Friday Afternoon Fantasy Chat

12:01
ūüôā: Jorge Polanco and Nico Hoerner for Manny Machado…. which side do you like?

12:02
Jeff Zimmerman: Without any more context, the Polanco side. At this point Polanco and Machado are nearly a wash so might as well add Hoerner.

12:03
Slam and legs: how do you feel about Ketel Marte next year? Obviously not a top 10 offensive player but maybe top 25?

12:04
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m probably closer to top-60 to 75. A fourth or fifth rounder in a 15 teamer. I know others won’t agree

12:05
Jeff Zimmerman: Currently 41st in NFBC ADP

12:05

12:05
Dusty: Jeff, please let me ask you a question. What do you think of Wander Javier? What is his upside?

12:06
Jeff Zimmerman: KBO

12:06
CubFan: With Evan White signing a long term deal even before he’s played a MLB game does this spell the end for Vogelbach or does he become their full time DH?

12:07
Jeff Zimmerman: I think he’s the 1B/DH to start the season with a very short leash. He seems like someone the Rays would try to pick up

12:07
Darin : Who do you like better for a 15 team roto league.  Lamet or a top prospect like Howard or Gilbert.  I have a $1 free agent opening

12:08
Jeff Zimmerman: Lamet but I’m whore for K’s and that 13 K/9 is sexy

12:08
twinmh: How much does this deal move Evan White up your draft boards?  Vote of confidence from the team that knows him best, plus removes service time considerations as a roadblock to promotion.

12:09
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m interested but I don’t want to count on him this season. Reserve round pick

12:09
Three Finger Brown: Do you ding Severino next year for the shoulder or does the Yankees handling of the situation (keeping him out until Sept) make you feel confident that there will be no ill affects?

12:10
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m scared some and like everyone else, we want to see him in Spring Training. He could really jump up draft boards if nothing appears wrong

12:10
PM: I know you have broadly covered this across articles this offseason but what do you think is the single biggest change in approach for you from 20189 to 2020

12:11
Jeff Zimmerman: For me, it’s quickly identifying talent changes and knowing the right amount to spend for it.

12:11
Peter: What’s your take on Andrew Heaney next year? HR issues keep him a 4 ERA guy?

12:11
Jeff Zimmerman: A 4.00 ERA is good.

12:12
Jeff Zimmerman: Only 48 pitchers with 120 innings had a 4.00 ERA

12:13
Jeff Zimmerman: Only 4 per team in a 12-teamer.

12:13
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s flyball prone and with a juiced ball he’ll gove up HR. Hell, Verlander did.

12:13
Robert: Realistic expectations for Ohtani 2020?

12:14
Jeff Zimmerman: Misses a few weeks. It’s been stated that he’ll start ST late if at all

12:14
Jeff Zimmerman: Hitting will be useless in 15-teamers.

12:15
Jeff Zimmerman: Just 22 starts

12:15
Jeff Zimmerman: Once a week after missing some time

12:15
Jeff Zimmerman: Great in daily moves.

12:16
Jean: Would you rather keep Lux or Addell at the same cost, keeper league?

12:16
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m higher on Adell

12:16
Wisco: Sorry if this is too long for chat. For NFBC contests with overall prizes that 600+ teams vie for, do you see an advantage in early drafting (i.e. getting in a slow draft now, instead of waiting until next march)? Seems like with more time between the draft and the season, there is more variability and your team could get screwed with attrition, but if you are in a league where you team luckily stays intact, and other teams lose players, it would in effect give your team the advantage in the overall pool from drafting players later that would be drafted earlier nearer to the season. To beat 600 other contestants it is good to be smart, but also not going to happen without luck and this would be an easy way to introduce luck/variability (at the risk of also having bad luck).

12:17
Jeff Zimmerman: I’ve thought about this and I think the best time is right after the Super Bowl or the last week of the season.

12:18
Jeff Zimmerman: All the football owners are itching for a draft and might not know the pool as well

12:18
Jeff Zimmerman: People who are doing the drafts now are die-hards and little will get past them.

