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Roto Riteup: September 16, 2019

Baseball is beautiful:

 

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Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Hello everyone. Give me a sec while I collect tonight’s FAAB bids from Tout Wars

7:34
Jeff Zimmerman: Auction:
NHoerner: 191
NMarkakis: 153
KLewis: 75
DLamet: 51
LUrias: 39
SMurphy: 37
CStewart: 37
BreAnderson: 36
NMartini: 27
TFrazier: 26
JChacin: 26
AVoth: 10
LSeverino: 6
ARomine: 3
JrgLopez: 3
TDuffey: 2
SVogt: 2
GGarcia: 1
MDubon: 0
JCastro: 0
MRojas: 0
SLong: 0
DSmeltzer: 0
WCastillo: 0

7:34
Jeff Zimmerman: Draft

7:35
Jeff Zimmerman: JDiaz: 77
KLewis: 66
NHoerner: 66
JCueto: 13
CMaybin: 8
ROHearn: 2
BNimmo: 2
AVoth: 1

7:35
Jay: Have Rizzo in 10 team redraft. Who are some good pickups?

7:35
Jeff Zimmerman: Tough to know without options.

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FAAB Projections (9/14/19)

Compared to last week when nothing happened, a few interesting names popped up this week for those still with FAAB left to spend.

The projection guidelines:

  • The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
  • The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
  • The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
  • Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.
Projected FAAB For Hitters
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Cory Spangenberg 2B | MIL 0% 1% 1% $1
Ryan McBroom 1B | KC 0% 1% 1% $1
Cornelius Randolph LF | PHI 0% 1% 1% $1
Tyler Wade 2B | NYY 0% 1% 1% $1
Jose Trevino C | TEX 1% 2% 1% $1
Reese McGuire C | TOR 1% 2% 1% $1
Dylan Moore SS | SEA 2% 3% 1% $1
Cedric Mullins CF | BAL 2% 3% 1% $1
Austin Romine C | NYY 4% 6% 2% $1
Martin Maldonado C | HOU 4% 5% 1% $1
Kyle Lewis CF | SEA 5% 14% 9% $4
Mauricio Dubon SS | SF 6% 8% 2% $1
Nico Hoerner SS | CHC 7% 15% 8% $3
Victor Reyes LF | DET 8% 11% 3% $1
Aledmys Diaz SS | HOU 8% 9% 1% $1
Sean Murphy C | OAK 11% 17% 6% $2
Joey Wendle 2B | TB 13% 15% 2% $1
Austin Nola SS | SEA 17% 21% 4% $2
Christin Stewart LF | DET 17% 18% 1% $1
Eric Thames RF | MIL 18% 21% 3% $2
Nick Solak 2B | TEX 19% 26% 7% $7
Trent Grisham RF | MIL 19% 23% 4% $3
Garrett Cooper LF | MIA 25% 27% 2% $5
Adam Frazier 2B | PIT 26% 33% 7% $12
Tommy Edman SS | STL 34% 46% 12% $30
Starlin Castro 2B | MIA 38% 48% 10% $29
Robinson Cano 2B | NYM 43% 49% 6% $26
Jorge Alfaro C | MIA 43% 44% 1% $18
Wil Myers LF | SD 48% 66% 18% $68
Mike Yastrzemski RF | SF 49% 52% 3% $28
  • Kyle Lewis: For any owner needing outfield help, he’s a must-add. The highly-touted prospect is hitting .400/.375/1.067 with three homers in his first four games. If anyone has money left, it’s going towards Lewis.
  • Nico Hoerner and Mauricio Dubon: Both are regulars with Hoerner starting five straight and Dubon nine straight. They both are the same skill-set of a great eye for contact with some speed and power.
  • Nick Solak: A 26% ownership rate is criminally low for someone hitting .342/.453/.570. He’s started 10 straight games while batting cleanup in all but one of those games.
  • Adam Frazier, Tommy Edman, Starlin Castro, and Robinson Cano: While not the sexy options like Hoerner and Dubon, they’re comparable hitters.
  • Wil Myers: A huge jump in ownership, but he should have been owned in deeper leagues since the Franmil Reyes was traded to the Indians.
  • Sean Murphy: Since being called up, Muphy is hitting .409/.458/1.091 in eight games with four homers.
Projected FAAB For Pitchers
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Ronald Bolanos SP | SD 0% 2% 2% $1
Seung-Hwan Oh RP | COL 0% 1% 1% $1
James Karinchak RP | CLE 1% 3% 2% $1
Jorge Lopez RP | KC 2% 5% 3% $1
Jairo Diaz RP | COL 3% 7% 4% $1
Nick Wittgren RP | CLE 3% 4% 1% $1
Chad Green RP | NYY 4% 5% 1% $1
Anthony Kay SP | TOR 7% 9% 2% $1
Yusmeiro Petit RP | OAK 7% 8% 1% $1
Will Harris RP | HOU 8% 9% 1% $1
Trevor May RP | MIN 9% 10% 1% $1
Arodys Vizcaino RP | SEA 10% 11% 1% $1
Trent Thornton RP | TOR 11% 13% 2% $1
Drew Smyly SP | PHI 14% 16% 2% $1
Johnny Cueto SP | SF 21% 46% 25% $21
Justus Sheffield RP | SEA 27% 35% 8% $1
Dylan Bundy SP | BAL 28% 30% 2% $1
Michael Wacha SP | STL 33% 37% 4% $1
Gio Gonzalez SP | MIL 34% 38% 4% $1
Ross Stripling SP | LAD 38% 40% 2% $1
Seth Lugo RP | NYM 42% 45% 3% $1
Zach Eflin SP | PHI 43% 45% 2% $1
Alex Young SP | ARI 45% 56% 11% $6
Nathan Eovaldi SP | BOS 45% 52% 7% $2
Sandy Alcantara SP | MIA 46% 49% 3% $0
Merrill Kelly SP | ARI 47% 54% 7% $3
Chase Anderson SP | MIL 47% 50% 3% $0
Reynaldo Lopez SP | CHW 48% 56% 8% $4
Martin Perez SP | MIN 50% 55% 5% $2
  • Johnny Cueto: He’s back and threw five shutout innings. His fastball sat at 91.3 mph which is at his preinjury level. I am a little worried he posted just a 6% SwStr% on the game.
  • Alex Young: Young finally pushed his ownership over the 50% mark. He’s been one of the few decent starting options on the waiver wire.
  • Michael Wacha: I noticed while going over the Vegas lines, Michael Wacha had stepped up his game in the second half with a 3.86 ERA and a 4.14 xFIP.
  • Nathan Eovaldi: Why? Let me look. A two-step against the Giants and at the Rays. It’s tough to trust a 5.00 to 5.50 ERA talent pitcher.

