One of the biggest discussions around any draft gameplan is where to get your speed. Sure, you could try to ignore them, but I never want to go into a draft punting a category and leagues with an overall component like the NFBC’s Main Event and Online Championship make it so you can’t punt a category if you want a realistic shot at the overall grand prize.

To secure high end stolen bases, you really need to map out your draft and figure out exactly where they go. This piece aims to help with that by using The BAT X’s projection system along with the NFBC ADP. Teams needs around 120 SBs to be in the upper crust (I used the top 20% of Main Event leagues from 2019) and while the number is dropping yearly, it is a safe target to set for your drafts. It’s about 9 SBs per roster spots in the standard 14-player setup (2 C, 1B/3B/CI, 2B/SS/MI, 5 OF, UT) and there are only 87 players in The BAT X projected to reach that mark.

Of course when you draft someone with 20 SBs, they bring the average needed down, but it’s still alarming that not even 100 guys hit the average we need for every spot to reach our general target. Let’s see how everything breaks down:

THE KING

Wondering why Adalberto Mondesi is going so high? Here is your reason. His 52 projected SBs are 1.5x that of the next best guy (Turner, 35) which is why so many are willing to take on his AVG downside with a top 25 pick. He crept into the first round during at least one Main Event this past week, going 14th overall.

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Pardon the delay on these as they should’ve been up over a week ago, but I’ve updated the commentary and rankings since then so here’s the latest backstop ranks fresh off the press!

Other positions:

• 1B
• 2B
• SS
• 3B
• OF

Here’s my list.

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• Every few days, I’ll keep updating these Spring Training velocity readings.

American League

Astros

• Josh James’s (hip) recovery timeframe is between late April to late June.

Astros right-hander Josh James, who was slated to miss the start of the 2021 season after undergoing surgery to repair a labral tear in his left hip in October, had a “physical setback,” Baker said Wednesday. The manager didn’t divulge details but said James would be “fine in a few days.”
…
The recovery time for James’ procedure is approximately six to eight months, the team said previously. A sixth-month recovery would take James into late April, while an eight-month recovery would stretch into late June.

I’m not even sure James is worth drafting-and-IL-stashing. I expect he’ll come back as a reliever and will be immediately dropped. I’d rather spend the draft capital on someone useable.
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3/18/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Framber Valdez update
  • Mike Soroka
• Ketel Marte ankle soreness
• Jarred Kelenic returns on Wednesday
• Ramón Laureano tracking well, expected back next week

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Maximum Exit velocity is starting to get noticed more and more as the best single stat to measure a hitter’s raw power. While quite a bit has been written on it, the subject’s money quote is from Rob Arthur:

For every mile per hour above 108, a hitter is projected to gain about 6 points of OPS relative to their predicted number.

With several new Florida Spring Training ballparks getting publicly available Trackman, I sifted through all the games and found any players who set a new over 108 mph Exit Velocity high compared to the previous two seasons. Twenty-two players have seen improvement. Most of them had a limited number of plate appearances, so setting a new high should be expected. There are a few regulars who could see an improvement in 2021.

Alejandro Kirk
Combined PA: 25
2019 Max EV: NA
2020 Max EV: 107.4
Combined Max: 107.4
2021 Max EV: 110.3

Kirk has displayed power in the past and this jump is probably setting a baseline versus an actual power increase.

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The Pre-Season Recap Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

The focus of this podcast is on fantasy baseball strategy.

Today, we look back at the topics and highlights of our pre-season coverage. We give a preview of what you can look forward to on the show in the coming months.

Follow us on Twitter

• Ariel Cohen (@ATCNY)
• Reuven Guy (@mlbinjuryguru)
• Beat the Shift Podcast (@Beat_Shift_Pod)

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It is that time of year again! TGFBI concluded all 29 of their drafts and twitter is buzzing with draft boards and TGFBI chatter. If you don’t know what TGFBI is, it stands for The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. It is a collection of 29 15-team leagues with an overall component run by yours truly. To get into TGFBI, you must either be producing fantasy baseball related content, win a satellite league, or win a raffle that I put on during events like Podapolooza.

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3/16/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Maikel Franco to BAL (3:58)
• Bobby Witt Jr. soaring – 355 ADP in OC (7:35)
• Eugenio Suárez to SS/Mike Moustakas to 3B on Tuesday (15:53)
  • Jonathan India to 2B

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One of the toughest player types to analyze and decide on in fantasy drafts is the left-handed stud who can’t or hasn’t been given a real chance to hit against lefties and thus is a platoon risk. Losing that extra playing time eats into the counting categories. Every year I like to look at the projected lefty starters by division and get an idea of what these potential platoon bats might be facing. We will go division-by-division looking at the projected lefty starters in every rotation and then look at the potential left-handed platoon bats who could affected.

All info was gathered from the Roster Resource Depth Charts

AL EAST: 10

• John Means |BAL
• Keegan Akin | BAL
• Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS
• Martín Pérez | BOS
• Jordan Montgomery | NYY
• Rich Hill | TBR
• Ryan Yarbrough | TBR
• Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 | TOR
• Robbie Ray | TOR
• Steven Matz | TOR

With 10 projected lefties, the AL East has the most in baseball. It is a pretty strong group with Means, Rodriguez, Montgomery, Hill, Yarbrough, and Ryu all being drafted in just about every format while Ray, Matz, and Perez have had their big seasons (especially against lefties) and Akin held them to a .576 OPS in 27 PA last year.

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Drafts are in full swing and now I am 15+ drafts into the season, here are my current ranks for the outfield position for 2021. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball.

See my other ranks here: C 1B 2B SS 3B OF SP RP
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