12:18
DBRuns: 3rd year Ottoneu league, team with 40/40 roster spots filled and $416 in cap used. Would you keep Robbie Ray at $17?

12:19
Jeff Zimmerman: I like the price. At least try to trade him.

12:19
8 Ball: Do you think Chris Bassitt can manage 165+ innings with an average-ish ERA/FIP?  Looking for some under the radar inning eaters in points format.

12:20
Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe. I’m a little worried he may get pushed out into long relief. Don’t pay much so cost to cut is minimal.

12:21
Hi Jeff: I’m in a 16 tm keep forever dynasty (6×6 H2H) and have won the championship in back to back years. I have a huge hole at 2B (Shed Long for now, Brujan a couple years away) and have the opportunity to trade away Bellinger and Flaherty for Gleyber and Bryce. I’m thinking no, but I do discount pitching in dynasty and I like the idea of shoring up my 2B spot. For pitching I also have Verlander, Strasburg, Morton, Wheeler, and Darvish. What do you think? Thanks for the help!

12:22
Jeff Zimmerman: I think I’d do it with all the other pitching options for this year. I would be trying to find some younger SP options.

12:22
Chris: Jeff, really enjoyed your presentation at FPAZ!¬†¬†I’m thinking about getting into the NFBC next season for the first time.¬†¬†What advice would you have for how to do offseason prep for that format?

12:25
Jeff Zimmerman: Thanks. It’s tough to prep. It’s just different in that the people are damn good. One intro format I like is the15-team $250 Main Event Qualifier. Decent prizes for top 3 and get used to the format. I don’t change my prep, it’s the same for all my leagues.

12:25
Tony: Flaherty or Machado. Roto, 12 teams

12:26
Jeff Zimmerman: Flaherty for me and right now it’s not close

12:26
BERTO!!: Thanks for the chat. I was hoping to get your opinion on ranking some pitchers for Dynasty purposes. May, Gore, Paddack, Mize, Kpopech, Pearson

12:27
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not the person to as on this subject. I’ve moved away from dynasty leagues.

12:27
diadem: Does Dakota Hudson’s success rely on having a top 5 defensive infield behind him and will STL have that for him?

12:28
Jeff Zimmerman: Hudson will be on many bust lists and deserves it. The IF D is not going to hold up.

12:29
Fred: Where has it been stated that Ohtani will start ST late?  Every recent update from the Angels has said he would be ready to go by Spring Training

12:29
Jeff Zimmerman: Ohtani remains on track to finish his throwing program in mid-December, but the Angels haven’t said whether he’ll be ready to start the season.

Eppler also wouldn’t commit to the Angels using a six-man rotation with Ohtani, although it appears likely they would need spot starters at the very least with Ohtani expected to pitch roughly once a week and serve as the designated hitter three to four times a week.

12:29
brad: who are some buy low guys for 2020, hitter and P.  I am thinking Voit, Andujar, Ozuna, SP wheeler, bundy

12:30
Jeff Zimmerman: Voit and Andujar will likely not have jobs. Pass on them

12:30
Jeff Zimmerman: Ozuna I like depending on where he signs.

12:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Wheeler will depend on destination. Bundy has made some nice changes but still pitches in Baltimore.

12:31
balls in play: Do you see J Gray actually getting moved and improving his value?

12:31
Jeff Zimmerman: No to start the season, maybe at the trade deadline. Any trade would increase his value.

12:32
Trade Help: The money being about the same in a 12 team FGpts league, would you rather have the trio of Trout, Ryu, Sean Newcomb or Gerritt Cole, Rhys Hoskins, and Benintendi.

12:33
Jeff Zimmerman: That’s close but I’ll lean Trout’s side. I’ll take the side of hitting and I don’t trust the other two hitters at all

12:33
RH: For ranking, how high does a player like Rhys Hoskins get moved up in OBP leagues instead of using AVG?

12:34
Jeff Zimmerman: It’s quite a bit.