Closer Rankings (Saves focused)

  1. Seth Lugo
  2. Nick Wittgren
  3. James Karinchak
  4. Trevor May
  5. Will Harris
  6. Chad Green
  7. Jairo Díaz
  8. Seung-Hwan Oh
  9. Yusmeiro Petit
  10. Arodys Vizcaíno
Week 25 FAAB Bids in 2019 NFBC Main Event
Add Avg Bid Leagues (38)
Gavin Lux $11 35
Kyle Gibson $9 9
Zach Eflin $8 5
Johnny Cueto $8 5
Robinson Cano $7 9
Rich Hill $6 23
Brandon Nimmo $6 10
Dylan Moore $6 23
Tyler Glasnow $6 14
Justus Sheffield $5 17
Patrick Sandoval $5 6
Raimel Tapia $5 6
Seth Brown $5 6
Adam Haseley $4 5
Ross Stripling $4 8
Brendan McKay $4 14
Jairo Diaz $4 8
Joey Wendle $3 11
Dawel Lugo $3 9
Josh James $3 6
Harold Castro $3 5
Drew Smyly $3 5
Josh Rojas $2 17
Mauricio Dubon $2 10
Robert Dugger $2 13
Austin Pruitt $2 6
Matt Beaty $2 8
Tyler Beede $2 5
Garrett Hampson $2 5
Tyler Mahle $2 13
Dereck Rodriguez $2 10
Phillip Ervin $2 5
Ben Zobrist $2 10
Anthony Kay $1 7
Austin Voth $1 5
Julio Urias $1 6
Austin Hedges $1 6

 

