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Week 14 FAAB Projections

I thought it was going to be a slow week for bidding, but a few pitchers have seen their ownership jump quite a bit. Also, there is some movement with a couple of closers going down with injuries.

The projection guidelines:

  • The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
  • The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
  • The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
  • Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.
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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 708 – Fireside Chat: Gone Fishin’ & A Bombshell!

6/21/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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FIRESIDE CHAT

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 707 – Chatting with Ariel Cohen

6/21/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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PITCHERS

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The Stash List – Deep Dive Edition

Hey y’all.  This weeks stash list should be a pretty good one for all of you who play in pretty deep dynasty leagues.  Three of the four guys were drafted in the eleventh round or later of there respective drafts.  All four of the guys are in the lower levels of the minor leagues, A or A+ ball.  We have a masher that is not an average killer, a speedster that is not just stolen base asset, and two control pitchers with strikeout upside.

Michael Gigliotti – (KC A+) OF Age 23 ETA 2021

In the fourth round of the 2017 draft, the Royals picked Michael Gigliotti out of Lipscomb University.  After being drafted the Royals sent him to Rookie ball and played extremely well. After posting a .329 AVG, .442 OBP, 3 home runs, and 15 stolen bases, the Royals rewarded his efforts with a promotion to A ball at the end of the season.  In only played in 22 games, but still posted an above .300 average, above .350 OBP and seven stolen bags. Unfortunately, he missed almost all of the 2018 season with a torn ACL in his knee. Gigliotti began the 2019 season back in A ball and is pounding at the door for a promotion (In fact, he was just promoted to A+ on June 20!).

In 59 games, he has a .309 AVG, .394 OBP, 1 home run, and 29 stolen bases.  You read that correctly, 29 stolen bases in 59 games and he have only been caught seven times. So it seems he has had no ill effects for the ACL injury. With the above-average hit tool and batting eye (9.7 BB% and 6.9 SwStk%), Gigliotti is one of those speedsters that can actually hit. I’m looking at you, Billy Hamilton. I would pick up Gigliotti to get in on the ground floor of this very interesting prospect.

Niko Hulsizer (LAD A) OF Age 22 ETA 2021

The Cubs drafted Niko Hulsizer in the eighteenth round of last year’s draft.  Hulsizer is one of those pure athlete types. The 6’2, 200 lb OF won the 2017 College World Series Home Run Derby and gave Morehead State their first Home Run Derby champion.  During the derby, he hit 52 long balls between the three rounds! His draft stock was hampered a bit his junior year due to a broken hand. After being drafted, the Dodgers sent him to Rookie ball where he smashed nine home runs and swiped an impressive 12 bags.  

Along with the taters and stolen bases, Hulsizer also can hit for a pretty decent average, especially for being a slugger type. He hit .281 AVG and had a .426 OBP due to his 14.9 BB%. The Dodgers assigned Hulsizer to A ball to begin the season and he is performing well.  He has smacked 15 home runs and swiped 4 bags to go along with a .268 AVG and .395 OBP. Hulsizer will probably always struggle with the strikeouts but that power is glorious. I’d take a flyer on him in dynasty for sure.

Ljay Newsome(SEA A+) RHP Age 22 ETA 2021

In the 26th round of the 2015 draft, Ljay Newsome finally received a phone call from a major league team.  He lasted to the 26th round mainly due to his stuff. He is a 5’11 righty with a mid to upper eighties fastball.  Not the sexiest pitcher profile for sure. Over the years, he has moved up a level each year and nothing in the profile drastically changed.  That is until this year. After going to a throwing program in the offseason that focused on mechanics and velocity, Newsome is having a career year.  

In 77 innings in A+, Newsome has racked up 103 strikeouts and only 8 walks. He has an ERA of 3.51 and a WHIP of 1.16 with a SwStk% of 14.3% and a BB% of 2.6%.  In fact, in a recent start, he threw 77 for of 94 pitches for strikes. For those not quick with math, that is an 81.9% strike percentage! I know Newsome is repeating and is also old for the level but this is amazing stuff.  I’d jump on board the Newsome train in deeper dynasty leagues.