12:34
Jeff Zimmerman: You can see the difference with our trade calculator: https://www.fangraphs.com/auctiontool.aspx

12:34
Jeff Zimmerman: Auction calculator

12:34
Jeff Zimmerman: Just change AVG to OBP

12:34
balls in play: Fraley and Lewis look like they might be able to play in the majors, who does Seattle move or who do they start?

12:36
Jeff Zimmerman: Seattles OF is such a mess right now. There are 6-7 reasonable options. I hope trader Jerry gets busy. I’ll just ignore for now.

12:36
Mike: Thoughts on Vlad and Eloy next year?

12:36
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m in at the right price.

12:37
Jeff Zimmerman: In NFBC, Vlad is going at 48th and Eloy at 58th. They aren’t going to be cheap

12:37
Best Ball: Do you play best ball?  What adjustments do you make vs actively managed / what kind of roster do you like to build?

12:38
Jeff Zimmerman: I play at FanTrax and have not really concentrated on it. I play the $10 game and use it as a Mock draft for Roto. While not perfect, at least most owners stay active for the draft.

12:39
Jeff Zimmerman: It’s worth the $10 for me.

12:39
Jeff Zimmerman: It’s on my list to actually try.

12:39
Walt: Ottoneu 5×5: $26 Albies for $18 Luis Castillo and $3 Graterol.

12:39
Jeff Zimmerman: Seems fair

12:40
Edwin: In a keep-4 standard 5×5 12-teamer, am I nuts to consider keeping Vlad over Rendon?

12:40
Jeff Zimmerman: If forever, no. Maybe try for a trade to upgrade

12:40
stever20: what do you think of the impact of Grandal with regards to the White Sox pitchers?

12:41
Jeff Zimmerman: Little for each one. While the overall effect will be decent, once it’s divided up among all the pitchers, it’s not much. A tie-breaker

12:41
Metdaddie: C. Seager or Hoskins H2H? Position not a factor.

12:41
Jeff Zimmerman: Seager but I could easily be wrong

12:41
balls in play: Verlander for 28 or Severino for 32

12:42
Jeff Zimmerman: Verlander

12:42
John: My $9 Adell (5 year deal) and $11 Robert (5 year deal) for $2 Yelich (5 year deal)?

12:42
Jeff Zimmerman: Yelich

12:42
Bill: You really don’t think Voit will have a job? Who takes his place?

12:43
Jeff Zimmerman: DJ, first Voit is out to start the season. Even Ford is getting consideration.

12:43
Jeff Zimmerman: Ford is in position to take advantage of the uncertainty surrounding both Bird and Voit, as Bird’s injury history makes him a non-tender candidate and Voit will be returning from core surgery that impacted his second half. Assuming another first-base candidate is not added and LeMahieu takes the majority of his reps at second base, Ford should get regular at-bats early in the spring as Voit is eased into action.

12:44
Dave: Jeff, What roles do you see Gonsolin and Puk playing in 2020?  Thanks

12:44
Jeff Zimmerman: Gonsolin will do it all. Minors, IL, bullpen, start. It’s the Dodgers.

12:45
Jeff Zimmerman: Puk will start full-time once/if he gets the call.

12:46
ce90: Thanks for the chat. Do you think Kwang-Hyun Kim could be a fantasy option next year?

12:46
Jeff Zimmerman: He should. I’m just going to wait to see who he signs with.

12:46
big structural butthorns: Danny Santana this good again next year?

12:47
Jeff Zimmerman: There should be a Vegas bet on this question.

12:47
Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, but I could see a scenario where he is traded.

12:47
Snowy: Think Machado bounces back this year?

12:48
Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure at all. I’m paying for 2019 and praying for something better

12:48
Scooter: Hi Jeff РHow would you rank these three catchers based on expected production and certainty of playing time: Will Smith, Narvaez, Sean Murphy?  btw in the early ADP rankings Smith is on top.

12:49
Jeff Zimmerman: You have them in the order and I could make a case for Narvaez being #1

12:49
JuanTeixeiraBeer: Any chance we see Sale to the Padres in a Wil Myers swap?