Week 26 FAAB Bids in 2018 NFBC Main Event
Add Avg Bid Leagues (34)
Yairo Munoz $16 6
Ross Stripling $16 5
Sandy Alcantara $14 12
Daniel Mengden $14 7
Brandon Lowe $13 6
Terrance Gore $11 9
Jose Fernandez $10 11
Yoshihisa Hirano $10 21
Ryan Borucki $10 12
Delino DeShields $9 5
Erick Fedde $7 24
Ty Buttrey $7 20
Jose Alvarado $6 9
Chris Stratton $6 6
Ji-Man Choi $5 14
Willians Astudillo $5 19
Sean Reid-Foley $5 9
Joe Ross $5 10
Steve Cishek $4 10
Cody Reed $4 7
Nate Jones $4 6
Jorge Bonifacio $4 6
Tyler Skaggs $3 5
Brett Anderson $3 6
Jason Vargas $3 7
Daniel Norris $3 8
Christin Stewart $3 10
Jake Bauers $3 7
Wilmer Difo $3 6
Jake Cave $2 7
Aaron Altherr $2 5
Joe Mauer $1 5
Robbie Erlin $1 7
Victor Caratini $1 9

 


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 737 – Fireside Chat: Too Early Mock SP Market Analysis

9/13/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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TOO EARLY MOCK SP ANALYSIS

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Approximately 94 minutes of joyous analysis.


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 738 – 2-Starts & Platoons for Week of Sept. 16th

9/13/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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Paul runs through the scheduled two-start pitchers and righty/lefty schedule splits of each team for next week highlighting who to start and potential platoon bats who could benefit.

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A Minor Review of 2019: San Diego Padres

Welcome back to this annual series that first began in 2008. While taking a look back at the 2019 minor league season, it will also help you prepare for the 2020 fantasy season and beyond. We began the series recently with the Arizona Diamondbacks, followed by the Colorado Rockies. Today, we continue on with the San Diego Padres, an organization brimming with good, young talent.

Best Move of the Season:

It wasn’t anywhere near the steal of Fernando Tatis Jr. from the White Sox but the addition of center-fielder Taylor Trammell in a three-way trade with Cleveland and Cincinnati was a very underrated move. Yes, the Padres gave up three players but southpaw Logan Allen is overrated, outfielder Franmil Reyes is a very one-dimensional player, and the third player, Victor Nova, is a raw lottery ticket. Trammell, meanwhile, was already considered a Top 100 prospect despite his struggles with the bat in 2019. He’s ultra-athletic with plus speed and the raw power to hit 20 or more home runs. Despite his struggles in 2019 and issues making consistent contact, Trammell walked 65 times in 123 games (13% walk rate). Acquiring him was a worthwhile gamble considering what was given up in exchange.

The Org Depth:

The Padres graduated Luis Urias in 2019 but there is still an incredible amount of middle-infield depth on the way.

C.J. Abrams: Abrams was one of the most talented and most athletic players in the 2019 draft but no one expected his bat to be quite as advanced as it was. He laid waste to the Arizona rookie league with a 1.104 OPS and .401 batting average in 32 games. Abrams also showed more pop in the bat with 23 of his 57 hits in Rookie ball going for extra bases. The speedy infielder also added 14 steals on his way to an early August promotion to Low-A ball — a nearly unprecedented move for an 18-year-old.

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Top 30 First Basemen for 2020

First base looked a bit thin during draft season and despite the emergence of some guys, I don’t think much changed. There is a thick middle tier that gives a perception of depth, but 1B is often deep in premium talent so this is definitely a new landscape. If you don’t one of the top 10 or so, you’re probably better off waiting as the difference between the 11th and 20th guy isn’t that stark.

One factor regarding this relative dearth of elites is that some multi-positional guys that would’ve never been considered at 1B with positions like 2B, 3B, or OF on their card are now looking better at this position. Except catcher. I’m still not even ranking guys like Yasmani Grandal at 1B because it just doesn’t make any sense to use him anywhere but C.

Let’s get into the list. I went 30 deep and then listed a bunch of honorable mentions. Let me know if I forgot anyone or if you think someone belongs much higher or much lower than where I have them right now.

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AL Lineup Analysis (9/12/19)

Angels

Astros


Streaming Starters: September 13, 2019

Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate). Read the rest of this entry »


Thursday Streaming Starters (9/12/19)

Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Note: The starters are listed in order of value

Hell Yes

Dinelson Lamet vs CHC (24%): While he’s facing the Darvish-led Cubs, the matchup doesn’t scare me one bit. Lamet has a 11.7 K/9 and an under 4.00 with ERA estimators to match. Maybe the next two pitchers listed here might have a better chance for a win but Lamet has the best overall package.

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