There are many different available player types available this week from prospects to closers to decent two-start pitchers to old boring vets. It’ll be interesting to see how the market focuses its resources to balance needs and wants.  Some teams need to add a couple of closers while others are dealing with hitters who are day-to-day. Others might have several Nats on their team and could be losing one or more to the IL. It’s going to be exhausting but diligent FAAB prep this weekend.

In the following article, I’m going to at least cover the players in demand using CBS’s (40% or less initial ownership) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered by my preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

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1. Injuries

Keep track of these banged-up guys over the next couple of days to see if replacements will need to be rostered.

#MLB injuries from opening day:
Rosenthal (OAK) – shoulder
Donaldson (MIN) – hamstring
Senzel (CIN) – shoulder
Dozier (KC) – thumb
Barnes (LAD) – hand
S Sanchez (MIA) – shoulder

— Jesse Morse, MD (@DrJesseMorse) April 2, 2021

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A look around the league for the games of April 1st, 2021

DET 3 v. CLE 2

• Matthew Boyd went 5.7 scoreless, but did have 4 BB and just 2 Ks
• Shane Bieber salvaged his start with 12 Ks (6 IP/3 ER, 3 BB in 95 pit)
• Miguel Cabrera’s snowmer was pretty cool and puts him just 12 away from 500.
• Robbie Grossman was 0-1 w/3 BB and a SB – if they turn him loose, he has the OBP to steal 15+
• Gregory Soto got the first save attempt and converted, but only after a Roberto Perez 2-R HR

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I am one day in and already spending my winnings from this fantasy baseball season:

I’m 14th in the Main Event overall… is there a cash out option? pic.twitter.com/nQQsqZOVfr

— Justin Mason (@JustinMasonFWFB) April 2, 2021

On the Agenda:
1. COVID Issues
2. Closer Chaos
3. Quick Hits
4. Various News and Notes
5. Streaming Pitchers

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The Bold Predictions Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Scott Pianowski

Strategy Section

• 2021 Draft Trends
  • Starters pushed up
  • Reliever pricing
  • Prospects
• Adalberto Mondesi
  • Injury Update
  • The case for drafting him
  • The case against drafting him
    • Discussion of Risk and Risk-Adjusted Pricing
  • Comparison to Byron Buxton
  • Comparison to Carlos Gomez

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Podcast (beat-the-shift): Play in new window | Download

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4/1/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Trevor Rosenthal to IL
• Adalberto Mondesi to IL

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download

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Hopefully you enjoyed my earlier bold predictions piece earlier today. This one will be a tad bit bolder. 

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Opening day is upon us!

Starting this afternoon, Major League Baseball games will officially count for the 2021 season standings.

After a 60-game short season in 2020, baseball looks to drive us just a bit closer towards normalcy. Yes, there will still be abundant COVID protocols in effect, and yes – fan attendance will be restricted. But for most of us, the sun feels just a bit brighter today.

A large number of our fantasy baseball drafts and auctions this year were shifted to virtual venues. Aside from a larger online presence, the vast majority of fantasy baseball players had a somewhat normal draft season. Remember last year, when we essentially had two distinct baseball draft seasons (in February/March as well as in June/July)? Hopefully the 2021 season will proceed without major interruptions.

It is now time to share my 2021 bold predictions with you. One of the first fantasy baseball articles that I had ever written was the 2018 edition. I am proud to be back for the 4^th straight year, sharing with you a few unlikely events – that I believe have the chance to come true.

As usual, the ATC Projections have helped shape much of what is to come in this article. Some predictions stem from my own personal analysis on the player, or of a team situation. Other nuggets arise from blind optimism or the crossing of my fingers. These are all possibilities that could happen, that I feel will happen if things break just right.

As always – please remember: These are bold predictions, not crazy predictions. I am not going to predict the impossible. Raimel Tapia will not lead the majors in homers, and I won’t predict that. Khris Davis will not contend for a batting title, and I won’t consider that. Those are not bold predictions – those are impossible ones.

My definition of a bold prediction is one that lies roughly in the 70^th to 90^th range of percentile possible outcomes. If done right, one should expect to hit on some 10-30% of all bold predictions in the long-term. Any more outlandish than 10% would be miraculous, while any more probable than 30% would be too easy a guess.

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It has been a few years since I did a bold predictions piece here on Rotographs. It is typically a fun piece to do and people like them, but I have found that I am so focused on drafts and other content at this time of year, that I just run out of time. Forgive me if I am not as bold as I should be as it has been a while since I have done one of these, but I hope you enjoy them!

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Pitching can be the spot of our lineups where we experience the lowest degree of variance in a sport full of volatility. We’re not going to explore how to minimize variance, but how to make the best plays tailored for our lineups to fit the contests we’re playing using projections and leverage.

A lot of things factor into a pitcher scoring fantasy points via strikeouts, innings, and run prevention. A pitcher’s skill is pretty important, but what’s the best way to gauge a pitcher’s skill? The answer is mostly through the predictive analytics of their past performance, which ought to be distinguished from the descriptive analytics.

Projection

We get fantasy points for outs, Ks, and Ws (on FD, we also get the points for the QS); it’s that simple. We lose points for ER on both sites, baserunners on DK. Keep it simple. Find a predictive run prevention metric between xERA, FIP, xFIP, or SIERA. Decide between the per-nine rates or per-100 batter-faced stats like K/9 versus K%. I prefer xERA, based on the Statcast numbers, or SIERA, as they isolate that over which the pitcher has the most control. I prefer K/9 because K% can double-count for events already recognized in the run preventers, as we’re really just looking to project Ks with that metric.

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