With people already participating in 2020 drafts, I thought it was time to see where and if any positional tiers exist. I don’t believe in making up a tier where a dropoff doesn’t exist. I’m more looking for spots where for two or more rounds, a position should not even be in consideration to be drafted. Also, is there a point where the position just falls off and no one decent is left?

To set up the tiers, I used this 15-team Roto setup and our Depth Chart projections. I know everyone won’t agree with all the projections. I don’t, but they’ll provide a nice guideline for this discussion. It’s time to start with catchers.

Catcher

Tiers

• Tier 1. It’s four options and then wait.
• Tier 2. The rest of the options are evenly spaced until the end.

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In a shocking free agent move, the Chicago White Sox have signed Yasmani Grandal to a 4-year, $73 million-dollar deal. Several teams were said to be in on Grandal as he was not only the best catcher available this offseason, but also one of the very best catchers in all of baseball. After showing some flashes with San Diego, Grandal broke out with the Dodgers and wound up with a healthy 116 wRC+ over his four seasons in LA.

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11/21/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Chris Martin re-signs in ATL (2:40)
• Jose De Leon traded to CIN (7:25)
• Greg Bird, Jharel Cotton, Matt Duffy, Wei-Yin Chen DFA’d (11:11)

PITCHERLIST MOCK REVIEW

• Justin’s Top 11 (29:27)

BREAKING NEWS!

• Yasmani Grandal signs with CWS (44:16)

—

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions.

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Approximately 56 minutes of joyous analysis.

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Everyone likes finding the next big thing in fantasy baseball and cashing in, but sometimes the best pickup is buying back in on a player coming off a down season in hopes of a return to previously established levels of production or reach new heights hinted at by their prospect status and minor league production. Here is a group of players I’m buying late:

1B: Luke Voit | 17th at position, 169th pick

Voit only played 47 games in 2018, but he posted a nice 1.069 OPS with 15 HR and 36 RBI across 161 PA. His move to New York seemed to spur a breakthrough that many were hoping he could build upon in 2019. A sports hernia made that tough, though, costing him time in both July and August and likely playing a role in his .673 OPS during September. Before the injury it was looking like he was going to turn his 2018 into a full-scale breakout as he hit .280/.393/.509 with 17 HR through June (78 games). Overall, he still posted a solid 126 wRC+. Assuming he recovers in the offseason, he should get back on track in 2020 and I could see a .270 AVG, 30 HR, 100 RBI, and 100 R.

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Today’s “news” is a combination of recent and old. Some of the information was reported over a month ago, but with little to nothing happening in the game, it still relevant.

• Trea Turner had surgery on his index finger and should be 100% by the start of spring training.

According to his Instagram, Trea Turner had surgery on his index finger, which is not a surprise since it never healed during the season.

(H/t @hansonlee75) pic.twitter.com/STh2ytuT9X

— Todd Dybas (@Todd_Dybas) November 16, 2019

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For each of the previous installments of this series, where I have compared the 2019 seasons of two players on different trajectories who achieved similar Roto value, I have run a poll. The assumption behind the polls is that the two players could be similarly valued for 2020. I’ve used the polls to get a pulse on which player would be viewed as the better fantasy performer — the one on the upswing or the one who just had a “down” year?

In comparing Jorge Soler and J.D. Martinez, whose 5×5 Roto values were separated by one-tenth of a dollar, there is no mystery as to which player will be targeted earlier on draft day. In the #2EarlyMocks, Martinez ranked seventh among outfielders with an 18.6 ADP, while Soler ranked 30th with a 97.3 ADP. In the recently-completed Pitcher List Experts Mock that I participated in, Martinez was the 20th player chosen overall, and Soler stayed on the board until the 73rd pick. Soler may have slightly outearned Martinez this year, but the Red Sox outfielder/DH has had success for so much longer that it is not at all surprising that fantasy owners would not view them as equivalent.
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For the second year in a row, I was asked to participate in the Pitcher List’s early mock draft. It’s not a 2 Early Mock , but just early enough. This year had a great group of participants in three drafts. You can find all the draft boards here:

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11/19/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host

NOTES ON TOP 50s

• Brandon Woodruff: excellent fastball, trusted as a workhorse before injury, 3.35 career FIP
• Max Fried: added slider, improved velo and control, GB lean
• Zac Gallen: 4-pitch mix, big swing-and-miss, career-long HR suppression
• Frankie Montas: premium velo, paired 2015-17 K% w/2018 BB%, new splitter, HR suppression
• Jesus Luzardo: elite prospect w/great K upside, strong 3-pitch mix, could face IP limitation

THE NEXT BIG PITCHER

• Joe Musgrove (5:00)
• Dylan Cease (6:25)
• Michael Kopech (12:24)
• Jose Urquidy (16:30)
• Griffin Canning (20:28)
• Sandy Alcantara (23:12)

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This Astros article will not talk about sign stealing. You’re welcome.

Continuing the series I started last week, let’s take a closer look at the World Series runner up!

OTHER TEAMS:

• Pittsburgh Pirates
• Seattle Mariners

3 QUESTIONS

Can Justin Verlander continue to hold up at age-37?

While Verlander has gone as one of the top starters throughout the early 2020 drafts, there is always a tinge of trepidation because of his age. But should we be worried? It’s hard to say yes. I understand that anyone age-35 or older carries a bit more injury risk, but outside of his age there is nothing in Verlander’s profile that should cause panic. Not even the homers. I mean his 1.5 HR/9 mark was high, but he allowed so few base runners that it didn’t really matter. His ERA went up 0.06 from 2018.

Arguably the biggest effect of the 2019 ball was the number of opposite field home runs that carried out and no one was affect more than Verlander. His 9 oppo tacos tied him for the league lead with Shane Bieber, Noah Syndergaard, Yusei Kikuchi, and his teammate Wade Miley. Even with those homers, his .360 wOBA to the opposite field was still easily the lowest of that group (Bieber was second at .379). The rest of his profile was elite. Don’t sweat the age, draft the reigning Cy Young winner.

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