12:50
Jeff Zimmerman: Why in the hell would the Red Sox want Wil Myers? 0% chance

12:50
Sebastian: Verdugo: top 30 OF?

12:50
Jeff Zimmerman: No, he needs playing time to be that high.

12:50
Jeff Zimmerman: Heads up, the questions are running out so ask away or I’ll shut down the chat.

12:51
brad: IF DJ is at 1B, who plays 2B with torres at SS, they are NOT bringing Didi back for sure…

12:52
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m just passing on the news as I read it. I’m not here for IF…THEN… ELSE rumors

12:52
Indians Fan: Scoresheet league.  Are either Plesac or Civale keeper worthy.  I have a decent enough offense, very short on SPs.

12:52
Jeff Zimmerman: Civale, yes

12:53
CC: Schwarber a 5×5 asset next year? The final numbers didn’t end up looking too bad

12:53
Jeff Zimmerman: It was nice that he played every day. I was wrong about him coming into the season

12:53
Walt: Expectations for Daniel Murphy? In a 5×5 Ottoneu, is he a keeper at $13?

12:54
Jeff Zimmerman: None but I could see him be a top-15 player if everything clicks.

12:54
Jeff Zimmerman: Is someone going to pay $13 in the auction?

12:54
Jeff Zimmerman: I betting no, let him go.

12:54
Indians Fan: Will Andrew Benintendi bounce back i 2020?

12:55
Jeff Zimmerman: To what?

12:55
Jeff Zimmerman: 20/20 and 270?

12:56
Jeff Zimmerman: Sure but I think that is his upside.

12:56
stever20: Vlad Jr.  where does he go in 12 team h2h league next year?

12:56
Jeff Zimmerman: 37th to 50th. 4th or 5th round

12:57
Grasul: Discounting Speed to “normal baseball” levels and including defense, what hitter would you pay fair price for today expecting more for three years?

12:57
Jeff Zimmerman: Eloy for sure. Let me think.

12:58
Jeff Zimmerman: I think if Ohtani gives up pitching, he could go off.

12:58
Jeff Zimmerman: Senzel if he can stay healthy

12:59
Jay: How much are you buying the news that Urías will have a spot in the LAD rotation? Any post hype-hype here?

12:59
Jeff Zimmerman: When pitching, he good. Really good. He just has to stay healthy and out fo trouble.

1:00
Jeff Zimmerman: I just have problems trusting the Dodgers

1:00
Indians Fan: Thoughts on Sean Manaea in 2020?

1:01
Jeff Zimmerman: I am probably the lowest person you’ll see on Manaea. I’m out and have been since college. I don’t like pitchers who pivot mid-delivery.

1:01
J-le: I have Soler as my only RF in a dynasty keep forever with VERY shallow FA pools. How aggressive should I be in looking for a backup? Try to swing a trade or just hope something shakes out later?

1:02
Jeff Zimmerman: I’d put out you are looking for one but see what happen. Maybe one of the Japanesse signings will qualify in RF

1:02
stever20: What are your expectations for Sale in 2020?

1:03
Jeff Zimmerman: Realy hight. He could be the best player in the league and I’d not be suprised one bit

1:03
Bubba: Do you see Nola bouncing back?

1:03
Jeff Zimmerman: Not really. I believe in 2019 more than 2018

1:04
Indians Fan: Not that I care for the Yankees, but who do you think ends up with the majority of PT at 3B?

1:04
Jeff Zimmerman: Urshela. I’t mentioned in the article I linked above

1:04
Dave: Does Senzel have a better chance of playing CF or 2B in 2020?

1:05
Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know. I read somewhere that the team can look to add at either spot and then move him then.

1:06
Danny Kugler: Mariners sign Evan White. Kiley McDaniel has an interesting write up on what White potentially gave up to sign this early.  I kind of agree but wondered what you thought?

