A total of 53 players were non-tendered prior to Monday night’s deadline, and a number of fantasy-relevant players were included in that group. Domingo Santana and C.J. Cron fit that description, and if they can successfully come back from injury, so may Steven Souza Jr., Taijuan Walker and Aaron Sanchez.

What is less clear is whether Blake Treinen, José Peraza and Kevin Gausman can still be called fantasy-relevant. They certainly were as recently as 2018, but each of them fell so far in 2019 that they failed to make the top 500 in ADP in the 2 Early Mocks. Yet, upon closer examination, all three have the potential to have comeback seasons in 2020. Even though they may not get much attention in fantasy circles this offseason, I’ll make the case as to why each is deserving of a spot on your late-round flier or watch list.

Blake Treinen

In 2019, Treinen lost all of the gains he made in his strikeout and swinging strike rates in 2018, and he even lost his long-held knack for getting grounders. This combination led to the escalation of Treinen’s ERA from 0.78 to 4.91 and to him losing the Athletics’ closer role to Liam Hendriks. The loss of whiffs is likely related to a decrease in average sinker velocity from 98.0 to 96.7 mph, as well as a drop in average sinker spin rate form 2371 to 2250 rpm. He was generally locating his pitches higher (see below), which would explain his middling ground ball rate (42.8 percent) and HR/9 ratio (1.38).
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We’ve actually enjoyed a pretty busy offseason thus far. Today, I’m focusing specifically on the big moves of the Padres and then tomorrow I’ll dive into the other moves including the big news this afternoon that Mike Moustakas is headed to Cincinnati.

Padres get Trent Grisham and Zach Davies; Brewers get Luis Urías and Eric Lauer

Grisham actually joins a relatively crowded outfield with Hunter Renfroe, Wil Myers, Manuel Margot, and Franchy Cordero also on board, though given how active the Padres have already been this winter, I wouldn’t be surprised if they had plans to clear the logjam a bit before the spring. Grisham’s season obviously ended on a down note with the fielding flub that hurt the Brewers in the wildcard game, but now he gets a fresh start in San Diego.

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Enough news has trickled out to put together a few noteworthy news nuggets.

• In my opinion, Chris Sale is not worth his current price right now (NFBC ADP of 44). I can’t have my likely ace and third-round pick with so many questions surrounding … especially not being ready to start the season healthy.

Red Sox ace Chris Sale has been cleared to begin throwing again after a visit with Dr. James Andrews, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI Radio. The goal is for Sale to be a full go for Spring Training in a few short months. Sale’s latest visit to the physician comes as a follow-up to an August appointment in which Sale received a platelet-rich plasma injection.
…
He didn’t suffer any ligament damage, and today’s update should inspire some optimism that Sale will once again be a stalwart in the Boston rotation and return to the Cy Young form that he maintained for the better part of a decade.

Better but not great.
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I compared the average draft position data of the first 10 NFBC Draft Champions leagues with the 2020 Steamer Projections to identify 10 of the best values going in the top 150. I just took their auction calculator rank using Steamer and compared it against their ADP. Here’s what I found (sorted by ADP – Auction Calc. difference, highest to lowest):

Dinelson Lamet | SP – Auction Calculator Rank: 52, ADP: 128

He feels like a winter riser. He was getting hyped at the Baseball HQ event in Arizona for his strikeout prowess after posting a 34% mark in his 73 IP this year. While he won’t reach as high as this Auction Calculator Rank, I think he’ll beat this current ADP, especially in the NFBC realm where pitching is always pushed up.

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11/27/19

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• @sporer – Host/Producer
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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Kyle Gibson to TEX (0:30)
• Luis Urías/Trent Grisham trade (6:20)
• Drew Pomeranz to SD (21:44)
• Travis d’Arnaud to ATL (26:50)
• Mike Zunino staying in TB (30:10)

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A few weeks back, I posted that the 2020 edition of The Process was available in e-book form for downloading. All the loops have been jumped and now all it is available in paperback form at Amazon.

Here are some of the additions:

• A comparison to see if it’s more efficient to buy closers versus starters in the draft or wait for free agency for each one.

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We’re headed back to the National League for the upstart Reds who have a strong rotation and some intriguing bats setting them up as a 2020 fringe contender with a few key offseason moves.

OTHER TEAMS:

• Pittsburgh Pirates
• Seattle Mariners
• Houston Astros
• Baltimore Orioles

3 QUESTIONS

Is Joey Votto done as a premier hitter?

After a nine-year run which saw Votto hit .315/.436/.544 with 30 HR, 95 RBI, 102 R, and 9 SB per 162 games, he fallen on hard times the last two years with just a .272/.387/.415 line and 16 HR, 65 RBI, 83 R, and 4 SB per 162. His 2018 and 2019 aren’t that far off outside of his walk rate so while a lot attention is being paid to his 2019, this is now two severely non-Vottoan years.

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For the last four years, I have run the 2 Early Mock Drafts with industry analysts. They were a way of getting the initial thoughts on where they would take players for the next season. This year I decided to compare those results versus the first ADP from Draft Champions drafts on NFBC. A few things to consider:

1. We run the 2 Early Mocks in Early September and they take about 2-3 weeks. So, some players late-season numbers and playoff numbers or late-season injuries or suspensions aren’t considered into those drafts (i.e. Keone Kela, Daniel Hudson, Domingo German, Jon Berti, etc.)
2. The 2 Early Mocks were 1-catcher formats. So, the catcher ADPs aren’t very useful. I will change that in the future.
3. If a player was auto-drafted in one of the 2 Early Mocks, that isn’t factored into the ADP. There were a couple of cases of players being auto-drafted in all six of the drafts, which means his ADP is not registered (i.e. Joey Votto.) These players and players not drafted at all in the 2 Early Mocks have been given an ADP of 544 for this table.
4. The player pool’s ranks for the 2 Early Mocks on the site drafted was put in order of 2019 preseason ranks. So, sometimes players get forgotten about and rookie players or 2019 breakouts can have their values depressed in the 2 Early Mocks as opposed to NFBC.

Here are the results for the top 450 players according to NFBC ADP: Read the rest of this entry »

From the World Series runner up to second-worst record in baseball, let’s take a closer look at the rebuilding O’s.

OTHER TEAMS:

• Pittsburgh Pirates
• Seattle Mariners
• Houston Astros

3 QUESTIONS

Will Jonathan Villar be on the team to start the season?

The concern among the fantasy community is that Villar might be traded in the offseason to a team where a) he wouldn’t have a locked in full-time gig and b) they don’t run as much, thus robbing some of his fantasy value. The 29-year old switch-hitter has enjoyed a nice rebirth with the Orioles, posting a nice 107 wRC+ over 950 PA with a very fantasy-relevant 61 SBs.

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With people already participating in 2020 drafts, I thought it was time to see where and if any positional tiers exist. I don’t believe in making up a tier where a dropoff doesn’t exist. I’m more looking for spots where for two or more rounds, a position should not even be in consideration to be drafted. Also, is there a point where the position just falls off and no one decent is left?

To set up the tiers, I used this 15-team Roto setup and our Depth Chart projections. I know everyone won’t agree with all the projections. I don’t, but they’ll provide a nice guideline for this discussion. It’s time to start with catchers.

Catcher

Tiers

• Tier 1. It’s four options and then wait.
• Tier 2. The rest of the options are evenly spaced until the end.

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