Using the current NFBC average draft data for their 50-round Draft & Hold leagues, I’m going to put together most of an offense going at 200 or later (2 catchers because I hate myself, an infield, and 2 OF). I guess it’s just a different way to identify some sleeper/later values that I like, but hey, let’s do it!

C1 – Omar Narváez, MIL | Pick 237

Among the 21 catchers with at least 650 PA the last two years, Narváez’s 120 wRC+ in 804 PA is 3rd behind only Mitch Garver (130 in 694 PA) and the guy he replaced, Yasmani Grandal (123 in 1150). He’s a brutal framer which could cut into his playing time a bit unless they have some plans to improve him, but I’d take 400 PA with 15 HR and a .277 AVG.

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12/12/19

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Gerrit Cole to NYY (2:30)
• Stephen Strasburg stays with WAS (7:00)
• Anthony Rendon to LAA (15:10)
• Tommy Pham & Jake Cronenworth/Hunter Renfroe & Xavier Edwards trade (21:50)
• Didi Gregorius to PHI (36:50)
• Nomar Mazara to CWS (41:14)

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Some team was going to end up with Anthony Rendon and after missing out on the Gerrit Cole sweepstakes, the Angels ponied up and signed Rendon. It’s a simple signing and here how the various players see their fantasy values change.

Anthony Rendon (down)

From 2016 to 2018, Rendon was about the same hitter with between 20 and 24 home runs, .270 to .308 AVG, and never breaking a 190 Runs+RBI. He just destroyed those numbers last season with 34 homers, a .319 AVG, and 243 Runs+RBIs. With nothing changing in his hitting profile (plate discipline and batted ball stats), the career season can be based on a little luck but mainly the happy fun ball which is back for another season.

The change in scenery factors seem to point to his value going down a bit. The park factors between Washington DC and Orange County are about the same. The division opponents are a mix of competitive and non-competitive teams. The biggest difference will be the lineup quality. Even with a DH, the Angels averaged 4.75 runs per game last season and the Nationals were at 5.4 runs per game. Even though the best player in baseball will be in the Angels lineup, it’s a huge downgrade for Rendon. While the juiced ball will keep his home runs up, the Runs+RBI total should be around 200 to 210 instead of 240.

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Gerrit Cole signed by NYY (9 years/$324 million dollars)

I’ll be honest, I was really hoping Cole would sign with the Angels but that’s only because I really want Mike Trout in the playoffs and that would’ve really helped. Brian Cashman has landed his white whale and the Evil Empire has returned with this incredible deal. This is unfathomable money and congratulations to Cole for securing the bag. Here’s the thing, he’s coming off a truly masterful season in 2019 meaning he can’t really go anywhere but down from this insane peak.

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Didi Gregorius signed by PHI (1 year/$14 million dollars)

Just like last offseason, the Phillies aren’t playing around. They’ve already addressed their pitching issues with a big five-year deal for Zack Wheeler and now they’ve got the last piece for their offense in place with the signing of Didi Gregorius. After César Hernández was non-tendered, we started to see rumors ramp up that they were interested in Gregorius. The one-year, $14 million dollar deal will install Gregorius at shortstop while moving Jean Segura to spot that Hernández’s departure opened up at 2B.

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Gred Gigerenzer (yes that’s his real name) has been a leading advocate on how to correctly measure and articulate risk. I’d highly recommend his book Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions, but today, I’m going to focus on some passages from another book of his, Calculated Risk, which focuses on risks in the medical profession. Some of the passages seem to resonate with me about the fantasy expert community, especially this question: what should be the intent and expectations of touts?

One point Gigerenzer hopes to get across is the difference between Risk and Uncertainty. For him, Risk is measurable such as pitcher X as a 40% chance of going on the IL based on his age and past injury history. Uncertainty involves values that can’t be (or aren’t) measured like player Y is going through a divorce so his production is down.
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… probably not, but anyone probably already guessed that considering Stephen Strasburg’s injury history. The answer isn’t that far off after digging through some historic comps. Only once in his 10-year career has he topped 200 innings (215 in 2014) and only over 180 one other time. He’s thrown under 160 innings six times in ten seasons. Another issue besides the limited innings is that he’s going to be on the wrong side of 30 where pitcher breakdown faster. It’s time to look a little deeper and see what innings total should be expected.

I need to start with some guidelines. First, I’m only going to examine pitchers who throw the 200 innings between their ages 28 and 32 seasons. Also, the pitcher needs to be considered a starter with at least half of their games as a starter (GS/G >= 0.5). Finally, I rode the fine line of using recent data and having enough samples. With pitchers recently throwing fewer innings, I only used pitchers from the past 10 seasons.
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Historically, I’ve “corrected” hitter projections to my own liking and every time I’ve backtested them to the actual results, my adjustments have failed miserably. So why create more work when the end results make my final product worse? Am I a glutton for punishment? In all fairness, I’m sure a heavy dose of Dunning-Kruger is going on but I also believe there may be a sweet spot where personal scouting can come into play. Today, I’m going back to the well one more time to see if some injured hitters should have more encouraging projections because they may have played hurt.

First, I’ve always thought playing through an injury meant that the team and the player were accepting suboptimal production. Then the player could come back healthy and full productive the next season.
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It’s so nice to have a winter that actually includes substantial movement before the new year. After a painfully slow last two years, we’ve been running a toasty hot stove this year and the Winter Meetings haven’t even kicked off yet (they start Sunday!).

Zack Wheeler signed by Philadelphia (5 years/$118 million dollars)

This is one of those interesting moves that causes a big splash on the national landscape, especially being a high-profile arm joining a new team in the same division, but it’s not quite as impactful in the fantasy realm. It’s a big deal for sure, but Wheeler’s fantasy outlook for 2020 isn’t greatly altered by the move. He moves to a worse park but gets a markedly better defense supporting him. Neither bullpen was particularly good in 2019 and I actually expect both to improve in 2020, so let’s call that neutral.

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