Brett Conine – (HOU A+) RHP Age 22 ETA 2021

The Astros picked Brett Conine in the eleventh round of last years draft and it might be another win for the Astros organization.  After being drafted Cal State Fullerton, the Astros assigned him to low A. In 31 innings, he struck out 37 batters while walking eleven for an ERA of 1.99 and WHIP of 1.07.  He was assigned to A ball to begin the season and in 33 innings he racked up 40 punchies while walking six batters. The Astros rewarded him with a promotion to A+ and he actually got better!  

In his 27 innings in A+, he has an ERA of 1.65, a WHIP of .95, 42 strikeouts and only four walks. While doing some research on this post, I was not able to find much on him. He was not on any of the top prospect lists.  I expect that to change very shortly. For dynasty, I would keep my eye on Conine because the Astros might have found something in the mid rounds of the draft.


AL Lineup Analysis

Angels

  • Justin Upton is back and has slotted in the cleanup spot. Normally, the cleanup spot has been reserved for Albert Pujols so some kinks need to still be worked out.
  • Tommy La Stella’s spirit has returned to reclaim his body from Babe Ruth and has hit .200/.238/.425 over the past two weeks.
  • Luis Rengifo (.649) will likely head to the minors once Andrelton Simmons returns from the IL. He’ll probably not be missed.
  • I didn’t expect Shohei Ohtani to steal much to protect his elbow but he does have three steals in his last eight games.

Astros

  • The lineup is in flux with Jose Altuve returning from the IL and the last three games being in an NL park with the pitcher batting.
  • Altuve hit third in the lineup in his first game back.
  • Tyler White has heated up ( .310/.474/.586) over the last two weeks. When Carlos Correa returns, it’ll be interesting to see if White (.695 OPS) or Yuli Gurriel (.593 OPS) will take over the first base duties.

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Planning Ahead with Pitching (Jun. 24-Jul. 7)

Looking at team batting performance by handedness to identify some potential pitching pickups to exploit the matchups. This is using a probable starter schedule from June 24th – July 7th. It is subject to change (obviously!) so stay tuned, especially with the later ones.

Worst offenses against righties all season through June 19th by wRC+:

  • Tigers – 74 wRC+
  • Marlins – 75
  • Giants – 77
  • Blue Jays – 78
  • Orioles – 81

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Who is Being Dropped and Why?

I’m been writing this column since the season’s start and today I ask, “What more should I change about its content?”. I’m sure everyone would like more of everything. More players. More on each player. More sources besides the NFBC. If I do more, what would you like to see less of? Just let me know.

As of the players listed below, they are the players dropped in 10 or more of the 38 NFBC Main Event leagues (a few extras added in).

Demotion

  • Derek Fisher (25): With Yordan Alvarez being promoted and the big three on the IL returning, there was no room for him in the majors.
  • Willians Astudillo (11): The fan-favorite can’t help his owners in the minors.
  • Brendan Rodgers (11): The highly touted prospect was demoted after only hitting .246/.300/.277 in the majors.
  • Cesar Puello (10): With Justin Upton returning from the IL, he expendable. And now on the Marlins.

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A Closer Look at Jordan Yamamoto

Jordan Yamamoto was ranked 23rd on the site’s 2019 Marlins prospect list, given a 40-grade future value as a potential backend starter. The right-hander, who came over in the Christian Yelich deal, was credited for his pitchability and depth of arsenal that would allow him to carve out a role in the backend of a rotation or as a multi-inning reliever. A 12th-round pick back in 2014, Yamamoto has put up a 26% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate, 3.75 ERA, and 1.24 WHIP in 463 innings. He put up a 3.58 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 14% K-BB in 12 starts at Double-A which earned him the call.

His prospect profile highlighted his four-pitch arsenal (FB, CB, SL, and CH), but may have sold him short as he’s also shown a cutter in his two MLB starts (though the CH has been relegated to a show-me pitch). The scouting report was AFL-focused as he threw 26 solid innings back in October/November so it was the freshest look at Yamamoto. His fastball was high-80s, with dips down to 86 mph, though there was a high end of 94 (not sure if that was done at AFL or during the 2018 season). This capped some of his upside per Eric and Kiley:

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Roto Riteup: June 19, 2019

How I would look in a Major League at bat:

 

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 706 – Sweet Swinging Hitters

6/1/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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SURGING BATS: LEGIT OR QUIT?

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed. Please rate & review the show in iTunes letting us know what you think!

Approximately 60 minutes of joyous analysis.