I’ve been mock drafting along with the MLB amateur draft for as long as I can remember and was inspired to do so by Jim Callis, who did the same thing for Baseball America (He’s now with MLB.com). But unlike a lot of mock drafts, I choose who I would take at each slot not who I think teams will take.
I’ll be doing another mock first round on Day 1 of the draft but I thought it might be fun to look back at how well I did last year while drafting for each of the first 30 selections. Obviously, it’s too early to know exactly how the 2018 draft will play out in the long term but we can still gain some insight.
My choices are always based on a healthy dose of video review with some statistical analysis rolled in for the college players, as well as from information gleaned from player reports from Fangraphs, Baseball America and the gentlemen at the MLB.com Prospect Pipeline (the aforementioned Callis and Jonathan Mayo).
I’ve had some success making the first overall selection in the past including nabbing Kris Bryant in 2013 (He went second overall after the Astros whiffed on Mark Appel with the first pick) and Carlos Correa, who actually went first overall to the Astros in 2012, which went against the industry consensus at the time.
Looking way back to 2007, my two favorite prep arms were Tim Alderson (oops) and Madison Bumgarner.
OK, let’s get started with the review. Remember, this is a ranking of where I feel the players should be drafted based on future potential, not based on where I think they’ll actually go.
My Pick: 1. (Tigers) Casey Mize, RHP, college
Well, this one was a no-brainer for both myself and the Tigers. And Mize has looked every bit the stud hurler. He’s already in Double-A and should already be a highly-sought-after commodity in dynasty leagues. Mize has a 1.66 ERA in 14 career starts and the only though the concerns me a little bit is the lack of big strikeout numbers (68 in 70.1 innings).
My Pick: 2. (Giants) Brady Singer, RHP, college
Singer was a top pick out of high school, too, as a second-rounder who failed to sign with the Jays but he lost some luster as the 2018 draft approached with some fearing he’d develop into a future reliever. I still loved what I was seeing from him and he’s performed great in pro ball after sliding all the way to 18th overall to the Royals. He has a 2.13 ERA in 50. 2 innings in High-A ball. I definitely would not have regretted this pick, although the Giants did OK with Joey Bart, who’s been injured but effective when healthy.
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