I knew the final prediction result tally was going to be rough but it was worse than expected.
Note: I used the default league setting in our auction calculator to determine the final ranks.
1. Jung Ho Kang will be a top-10 starting third baseman by season’s end.
Whoa, not a good start. I’m not even sure if he was a top-10 third baseman on his own team.
It was close (Berrios at #35) but all four didn’t finish in the top-30. I just wasn’t buying into the preseason hype on them compared to other pitchers. Most had great ERA’s late in the 2018 season but it was luck-based.
1 for 2
Injuries sank and Senzel and Guerrero sank Guerrero. As I noted in my league recap, I still find rookies to be a great investment, but like closers, I’m not going top tier but maybe the second or third tier from now on.
1 for 3
4. Kris Bryant will not be a top-50 hitter.
Damn, I was close. He snuck in at 48th overall. He just doesn’t have a useful fantasy skillset (about 30 HRs, 185 R+RBI, 5 SB). At least he’s been able to keep his batting average up (~.280)
1 for 4
5. Ross Stripling will be the Dodgers’ most valuable starter.
Horrible take on my part even though I would have never guessed that Hyun-Jin Ryu would be the top arm.
1 for 5
It just does pay to get the top closers. Go for that second tier. Hand was the closest at #13. I guess not that close.
2 for 6
7. José Altuve will be the top fantasy hitter.
Going back to the original article, I took a ton of heat for this take since I wrote a completely opposite take in Altuve’s player preview. I should have followed my well-researched advice instead of the 7th thing that popped into my mind when flying back from Vegas.
2 for 7
8. Shohei Ohtani will not steal a base.
12 > 0. I thought the team would protect Ohtani’s elbow and not have him steal much. I was wrong but my lack of confidence in the Angels keeping their pitchers healthy was confirmed.
2 for 8
9. Whit Merrifield will lead the American League in steals.
He ended up 11th. I had little faith in the top speedsters getting on base (most didn’t). I just didn’t predict Merrifield was going to see his stolen bases drop from 45 to 20. Note to self, don’t bet on a 30-year-old leading the league in steals.
2 for 9
10. Danny Jansen will be a top-two catcher.
He tried to recover mid-season with an OPS over .800 in August but a horrible start and end to the season put him at a 30th overall.
2 for 10
So a .200 AVG from this season. I guess I have to accept being Rougned Odor.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.