MASH Report with Pitch Type DL Chances

• Yesterday, I took requests for injury information and decided to go with Sam Berger’s request.

There were about 1000 routes I could have taken for the answer, but I went with the following:

DL chances for a pitcher the season following 10 starts or 20 relief appearances knowing the percentage a pitcher throws a certain pitch in the first season. The data is from 2002 to present.

Starters (min 10 GS in Y1)
Pitch Mix DL chances in Y2 Scaled to 100 (or league average) Count
All 51% 100 2320
FB% > 80% 63% 125 27
FB% > 75% 51% 101 82
FB% > 70% 51% 101 286
FB% > 60% 53% 104 1154
FB% > 50% 52% 103 1999
FB% > 40% 51% 101 2249
SL% > 35% 47% 93 36
SL% > 30% 57% 113 100
SL% > 20% 51% 101 516
SL% > 10% 51% 101 1328
CB% > 30% 76% 150 41
CB% > 25% 63% 125 127
CB% > 20% 51% 100 316
CB% > 10% 51% 100 1176
CB%+SL% > 40% 46% 91 65
CB%+SL% > 30% 51% 101 411
CB%+SL% > 20% 52% 103 1159
CB%+SL% > 10% 50% 100 1611
CH% > 30% 49% 97 45
CH% > 25% 47% 93 146
CH% > 20% 44% 87 339
CH% > 10% 47% 93 1287
Relievers (min 20 Relief App in Y1)
Pitch Mix DL chances in Y2 Scaled to 100 Count
All 37% 100 2916
FB% > 90% 40% 108 30
FB% > 80% 41% 111 207
FB% > 70% 40% 107 832
FB% > 60% 37% 101 1823
FB% > 50% 37% 101 2491
FB% > 40% 37% 100 2781
0
SL% > 60% 45% 122 20
SL% > 50% 32% 86 57
SL% > 40% 40% 108 201
SL% > 30% 42% 113 623
SL% > 20% 38% 103 1313
SL% > 10% 37% 99 2040
CB% > 30% 24% 65 21
CB% > 25% 27% 73 74
CB% > 20% 30% 81 304
CB% > 10% 38% 102 762
CB%+SL% > 40% 44% 120 160
CB%+SL% > 30% 39% 105 526
CB%+SL% > 20% 37% 100 996
CB%+SL% > 10% 38% 102 1332
CH% > 35% 19% 52 31
CH% > 30% 32% 88 77
CH% > 20% 34% 91 271
CH% > 10% 31% 85 783

I don’t have a bunch of analysis on the results right now as I am still trying to digest it all, but it looks like too much of any pitch, except changeups, will make a pitcher injury prone.

Jurickson Profar is throwing at 90% for now.

Profar is on a throwing program and able to throw from a distance of 135 feet without issues. He said he was throwing about “90 percent” on Wednesday, but that was good enough on a frosty January morning. He will wait until the Arizona desert before airing it out.

He still hasn’t thrown 100% yet and I will remain hesitant to own him until he can. If he can throw 100%, I suspect he can’t swing at a 100% level either. Additionally, he will start in the minors:

Profar is on the big league roster, but the Rangers don’t see him making the team in Spring Training. They have Elvis Andrus at short, Rougned Odor at second and Hanser Albertoand veteran Pedro Ciriaco as the utility candidates.

The Rangers want Profar to begin the season playing everyday shortstop at Triple-A and regain lost time. He is fine with that after what he has been through.

The more I think about it, I may only consider him an option in keeper leagues.

Brad Peacock had several operations and now feels better.

Astros pitcher Brad Peacock said he will come to spring camp 100 percent healthy, and he expects to compete for a job in the starting rotation after undergoing surgery last year to remove bone spurs in his back to alleviate pressure on a pinched nerve.

Peacock, who also underwent hip surgery following the 2014 season, was limited to just one game with the Astros last year while dealing with what had originally been diagnosed as a left intercostal strain. Last spring, he wasn’t fully recuperated from his hip surgery, so he’s eager to show what he can do.

Jonathan Lucroy is doing some neck strengthening exercises to help prevent future concussions.

With that in mind, Lucroy has added a new dimension to his offseason workouts — neck strengthening. With input from the Brewers’ training staff and his personal trainer in Lafayette, La., he believes these exercises can minimize the chances of another concussion — an ongoing hazard of being a catcher.

“We’ve been doing a nice, safe regimen for neck strengthening that will help me be more impact resistant,” Lucroy said during a telephone interview Tuesday. “A lot of studies have shown neck strength helps decrease the severity of concussions by a lot. That’s what I’m aiming for.”

Carlos Martinez is “90 percent” healthy.

Carlos Martinez, who was lost from the team’s rotation in late September after suffering a right shoulder injury, estimated that he is back to “90 percent” health with the Cardinals a month away from opening Spring Training.

The Cards do not anticipate any limitations being put on Martinez at the start of camp, but they will get a better feel for his recovery this week, as Martinez will start his throwing program on Tuesday. That will happen at the team’s spring complex in Jupiter, Fla., where Martinez has spent much of his offseason rehabbing.

It would be better if he was at 100% right now. Hopefully, his shoulder can hold up and he makes all his spring training starts.

Randal Grichuk had a hernia operation in December and has started physical activity again.

Randal Grichuk, who underwent sports hernia surgery in December, said he began throwing, hitting and agility drills last week. He had previously been running a few weeks prior to that.

“I’m getting close to where I need to be,” said Grichuk, who projects to be the team’s starting center fielder. “It’s looking good, from what I hear. I’m going to go into [Spring Training] and expect to be healthy and fight for a job.”

CC Sabathia is admitting to physically breaking down.

There is no denying that the wear and tear of 2,988 2/3 innings over 15 big league seasons has caught up with the 35-year-old Sabathia, who has been told that he is pitching with bone-on-bone arthritis in a knee that eventually will require replacement surgery.

Sabathia has accepted that reality, telling MLB.com late last season, “That’s the price you pay.” For now, with the brace on and a month in rehab for alcoholism behind him, he believes that there still are meaningful innings to contribute to the Yanks’ rotation in 2016.

• The Cardinals added a performance department to a restructures medical staff.

General manager John Mozeliak announced on Saturday that the Cardinals are restructuring their medical department by adding a performance department that will be headed by Dr. Robert Butler. Butler joins the organization following his time working as a clinical scientist and educator in Duke University’s physical therapy department.

“Ultimately, what we’re trying to do is grab hold of a more modern approach to understanding fatigue, nutrition, and training and put it under one umbrella,” Mozeliak explained. “I think, in the past, we’ve had a lot of different ways of touching on player performance. I never felt like it was under one umbrella, and now we’ve hired someone who has a background in organiz-ing this, understanding how to measure it, and understanding what success looks like.”

Players possibly on the DL in 2016

The Red players have had updates since the last report. Click on the “Date” for a link to go to the latest article on the player.





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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CC AFCmember
8 years ago

The FB% > 80% group for starters fascinates me. It doesn’t look like there is a meaningful difference in injury chance anywhere lower than that, but then it really rises at >80%.

I’m inclined to think maybe that small group includes pitchers that are already injured and purposefully avoiding non-fastballs. But then again, you set the parameters at 10 games started, so that would be a relatively large amount of games to pitch if you’re so injured that you would avoid throwing anything but fastballs. Also would think Bartolo Colon just totally messes with that group’s numbers on his own, haha.