Planning Ahead with Pitching (Jun. 24-Jul. 7)
Looking at team batting performance by handedness to identify some potential pitching pickups to exploit the matchups. This is using a probable starter schedule from June 24th – July 7th. It is subject to change (obviously!) so stay tuned, especially with the later ones.
Worst offenses against righties all season through June 19th by wRC+:
- Tigers – 74 wRC+
- Marlins – 75
- Giants – 77
- Blue Jays – 78
- Orioles – 81
Worst offenses against righties in L30 days through June 19th:
- Cardinals – 69 wRC+
- Giants – 75
- Orioles – 76
- Royals – 78
- Phillies – 81
Highest strikeout rates against righties:
- Tigers/Padres/White Sox – 26%
- Brewers/Blue Jays/Marlins/Rangers/Mariners – 25%
Righties to consider for June 24th-July 7th (schedules subject to change, of course):
- Anibal Sanchez at DET (Jun. 27), v. MIA (Jul. 4)
- Dakota Hudson at SD (Jun. 29), at SF (Jul. 6)
- Cal Quantrill at BAL (Jun. 25), SF (Jul. 1)
- Kyle Gibson at CWS (Jun. 30)
- Zach Plesac at BAL (Jun. 29)
- Michael Pineda at CWS (Jun. 29)
- Vince Velasquez at MIA (Jun. 28)
- Jeff Hoffman at SF (Jun. 25)
- Chris Bassitt at STL (Jun. 25)
- Erick Fedde at DET (Jun. 30), v. KC (Jul. 6)
- Homer Bailey at TOR (Jun. 29)
- Brad Keller at TOR (Jun. 30)
Notes:
Sanchez has found his groove of late with a 1.54 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and 18% K-BB in 23.3 innings. The schedule sets up nicely for him to stay hot over the next two weeks, too.
Hudson’s 5% K-BB is ugly, but he’s maintained a 3.55 ERA thanks in large part to his huge 61% groundball rate. His 1.53 WHIP makes him suspect and unlikely to maintain such a solid ERA without more Ks and/or fewer BBs, but a West Coast trip to San Diego and San Francisco is tough to pass up.
Quantrill had solid back-to-back starts (4.09 ERA/0.82 WHIP in 11 IP w/16 Ks) before heading to Coors where he wasn’t exactly great or even particularly good, but he held up all things considered with a 5 IP/4 ER outing. These next two starts will give him a chance to flex his 13% SwStr rate and pump that 20% K rate.
Plesac’s deep league availability has dried up, but you can still scoop him in shallower leagues and he’s someone to consider holding even beyond this favorable matchup in Baltimore.
Pineda is doing his thing… you know the thing. It’s that thing where he pretends to be good for a handful of starts and gets fantasy players to trust him only to pummel their ERA and WHIP with a meltdown start or three. He has a 3.86 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in his last eight starts (46.7 IP) with 40 strikeouts and eight walks (but also 8 HR). He will get Texas after the White Sox start, though, so be careful.
Bassitt’s swing-and-miss has come back to earth with just a 7% mark in June after a flurry of strikeouts to start his season (30% rate in first 6 starts). The St. Louis start kicks off a three-start road run with trips to the Angels and Mariners coming after that.
If you’re down to blindly play matchups, Fedde is your guy! He has a 3.81 ERA since joining the rotation on May 21st, but absolutely no skills to support it. He has 14 strikeouts and 10 walks with four homers allowed in 26 innings. Deeeeep leaguers, this one’s for you.
Worst offenses against lefties all season through June 19th by wRC+:
- Giants – 67 wRC+
- Marlins – 68
- Royals – 74
- Pirates – 76
- Blue Jays/Yankees – 81
Worst offenses against lefties in L30 days through June 19th:
- Tigers – 70 wRC+
- Royals – 73
- Marlins – 74
- Giants – 76
- Yankees/Red Sox – 78
Highest strikeout rates against lefties:
- Rays/Padres/Rangers – 27%
- Tigers/Mariners/Yankees – 26%
- Mets/Cubs/Orioles/Royals/Pirates/Rockies – 25%
Lefties to consider for June 24th-July 7th (schedules subject to change, of course):
- Matt Strahm at BAL (Jun. 26), SF (Jul. 2)
- John Means SD (Jun. 26), at TB (Jul. 2)
- Eric Lauer SF (Jul. 3)
- CC Sabathia TOR (Jun. 24)
- Danny Duffy at TOR (Jun. 28)
- Martin Perez TB (Jun. 27)
Notes:
The lefty list is a lot lighter, but the top two are probably might favorites of all the pitchers listed including the righties. Well it’s Strahm, Sanchez, and Means as my top three.
