06/26/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Charlie Blackmon has COVID
• As do several Blue Jays (no names yet)
  • Breaking News: Several Twins w/COVID, too
• Alex Verdugo is set to be ready
• Cole Hamels, too
• Angels eyeing Shohei Ohtani, Griffin Canning, & Felix Pena being available

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

My initial goal was to determine the amount of variation in pitching stats in a short season. What I found was a stipulation filled mess. It should have been simple. Just take the first two months and compare how the pitchers performed to a full season. The short answer is that they did great because they pitched in cooler weather and were 100% healthy. Instead, should the results from August and Septemeber be used, by that point in the season, many had broken down and the breakouts (e.g. Lucas Giolito) emerged. There is no perfect way to answer my original idea, so I’ll try to provide several possible answers.

To limit the focus, I’m going to implement the following guidelines. It’s a lot and when I was setting them, I was questioning any possible findings. By changing any one of them, the process to find the results and the actual final results differ.

• Assumed a 12-team league and used SGP (Standing Gain Points) equation from The Process.
• I used historic Steamer projections to set the preseason valuation.
• I only examined WHIP and ERA. Most of the hot takes I’ve heard involve not wanting to deal with the possible variation in these rate stats.
• Ignored closers. They are their own beast.
• Focused on the 7 starters for 12 teams.
• Used April to May data and then August to September. Both aren’t ideal but the differences can then be analyzed.
• Anyone who didn’t pitch during the two-month time frame got zeros across the board.
• I just did 2019 and kept the mess to one season.

Read the rest of this entry »

06/23/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Latest Proposal
  • Owners using March agreement
  • Target of 60 gms, starting 7/24
  • MLBPA likely to agree today by 5 pm CT
  • Universal DH likely for ‘20, uncertain for ‘21
  • No expanded playoffs
  • Dumbass runner on 2nd rule in extras
  • No jersey ads

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Read the rest of this entry »

Note: About 95% of this article was finished before the news that MLB is going forward with a 60 game season.  I finished it knowing that more imporant work needs to be done. This series now comes to an abrupt end and I will return to the series once the season is over one way or the other.

I’m continuing my quest to predict pitcher injuries and their effects as best as possible. I started grinding through the process last week and found through some additional work that injuries from just the past two seasons drag down production. Today, I’m going to go over some other possible other injury causes and provide updated injury ranks.

While I’ve done quite a bit of my own work on pitcher injuries, I decided to scour the web come up with some new ideas. Here are some possible ideas ranked by how I’d like to investigate them.
Read the rest of this entry »

If we do in fact get some sort of 50-ish game season, finding any small edge could be the difference between winning and losing your league. One potential edge is platoons. Let’s take a look at the starting pitching handedness breakdown on the assumed rotations for each division. This assumes they stick to this mega-division plan by combining the East, Central, and West division from both leagues.

We’re also going to grade the pitchers using the FIP from their BAT projection. My arbitrary scale is as such: sub-4.00 is good, 4.01-4.70 is solid, and 4.71+ is bad.

Read the rest of this entry »

With so much sabermetric work already completed, I’m creating a ton of work for myself to see if a hitter’s athleticism influences how they age? Additionally, do these “athletes” age better? I tried to jump the gun a few nights ago with an ill-fated Twitter thread where I thought about reverse-engineering the stats. Instead, I’m going to put a value on a hitter’s athleticism using some readily available metrics.

I began my search by using some advice from Bill James who commented on my Tweet.

Let's assert as Point A that "athleticism" consists of four things: Speed, strength, agility and quickness. "Strength" is the most troublesome, because you can have strength in many different body parts, and people who are strong in one area may be relatively weak in others.

— Bill James Online (@billjamesonline) June 7, 2020

He just rattled the traits off and since he’s likely forgotten more about baseball than I’ve ever learned, I’ll just focus on them. I’m guessing he’s already investigated the subject.
Read the rest of this entry »

06/18/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Latest Proposal

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Projecting pitcher injuries and their effect seems like the Holy Grail for fantasy analysis. From years of research on the subject, I find it’s just a frustration filled enterprise with no firm resolution. Until a start to the 2020 season has been agreed upon (or I eventually find an acceptable answer), I plan to continuously grind for a workable understanding of pitcher injuries.

First, this article will be a work in progress as I try to find answers to various questions. I can’t fill the RotoGraphs article list with a new article every time I make a change or add more information (Ed. note: Sure you can, Jeff, we’ll post all of ’em!). Every few days or so, I’ll summarize the findings from the previous article’s work and keep moving forward. The series will come to an abrupt end if the framework exists for a start to the season since other analysis will then take priority.
Read the rest of this entry »

Today, we finally move on to the National League, beginning with the East division and the Braves. As a reminder, the series was intended to only list and discuss prospects who have a chance of earning significant playing time this year only. Obviously, this assumes a 2020 season. That means that there are going to be top prospects missing because they have only completed A-ball and have no chance of appearing in the Majors this season.

Read the rest of this entry »