I going to examine how both Hyun-Jin Ryu‘s and Dallas Keuchel’s fantasy value changed since both signed over the last few days.

Hyun-Jin Ryu signs with the Toronto Blue Jays

Ryu finally pieced together a great season by staying healthy and throwing more innings (182) than any time since 2013 (192). While his strikeout rate was acceptable (23%), he dominated (2.32 ERA) by walking almost no one (3%) and in the juiced ball era, he limited home runs (0.8 HR/9) with a surge in groundball rate (50%).

I hate this move for Ryu’s value with every aspect being a downgrade from the Dodgers. He moves to the AL where he’ll face a DH more often. He goes to the hyper-competitive AL East. He transitions from a pitcher’s park to one that is neutral overall but gives up more home runs than average. Finally, he goes from a nearly average defense to one in the bottom third.

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Most times it’s easier to get an idea of how a veteran pitcher will perform because of years of examinable data. With Gio Gonzalez and Julio Teheran, they have tons of data and each has beat their ERA estimators for years with no obvious reason why. They’ve beaten luck for years. Both are free with Teheran going with an average draft pick of 352 and Gonzalez with pick 632, so cost isn’t an issue. So is either one worth a roster spot at no cost?

Gio Gonzalez signed by Chicago White Sox

Gonzalez posted a reasonable 3.50 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP in 87 innings of work with the Brewers. He’s been able to walk the fine line walking too many hitters (3.8 BB/9 in 2019 and his career) yet limiting hard contact (0.9 HR/9 and .277 BABIP for 2019, 0.8 and .293 BABIP for his career). While he used to generate a decent number of groundballs (54% in 2015), he’s no longer on either end of the batted ball spectrum. His pitches have some batted ball split with the change and curve over 50% GB% and four-seamer at 26% GB%. The combination is nothing special to explain the difference.
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12/19/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Players from Asia omnibus by Eric Longenhagen
• Madison Bumgarner to ARI (3:00)
• Avisail Garcia/Ryon Healy/Justin Smoak to MIL (11:40)

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12/18/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• A.J. Puk (3:25)
• Taijuan Walker (8:00)
• Jordan Montgomery (9:55)
• Cole Hamels (12:25)

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Over the years, I’ve been working on how to fine-tune my player evaluation process. The following are six datasets that I’ve found useful I’ll not go into detail on any of them since I provide a link to the original article. The following is basically a referenceable data dump.

Note: I know there is a lot of content and when questions arise, make sure the area in question is obvious in the comment. Also, I’ll only answer questions here and not in the original articles.

Voit/Muncy All-Stars (link)

These are older AAA hitters who have shown signs of a breakout.

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It is that time of year again! With the new year upon us, I am releasing my first set of ranks during this week and next for those doing early drafts or prep over the holidays. All ADP and position eligibility are based on NFBC Draft Champions leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

It is that time of year again! With the new year upon us, I am releasing my first set of ranks during this week and next for those doing early drafts or prep over the holidays. All ADP and position eligibility are based on NFBC Draft Champions leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

• Kyle Gibson spent most of last reason dealing with several long-term illnesses.

Then came E. coli and ulcerative colitis.

“In Spring Training we found the right medication,” Gibson said. “I was feeling strong when the season started. Then, I think whether it was the stress to the season or my diet changes, eating on the road and stuff, about mid-May, it started getting worse and the symptoms started creeping back in.

“The hardest part was just before the All-Star break. I wasn’t sleeping well. I was getting up with a bloated stomach and gas and having to go to the bathroom five or six times a night. Right at the beginning of September, I told our trainers I can’t do this anymore.”

Gibson spent 10 days on the injured list. He was on the Twins postseason roster against the Yankees, but was not given a starting assignment. He reached out to others for help. He spoke with Jake Diekman, the former Rangers reliever who spent much of his adult life dealing with ulcerative colitis until finally having multiple surgeries in 2017.

Gibson is a nice upside play with the health issues taken care of.
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Corey Kluber traded to TEX for Emmanuel Clase and Delino DeShields Jr.

It was a busy Sunday with a pair of pitchers finding new homes and sending another shockwave through this ever-moving market. Just as the morning was giving way to afternoon, the Kluber trade came through with him being sent to the Texas Rangers for Clase and DDS. To give you an idea of how obsessed I am with baseball, this was right around lineup lock for my fantasy football playoffs and let’s just say that if there had been a late scratch on my team, I’d have missed it.

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