, Javier Baez, Alex Bregman, and Trevor Story. So, is the drop deserved or did they drop him too far or not far enough? I’m going to fully breakdown how much I would change his value in a sample league.

With so many league variations, I need to pick a lane with his value adjustment. I going to take a 15-team roto league using AVG. For this league, I’ll use the Standing Gains Points (formulas in my book) as a shortcut to help determine his value and use couple tools to help speed along the process.

Add in replacement level

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Injury Chances with 10-Day IL (DL)

Injuries analysis is becoming a pain in the butt. First, MLB goes and changes the days missed from 15 to 10 thereby nullifying several projection models. And now they’ve gone and renamed the Disabled List the Injury List. I think of naming it the BDL (Broke D__k List). I’ve been waiting for a few more seasons of DL data to create a new formula which will become obsolete with the 12-day DL but why wait. I have two seasons of 10-day IL information to create a few comparisons, especially for pitchers.

While I’ve historically collected the data, Ryan Brock jumped in and completed the 2018 season. I’m not sure if I would have gotten to pulling it together because when I normally do it (post-season), I was finishing my book. I can’t thank Ryan enough.

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A Minor Review of 2018: Chicago Cubs

Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

If you were perusing this series back in 2015:

The Riser: Willson Contreras, C: Our very own Carson Cistulli was all over Contreras like a fat kid on a Smartie this past season. The catcher came out of nowhere to become one of the Cubs’ more intriguing prospects. He significantly improved his plate discipline while moving up from A-ball to Double-A for the first time in his career. Contreras, 23, averaged a strikeout rate of about 20% between 2012-14 but saw it drop to just 12% in 2015. Not only that, he showed more pop and took more walks. With Kyle Schwarber likely relocated to the outfield from catcher for good, Contreras is the catcher-of-the-future in Chicago.

Now on to the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Duane Underwood Jr., RHP: Underwood Jr. is a bit of an enigma. He was a highly coveted pitcher coming out of high school but he’s battled injury, seen his stuff take a step back and questions have been raised around his effort/maturity. Still, he made it to The Show in 2018, albeit for one game. He’s athletic but he has a stiff delivery and could stand to use his legs more but that might also lessen his command/control. As with most pitchers, he’s at his best when he’s down in the zone and avoids the middle of the plate. His stuff is good but it’s not overpowering. Underwood Jr. might be better suited to relieving where he can focus on his fastball and breaking ball while perhaps adding back some velo on his heater.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 641 – Fireside Chat: SP Rankings Breakdown

2/9/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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A Minor Review of 2018: Arizona Diamondbacks

Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

The Arizona Diamondbacks

If you were perusing this series back in 2013 you would have read this:

The Sleeper: Jake Lamb, 3B: I really wanted to include Lamb on the Diamondbacks’ 2013 pre-season Top 15 prospects list but he ultimately fell just short and landed in the sleeper category. Arizona third basemen enjoyed a solid season and two prospects — Lamb and Brandon Drury (considered for The Riser section) — saw their values rise significantly. Injuries held the Washington native to just 69 games on the season so he’s currently getting extra work in during the Arizona Fall League.

Now on to the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Yoshihisa Hirano, RHP: One thing the organization doesn’t do overly well is supplement its roster with homegrown players (other than in the bullpen). Yes, it’s happened in the past — with the case of a Jake Lamb or Paul Goldschmidt — but not nearly often enough for a team that is constantly fighting a battle with the budget.Those first four to six years of a player’s availability are so valuable to teams now; the club didn’t get back as much as I would have liked for Goldschmidt in terms of impact talent but they were desperate for “controllable talent.” Now on to Hirano, another new player but one that was not developed in house and cost the Diamondbacks more than they should have payed for an unproven commodity. Now, things worked out OK and Hirano had a nice year. He showed good command of both his fastball and plus splitter while inducing a healthy number of walks. The club will hope that Hirano, soon to be 35, will be effective for the final year of his two-year contract, while serving as insurance for first-year closer Archie Bradley.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 640 – 1B Preview — “Apparently, I Love Jake Bauers”

2/7/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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Notable News

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Justin Mason’s Top 121 Starting Pitchers

Over the next ten days, I will release the rest of my positional ranks for the 2019 season. ADP is from NFBC sorted by 1/1/2019 through 2/7/19

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10 Hitters with 1st Round Upside

I read a piece this week from Will Leitch about 10 dark-horse MVP candidates for 2019. I love pieces like that I wanted to bring that similar idea to the fantasy landscape. Replacing “MVP” with “top 10 hitter” which is essentially first round was easy part, but I wasn’t sure what threshold would be worthwhile and highlight some players we’re not already full hyping.

There is only one top 10 hitter this year who had a 2018 ADP later than 66 (Ronald Acuña at 128) and only Christian Yelich (66, obviously) joined him outside the top 33, but I thought inside the top 100 was too easy. Or not necessarily “easy” because identifying the players who will jump into next year’s top 10 hitters is insanely tough once you get past pick 30 or so, but getting drafted within the top 100 is essentially a co-sign that you could surge into those top two rounds. I decided to use 150 as my starting point.

I’ve got 10 hitters currently going outside the top 150 capable of having that dream breakout season needed to make “the leap”. I’ll identify the evolution we could see in their skills to reach the lofty heights worthy pushing to the 1st-2nd round area. After writing them up, I’ll give a 600 PA projection of what the dream season could look like if it comes to fruition. This is a mix of their career performance, their skills profile, projections, and then some dream dust sprinkled on top to get them into the 90th+ percentile of their potential outcomes.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 639 – Third Base Preview Pt. 2

2/6/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

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