Who is Being Dropped and Why?
I’m been writing this column since the season’s start and today I ask, “What more should I change about its content?”. I’m sure everyone would like more of everything. More players. More on each player. More sources besides the NFBC. If I do more, what would you like to see less of? Just let me know.
As of the players listed below, they are the players dropped in 10 or more of the 38 NFBC Main Event leagues (a few extras added in).
Demotion
- Derek Fisher (25): With Yordan Alvarez being promoted and the big three on the IL returning, there was no room for him in the majors.
- Willians Astudillo (11): The fan-favorite can’t help his owners in the minors.
- Brendan Rodgers (11): The highly touted prospect was demoted after only hitting .246/.300/.277 in the majors.
- Cesar Puello (10): With Justin Upton returning from the IL, he expendable. And now on the Marlins.
Injury
- Jon Duplantier (22): After being jacked around all year from the rotation to the bullpen to the minors. I even think he was the bullpen catcher at one point. Now, he’s hurt.
- Jose Urena (22): He’s out at least 60 days and for a pitcher of his talent level, a drop seems appropriate.
- Kevin Gausman (11): Plantar fasciitis for a pitcher. Sadly, I’ll never spend any real resources on him again.
- Adam Wainwright (10): On the IL with a hamstring strain.
Other
- Jerad Eickhoff (27): He was recently demoted to the bullpen and has no value as a long reliever. He’s facing the combination of being a flyball pitcher (35% GB%$) in a home run prone home park with MLB using to the Happy Fun Ball.
- Albert Almora Jr. (17): With the signing of Carlos Gonzalez, he’s just not playing much (seven of last 15 games).
- Charlie Tilson (13): Last played on June 10th with Ryan Cordell (.202/.272/.316) getting six straight starts.
- Luis Rengifo (12): While Rengifo will never be a league average hitter, his owners expected more than a .634 OPS. They really expected more than one unsuccessful stolen base attempt.
- Ariel Jurado (12): His owners signed up for a two-start week at the Reds and Red Sox. They ended up with nine innings of a 10.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, and six strikeouts.
- Blake Parker (11): I dropped Parker in Tout Wars because I had three other closers and Parker seems to be getting fewer Saves. He’s struggled in June with a 10.29 ERA (10.45 FIP) and just one Save.
- Jason Vargas (11): A two-start week yielded a 4.50 ERA, 1.30, and seven strikeouts.
- Mitch Keller (11): While he’s been since demoted, he was struggling in his first two starts with a 15.43 ERA and 3.00 WHIP. His last start was better with two earned runs, six strikeouts, and two walks in five innings of work.
- Myles Straw (11): While he’s been hitting (.785 OPS), he’s not been starting (four of last 10 games). With the big three coming off the IL soon, he’s got nowhere to play.
- Mark Reynolds (10): Owners must have dreamed of a great week at Coors but it didn’t happen (.125/.273/.250 in 11 PA). He’s just not worth rostering since he’s started four of the last 29 games.
- Steve Cishek (10): With the signing of Craig Kimbrell and Pedro Strop off the IL, Cishek’s value is nil.
- Freddy Peralta (10): He’s been starting and relieving with 5.54 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Since hitters know that a fastball is coming, he has a 1.8 HR/9 and a .347 BABIP.
- A ton of hitters further down the list are just not playing close to every day but are productive (see Straw above). At this point in the season, It’s important to keep track of as many playing time situations as possible.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Not sure if you play ottoneu but they have pretty robust ads/drop data, may be helpful for those in keeper/dynasty leagues to do a similar recap? Maybe monthly due to the nature of the data
Maybe someone who plays those deeper leagues should do it. Prospect drops would be interesting.
Here is some R code to quickly show Ottoneu ownership numbers by position: https://pastebin.com/NFrauXea
I don’t think you need to increase the number of dropped players that you write about, for it’s likely it would be more of the same injury/demoted/loss of playing time as the others. However, perhaps there you could include an angle of predicting who might be picked up again soon, or who might be a mistake to drop if one has bench space.
I like this. Like a pickup chance.
Agreed. I liked this series at first, because I was hoping to get the occasional “This guy is being dropped, but you should consider grabbing him because….” out of it
I’m in a 16 team, 12 kpr. pts. league. Should I finally say goodbye to Grichuk? It was the stadium in which he plays half of his games that made me reluctant to drop him.
My other OFs are: Hicks, Laureano, Joc Pederson & Robles. Brandon Belt on the bench.
I think you need to go week to week on that group. None stick out.
Hey, thanks for the shout out!
I like this as is but I agree with the two options thrown out already: pickup chance and prospects being dropped.
Most of the high-number drops are very clear-cut, hardly worth discussing. I like looking at the guys being dropped in just a handful (5-10) leagues, who are highly owned. So if you could add a column for Ownership %….
That would give a quick & dirty look at guys who are highly owned, but owners are getting fed up. These guys would either be 1) on their way to being dropped in more leagues, or 2) buy-low trade targets.
Rengifo, first 18 games OPS .551, last 18 games OPS .738. He is only 22, has a great eye at the plate and is getting better as time goes by. To say he will never be a league avg hitter is little premature, IMO.