1:06
Jeff Zimmerman: I haven’t run the numbers but It could be a lot. The player and the agent might have been needing cash

1:07
Hosmer: Shun Yamaguchi,  Kwang-Hyun Kim or Merrill Kelly?

1:08
Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure. I asked Dan about MLE’s and nothing yet

1:08
balls in play: Did Hampson show enough at the end to pick up more PT?

1:08
Jeff Zimmerman: Yes but did the Rockies notice, probably not

1:09
JuanTeixeiraBeer: Money Dump.¬†¬†Trading Sale would save them 70-80 mil.¬†¬†I can’t imagine Moreland playing 1B next year for the Sox.

1:10
Jeff Zimmerman: But for Wil Myers? That trade is ridiculous.

1:10
balls in play: Josh James window for being SP closing?

1:10
Jeff Zimmerman: Yes with the Astros. I’d like to see him get another chance.

1:11
Rodrigo: Who is your favurite sleper Catcher this year???

1:11
Jeff Zimmerman: Don’t forget Perez is coming back

1:12
Wisco: I guess my question was more related to injury. Let’s say you draft now, and next February trout gets injured for the year. Screws the team that drafted trout but basically all the other teams essentially have picks that are 1 pick better than a comparable team drafting after trout’s injury.

1:13
Jeff Zimmerman: A little but gambling on something I have no control over. Against good owners. I’d rather go against uninformed owners and hope for the same luck in ealry Feb.

1:15
Mr. Fister: Kudos to Evan White for setting himself up for life.¬†¬†Lay folk like us only dream of making that type of money, so all of the people who are bashing this guy can sit down.¬†¬†So what if he “might have” left money on the table.¬†¬†Maybe some people would prefer the guaranteed long-term financial security, especially those whose upside isn’t quite superstar level.¬†¬†Congrats to White and his family!

1:15
Jeff Zimmerman: There are two sides to every thing

1:16
stever20: what do you expect with KErshaw in 2020?  Was the last 6 weeks a mirage, or a longer term sign for him?

1:16
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m in at the right price.

1:17
Jeff Zimmerman: Even with the hits against him, his lowest IP total was 149.

1:17
Trent: Have any of the FA signings so far notably changed your thoughts on the signed player’s fantasy value?

1:18
Jeff Zimmerman: The Atlanta bullpen is a mess to figure out. Smith is not even a lock for 10 Saves at this point.

1:18
Mr. Fister: Clevinger will be the best SP in fantasy in 2020, write it down!

1:18
Jeff Zimmerman: Down

1:19
Nick: Do you think there will be any player suspensions for the Astros’ sign stealing?¬†¬†Presumably we would know about any suspensions well before draft day, but they would seem to have obvious fantasy consequences.

1:20
Jeff Zimmerman: Not players this year until they really nail some one.

1:21
stever20: what’s the right price though??¬†¬†he’s a top ??? pitcher now

1:21
Jeff Zimmerman: 15 at least, probably higher.

1:22
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s going 17 in NFBC right now

1:22
Jeff Zimmerman: 17th starter

1:23
Mr. Fister: Is Neris a hold in fantasy?¬†¬†Not sure if he’ll still have a job, but he was really good last year.

1:23
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s probably a top-15 closer right now. Probably worth keeping closers are kept

1:24
PJ: The new blurb on Seth Beer sounds suspiciously like the same one written after Yordan Alvarez before he went ham. Can you go into more detail about the concerns?

1:24
Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry, but ask a prospect person on Beer

1:24
Nolan: Will we see any trades this off season with big AL- or NL-only consequences?  E.g., Lindor to the Dodgers, Bryant to the Angels, etc.?

1:25
Jeff Zimmerman: There always is and once they happen, we’ll analyze them

1:25
Maxwell: Are there any lesser known relief pitchers out there that could be getting saves in 2020?

1:26
Jeff Zimmerman: Follow the Giants and Marlins for possible guys. I pretty much ignore bullpens until Feb 1st. They change so much

1:26
Logan: Are there any pitchers coming back from TJ or similar surgery who should be on my radar this year?