Strahm has had a June from hell with a disaster outing before hitting the IL and then having to return with back-to-back outings at Colorado and home against Milwaukee. He opened the season with a dud, but then reeled off a 2.53 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his next nine starts with a 19% K-BB rate heading into June. Hopefully these two starts can get him back on track.
Means has allowed more than 3 ER just once this year and it was a 5 IP/4 ER start at the White Sox. Since that start on April 29th, he has a 2.60 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 45 innings. Means was missing bats through April with a 15% SwStr rate, but it’s come down to 8% over his last eight starts. He’s still been effective, just not with the strikeouts.
Lauer was great for a five-start from mid-May to early-June with a 2.08 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 31 innings, but the run has been bookended by starts in Colorado during which he’s allowed 13 earned runs in 5.7 innings over the two outings.
Perez was the talk of the town through mid-May, but he’s fallen on hard times of late with a 7.58 ERA over his last four starts. Thankfully his velo has rebounded and he fanned seven in each of the last two outings so I don’t think he’s reverted all the way back to pre-2019 Perez. The Rays make the cut for their strikeout rate against lefties, but for those concerned about going against them, they’re only middle of the pack in wRC+ at 96 (17th in MLB).
This is great please keep doing this.
YES PLEASE INJECT IT STRAIGHT INTO MY VEINS
How about another lefty, Logan Allen @Bal 6/25, v SF 7/1?
He stays in rotation after that nice debut against Brewers no?
Means to the IL with a strained left shoulder. He could make the 7/2 start if it is a minimum stay.
Speaking of IL – I have been hit with a wave of IL stints and don’t have any IL slots left. If I had to (& I might), who would you dump among Taillon, Carrasco, Caleb Smith, Domingo German, Kyle Hendricks, and Pablo Lopez. I’m thinking its gotta be Lopez but it bums me out – liked what he was doing.
Depends on league type. Honestly German has been garbage minus a couple good starts. Carrasco might be gone for year since the Indians are out of the chase, and I cannot imagine they have any reason for him to comeback . If I was a betting man, and I am, I would say he doesn’t start more than 5 games. Assuming a little rust, pitch count limits, etc, I’d lose him in any redraft. Smith is a def hold .Tailon is progressing towards an august return, could likely be dropped also. Personally, I would rank them like this:
Smith, Hendricks, Lopez, Tailon, German, Carrasco. I know that draft day price is a high burden to drop, but I don’t think Carrasco is back this year.
“German has been garbage minus a couple good starts” … whaaat? That’s a strange comment, as you must have ignored April entirely. Out of 10 starts in April and May he gave up more than 3 ER just twice. Two starts in June didn’t go well, but perhaps that’s where the injury came into play.
I might of overstated. The sum of his parts isn’t great, basically average for a fantasy baseball contributor. And a lot of it, at least to me is about quality of competition. He started out the season with these matchups: Det, Bal, CHW, KCR, LAA, SFG. I think his start was mostly an illusion, very few major league pitchers wouldn’t look good versus those lineups. I think he is an average, to slightly above average MLB starter.
Great feature. Thanks, Paul!
Future lineup analysis is one of my least favourite things to do so THANK YOU SO MUCH, PAUL. Fingers crossed this becomes a regular piece. Such a time saver.
How a team hits against a left or right handed pitchers is greatly influenced by whether that team is playing at home or on the road.
For example, in 2019, the Blue Jays have a 55 wRC+ against lefties when they play in Toronto, but a 113 wRC+ against lefties on the road.
So giving advice based on handedness alone, without considering park factors, is risky. So too is to pick only stats from the start of the season and the past 30 days; what matters is the lineup a pitcher will likely face, not what the lineup looked at in April or even early-June. While the lineups of some teams don’t change much, many do.
So while it is wise to spot-start certain pitchers based upon match-ups, I’d recommend that before doing so, one should also consider park factors and the likely lineup, and if your league counts wins, the matchup between the pitcher’s team’s hitters and the opponent’s pitcher. The intersection between handedness and park factors is found on the Splits leaderboard here.
You should also consider the context of your league and how you are faring. For example, in my main league, while I lead in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts, my lead is much greater in the first two categories than the third, so it make sense to start a marginal pitcher more often who puts up good strikeout numbers even though that exposes the other two categories to some risk; I’ll start Trent Thornton more often than not for that reason. If I was stronger with strikeouts and more vulnerable with ERA and WHIP, I would start him less often.