Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com, which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate). Read the rest of this entry »

Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

I’m listing them in order of interest.

SCOOP ‘EM

Joe Musgrove (10-12, 4.52) v. SEA | 44%: It’s hard not to feel that Musgrove is getting ready for his standard “rug-pull” start given the ups and downs of the season, but I’m still starting him here. He’s got a 3.89 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in his last six starts spanning 34.7 innings, including 34 strikeouts against just six walks. The Mariners have just a .305 wOBA and 26% K rate against righties over the last month.

Read the rest of this entry »

9/18/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Blake Snell sharp in return (5:50)
• Luis Severino even sharper in return (7:55)
• Cavan Biggio cycle (9:15)
  • Garrett Hampson talk (14:10)
• Chris Paddack done (17:42)
• David Price done for the year (22:00)
• Caleb Smith talk (23:52)
• Lucas Giolito done for the year (26:40)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Checking in on the GOAT:

What has Bartolo Colon been up to?

Just gassing up the local children in his native Dominican Republic 🔥 pic.twitter.com/ivXLPvMtRR

— Baseball Quotes (@BaseballQuotes1) September 17, 2019

Read the rest of this entry »

9/17/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host

SECOND HALF STANDOUTS

• Elvis Andrus (2:00)
• Khris Davis (9:55)
• Christian Vazquez/James McCann (13:30)
• Nick Senzel (18:00)
• Eddie Rosario (22:05)
• Justin Smoak (26:16)
• Corey Seager (28:50)
• Rhys Hoskins (32:22)
• Josh Bell (35:47)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

It’s time to gleen into tonight’s games to see what information can be pulled out.  All the background information is available in this introductory article and I’m just going to continue grinding through games trying to find discrepancies and any useful fantasy information like the following.

Notes from the lines:

• Our projections hate some pitchers but they really hate Tim Melville.
• The Books have no faith in Chandler Shepard first major league start tonight.
• FanGraphs has put too much faith into Blake Snell’s return from the IL.
• The Books seems to expect more out of Brett Anderson than an ERA over 4.50.

Game 1 (Tuesday): Phillies at Braves
Favorite: Braves
Book’s Breakeven % (Braves): 64.5%
FanGraphs Win%: 52.1%

FanGraphs doesn’t buy into Dallas Keuchel’s 3.35 ERA (3.91 ERA projection) but Vince Velasquez is pegged at a 4.86 ERA. The Braves aren’t even getting all the home-field advantage on a break-even game. I’d have to side with the Books on this one.
Read the rest of this entry »

As Justin’s six Too Early Mock drafts wind down, we have some excellent ADP data to look digest and it’s been brilliantly put together by the wonderful Smada. It will obviously morph over the next 6+ months with risers and fallers at every level.

Today I’m identifying 20 players going pick-200 or later that I like for next year and while some may ascend into the top 200, it’s unlikely that any will become cost prohibitive by draft season. The league setup was 15-team with the standard NFBC lineup except for just one catcher instead of two: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OFx5, UT, Px9.

Julio Urías, SP ARI | ADP 208 – High 171 – Low 272

The Dodgers will be using Urias as a starter next year and while his workload will no doubt be managed, I like him in this pick range. He will likely get somewhere around 120-140 innings which is enough to be a high impact arm. Look at what Chris Paddack was able to do with 135.7 innings. The Padres got him to the finish line and he’s been a Top 30 SP according to the Razzball Player Rater. Urias could definitely match or best the 3.38 ERA/1.00 WHIP with 144 Ks we’ve seen from Paddack this year.

Read the rest of this entry »

Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Note: The starters are listed in order of value

Hell Yea

Aaron Civale (43%) vs DET: I don’t believe in the 1.93 ERA with a 4.56 xFIP and 4.65 SIERA but the home matchup (vs Zimmermann) is great.

Tony Gonsolin (0%) vs TB: Golsolin is a similar talent to Civale but Gonsolin’s matchup versus the Rays is tougher.

Dinelson Lamet (20%) at MIL: He’s a must-start even though he’s on the road in Milwaukee.

Zach Eflin (28%) at ATL: This might be the most boring pickup but he has been consistently OK over the course of this season. I just wish he was facing someone besides Atlanta.
Read the rest of this entry »

September Baseball got me like:

There are 60 players in MLB with at least 28 home runs this season. Zero of them are on the SF Giants. In fact, the Giants have not had a player with 28 home runs in a season this decade. A decade in which they won three World Series. pic.twitter.com/jxMXLjJWns

— Justin Mason (@JustinMasonFWFB) September 17, 2019

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s time to go over a few more games from this past weekend and today.  All the background information is available in this introductory article and I’m just going to continue grinding through games trying to find discrepancies and any useful fantasy information like the following.

Notes from the lines:

• Vegas is in love with John Means even though he’s struggled in the second half.
• The FanGraphs projection for pitchers coming off Tommy John surgery (e.g. Garrett Richards and Johnny Cueto) seem too optimistic.
• Marlins Pablo López and Elieser Hernandez have struggled in the second half.
• Zac Gallen’s projections seem off and he could be a sneaky upside option going into 2020.

Read the rest of this entry »