1:26
Jeff Zimmerman: Cueto, Lamet, Ohtani

1:27
Nick: Suppose Lindor *is* traded; who plays SS for Cleveland?

1:27
Jeff Zimmerman: Seager

1:27
Jay: Just traded Jose de Leon for Bobby Bradley.

1:27
Jeff Zimmerman: Blockbuster

1:27
stever20: McCullers Jr. as well.

1:29
stever20: how can Kershaw be a top 15-17 starter now, when last year he was only #29?  Year before #22?

1:29
Jeff Zimmerman: He was 11th

1:30
Thanks for the chat!: Can you write some articles about how all the assets I’m trying to trade are “sleepers” and a few on how the players I’m targeting are due for “regression”? Would really help me out. Please and Thank you!

1:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Ryan O’Hearn is a SLEEPER candidate while Peter Alonso is due for some heavy REGRESSION..

1:31
Mr. Fister: Taijuan Walker as well

1:31
Johns: Is Cody Bellinger more 2011 Jacoby Ellsbury or 2018 Christian Yelich?

1:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Neither. More JD Martinez.

1:32
Daniel: Noticed a lot of people are saying Lamet has multiple breaking balls and no TTTOP. But others are saying he’s just a 2-pitch pitcher. Where do you stand?

1:32
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m two-pitch but he can still be good with them.

1:33
bleep bloop: 12 team 6×6 w ops and k/9 as the added cats. 4 keepers, i already locked trout and freeman. who would you choose for final 2 out of soto, judge, vlad jr, sale, bieber?

1:33
Jeff Zimmerman: Soto (easy) and …

1:33
Jeff Zimmerman: Vlad or Judge

1:34
Buff: Similar PT forecast for May as for Gonsolin, or more likely to stay up and start?

1:34
Jeff Zimmerman: Yes.

1:34
Greene: With Lynn and Minor both having surprisingly good years last season, are you giving any added attention to other members of the Rangers staff?

1:35
Jeff Zimmerman: Not really.

1:35
Jeff Zimmerman: Minor and Lynn showed glimpes in the past of being good. No one else on the staff has.

1:36
Ryan: Using the Auction Calculator you linked earlier with the 2020 Steamer projections, Lamet comes in at 17th among starters.  Too aggressive?

1:36
Jeff Zimmerman: It matches the projection but I’m not sold on the K’s and IP.

1:37
stever20: Wasn’t Kershaw last year being #11 a lot due to 16 wins?¬†¬†(i was looking at raw ratings, which is fair).¬†¬†Something that you can’t easily count on?

1:38
Jeff Zimmerman: While Wins are fickle, he’s projected for 15 in 32 starts. With the Dodgers. Taht seems fine. He got 18 Wins in 27 starts once. Hell, 21 Wins in 27 starts

1:38
Jeff Zimmerman: Kershaw is good

1:38
Roger: Will Travis d’Arnaud get enough PT to be a number 1 catcher?¬†¬†Or does it just depend on where he lands?

1:39
Jeff Zimmerman: I think he’ll be a #1 so 400PA seems fine.

1:40
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m done for the afternoon. Hopefully, I can get back to my normal Monday slot. -Jeff

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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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stever20
Member
Member
stever20

ah yes, the Kershaw projection….. 32 starts and 204 innings…. Considering last 6 years, he’s made more than 28 starts once, or thrown more than 178 innings not in the last 4 years- do not think those numbers are reasonable in the least. By the projections, Kershaw is the #8 pitcher in MLB in 2020….. Does anyone (even the Dodgers) really expect that???

cleister17
Member
cleister17

Quite the hill to die on

stever20
Member
Member
stever20

do you think Kershaw is the 8th best pitcher in MLB for 2020? Do you think he’s going to make 32 starts and throw over 200 innings?

I get how good Kershaw was, but I don’t think he’s close to that now. Maybe fantasy he was #11 last year- but that a lot due to 16 wins….

stonepie
Member
stonepie

not sure why you’re being downvoted, id take the under on both of those in a bet easily