9/11/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host

SECOND HALF STANDOUTS

• Kyle Seager
• Starlin Castro
• Jurickson Profar
• A.J. Pollock

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True Fact:

The only time you should bunt is when you do it just to light up a pitcher that threw at you pic.twitter.com/lbIzFr0dSC

— Kent (@RealKentMurphy) August 29, 2019

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Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

I’m listing them in order of interest.

SCOOP ‘EM

Zach Davies (9-7, 3.69) at MIA | 30%: Davies could be a lot worse and still qualify as a recommendation against the Marlins. They are simply one of the best teams to pick on down the stretch. Davies won’t do much for your strikeouts, but I’ll take 5-6 strong innings with a few strikeouts and strong win probability here.

John Means (10-10, 3.50 ERA) v. LAD | 37%: The 2019 All Star has done his best work at home (2.86 ERA/0.98 WHIP) and while the Dodgers are unquestionably one of the best teams in the league, they aren’t their best against lefties. Since the All-Star break, the Dodgers are 14th in wOBA against southpaws with the 4th-highest strikeout rate at 25%. While Means has been better against sub-.500 teams, he’s at 4.00 ERA/1.21 WHIP against .500 or better teams and I’d take a start like that here against the Dodgers.

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Gambling and baseball go way back. Everyone, casinos and betters, look to gain an edge with the hope of free money. Today, I’m starting a series diving into the lines with the hope of finding which information, fantasy or otherwise, can be extracted from the sharks and books using the FanGraphs win rate as a baseline.

To start the study, I used the game projections available here at FanGraphs and the historic Vegas line. While the FanGraphs projections were right more times than wrong, there was a systematic error I quickly found. The home-field advantage was set to 8%. The home field teams were expected to win 54% of the time and lose 46% (math!) for the 8% spread. I looked back at the league-wide home-field advantage over the past dozen season and found a smaller margin.
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Monday Night Football was lit last night!

This pre game routine goes unbeaten 🔥 pic.twitter.com/qsB0txO27P

— Baseball Central™ (@BaseballCentraI) September 9, 2019

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9/9/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Dave Dombrowski gone in BOS
• Kyle Lewis coming up
• Nico Hoerner coming up
• Jesus Luzardo coming up

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download

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Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Note: The starters are listed in order of value

Hell Yea

Tanner Roark (31%) at HOU: I don’t love the game being at Houston but he just goes against Wade Miley. He strikes out batters. Doesn’t walk many. He’s got a good team behind him. Sure why not.

Mitch Keller (7%) at SF: I know he has an 8.18 ERA, but his ERA estimators are between 3.75 to 4.00. A .469 BABIP is dragging him down but it’s tough to pass on the 12.0 K/9.

Partial Category Contribution

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Welcome back to this annual series that first began in 2008. While taking a look back at the 2019 minor league season, it will also help you prepare for the 2020 fantasy season and beyond. We began the series last week with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Today, we continue on with the Colorado Rockies, an organization that has some intriguing offensive players but continues to struggle to produce impact arms.

The Org Depth:

The Rockies’ system continues to see good infield depth even after the graduations of Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson in recent seasons.

Colton Welker, 3B: Welker dominated the lower levels of the minors with a career batting average of more than .330 after three pro seasons. He then hit a wall in Double-A. Welker missed over a month with an injury and never really looked healthy after his return. He’ll spend time in the Arizona Fall League and look to make up for lost time with an eye on jumping to Triple-A in 2020. To be an impact Major Leaguer, Welker needs to get stronger and continue to put more balls in the air. He also needs to be more selective with the pitches he’s swinging at.

Ryan Vilade, SS/3B: A more well-rounded player than Welker above, I’d put my money on Vilade eventually being the more valuable big leaguer. He’s not a speed-burner but the young infielder can run well and is becoming a smarter base runner. He’s also more selective at the plate and took 56 walks in 126 High-A ball games (just shy of a 10% walk rate) which bodes well for his future. He’s also getting stronger and hitting more balls in the air so a 20-homer season is a realistic goal.

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Have you ever seen them both at the same place at the same time?

Justin Turner killing bugs vs. Tormund Giantsbane killing the Lord of Bones, Mechanics. pic.twitter.com/N13N8L7RDY

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 8, 2019

I thought not.

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