Justin Mason’s Bold Predictions Part 2

Hopefully you enjoyed my earlier bold predictions piece earlier today. This one will be a tad bit bolder. 

1. Manuel Margot is a top 30 outfielder. 

Player A: 15 HR, 25 SBs, .256 avg

Player B: 18 HR, 21 SBs, .275 avg

Player A is Margot’s Steamer 600 projection and Player B is Starling Marte’s Steamer 600 projection. Clearly, you can’t guarantee 600 plate appearances for Margot, I love him this season considering he has been going outside the top 200. His defense should give him some leeway and with the injury risk on the Rays, it is not unlikely he finds his way to 600+ plate appearances.  

 

2. Patrick Corbin is a top 15 SP

I know 2020 was alarming, but Corbin has talked publicly about how the ramping up and then down and then back messed with his season. I tend to give him the benefit of the doubt especially as his velocity seems to be ok recently in spring. He is a season removed from being a top 20 guy and has been working on using two new pitches in spring training. 

 

3. Chris Martin leads the Braves in saves. 

I know everyone believes that Will Smith is the guy considering his contract and how well he has pitched this spring, but Martin was fantastic last season and has been even better than Smith this spring, striking out six batters in three innings pitched while not allowing a base runner. This could easily be a committee, but I think in the end, Martin gets the majority of the saves in Atlanta. 

 

4. Cedric Mullins is a top 60 outfielder. 

Ok, so this one isn’t as bold as it was when I first started talking up Mullins in October, but he is still going as the 95th outfielder off the board in Main Events and that is up a fair amount from the beginning of the draft season. He has a homer and three stolen bases in spring and has led off a lot this spring. With DJ Stewart injured, there isn’t much competition for his spot in the outfield right now. He could be a 12/25 guy if he gets to 600 plate appearances. 

 

5. Jeff McNeil is not a top 150 player

McNeil started off spring training with a bang, hitting a monster home run and the hype train was off and rolling. Since then, he has five total hits and one walk in 53 plate appearances. The dream of him leading off is now gone and one has to wonder if his power outage last year and lack of stolen bases are more legit than many thought. I know he is triple eligible and we should not overreact to spring numbers, but I was already not on the bandwagon prior to this abysmal spring and with the depth the Mets have, he could find himself on the bench if he doesn’t turn things around early in the season. 

 

6. Trevor Bauer is not a top 20 starter

We have seen this movie before. Bauer has a breakout season and then tinkers to his own detriment and ends up disappointing. I just don’t trust him. He reminds of BJ Upton who would be on a roll and then for no reason change what he was doing and go completely cold. Bauer clearly has the ability to be a stud, but I am afraid he will get in his own way. I think he could probably volume his way into being a top 20-30 guy, but I am banking on the fact it may not be as good of volume in the NL West than it was in the NL Central. 

 

7. Trevor Rosenthal leads the American League in saves.

After being traded to the Padres last year, Rosenthal was the best reliever in baseball. He did not allow a single earned run during his time in San Diego and only allowed one walk and three hits while striking out 17 in 10 innings. He is now the clear closer in Oakland which is a great place to pitch. I could easily see him as a guy that have an obscene strikeout rate and a ton of saves. 

 

8. Mike Soroka is not a top 100 pitcher. 

I love Mike Soroka. I think he will be someone I am targeting in 2022, but with him unlikely to be pitching in the Majors until May and likely will be somewhat limited once he returns, he won’t have the volume to make up for the fact that he is not a big strikeout guy. I could be wrong as he did throw two innings on Tuesday and he did look good at times, but I just can’t trust it coming off of a lost season. I do hope I am wrong though. 

 

9. Dylan Cease is a top 40 starter.

Cease has always had the stuff, but he made some mechanical changes this offseason and the command and control has been much improved. He has thrown 17 innings this spring with 22 strikeout and only seven walks. In his last outing, he struck out 11 with no walks in 5.1 innings. He could definitely disappoint, but I am ready to be hurt again. 

 

10. Stephen Strasburg is not a top 50 starter this season. 

In yesterday’s Roto Riteup, I wrote about the concerns I had over Strasburg’s last outing in which his command, control, and velocity were very bad which makes you wonder if the tear in his calf is affecting him more than he is letting on. However, it is the combination of that, his offseason carpal tunnel surgery and a long history of injuries makes it hard for me to believe he will be able to hold up for a season a year after only throwing five total innings. He clearly has a ton of talent, but the risk is just so great. 

 

Was I bold enough? What are your bold predictions for 2021?





Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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Prophet of the Sandlot
2 years ago

Rodon, Ray, Cease, and Richards significantly outperform their ADP…..and the White Sox lose to the Dodgers in the World Series.